Idaho
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#187
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#190
Pace66.0#273
Improvement+0.6#138

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#149
First Shot+2.0#122
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#267
Layup/Dunks-4.8#324
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.4#3
Freethrows+0.3#166
Improvement+0.8#117

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#254
First Shot-5.3#339
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#42
Layups/Dunks-1.3#223
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#314
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#220
Freethrows-0.6#220
Improvement-0.2#210
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 12.6% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 49.6% 67.5% 42.1%
.500 or above in Conference 62.3% 71.4% 58.5%
Conference Champion 13.2% 18.2% 11.1%
Last Place in Conference 7.7% 5.4% 8.7%
First Four0.7% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round9.4% 12.5% 8.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Away) - 29.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 75 - 10
Quad 410 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 158 @Washington St. W 83-81 32%     1 - 0 +4.8 +7.7 -3.0
  Wed, Nov 12 262 @San Diego L 74-78 53%     1 - 1 -6.7 +1.8 -8.7
  Sat, Nov 15 102 @UC San Diego L 67-75 18%     1 - 2 -0.2 -3.7 +3.5
  Wed, Nov 26 253 Cal St. Northridge W 78-64 62%     2 - 2 +8.8 +0.1 +8.1
  Fri, Nov 28 133 Sam Houston St. L 68-94 36%     2 - 3 -24.2 +0.5 -27.3
  Wed, Dec 3 340 North Dakota W 90-58 87%     3 - 3 +17.9 +12.3 +5.8
  Sat, Dec 6 147 @South Dakota St. L 69-75 30%    
  Wed, Dec 10 56 @Notre Dame L 63-78 9%    
  Sun, Dec 21 243 @Cal Poly L 80-81 48%    
  Tue, Dec 23 280 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-72 55%    
  Sat, Jan 3 251 Eastern Washington W 80-74 70%    
  Thu, Jan 8 197 Montana W 78-75 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 152 Montana St. W 71-70 54%    
  Wed, Jan 14 167 Idaho St. W 69-67 57%    
  Sat, Jan 17 192 @Weber St. L 74-77 40%    
  Thu, Jan 22 274 Sacramento St. W 79-72 74%    
  Sat, Jan 24 156 Portland St. W 73-72 54%    
  Thu, Jan 29 151 @Northern Colorado L 71-76 32%    
  Sat, Jan 31 263 @Northern Arizona W 73-72 52%    
  Thu, Feb 5 152 @Montana St. L 68-73 33%    
  Sat, Feb 7 197 @Montana L 75-78 41%    
  Thu, Feb 12 192 Weber St. W 77-74 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 167 Idaho St. W 69-67 57%    
  Thu, Feb 19 156 @Portland St. L 70-75 33%    
  Sat, Feb 21 274 @Sacramento St. W 76-75 54%    
  Thu, Feb 26 263 Northern Arizona W 76-69 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 151 Northern Colorado W 74-73 52%    
  Mon, Mar 2 251 @Eastern Washington W 77-76 50%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.5 3.5 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 13.2 1st
2nd 0.5 3.0 4.4 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.4 5.3 2.8 0.6 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 5.8 3.1 0.3 11.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 3.0 0.6 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.7 4.8 6.9 9.5 11.7 12.4 12.7 11.5 9.5 7.4 4.7 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 98.9% 1.3    1.2 0.1
15-3 93.0% 2.3    2.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 75.1% 3.5    2.5 1.0 0.1
13-5 47.5% 3.5    1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 19.8% 1.9    0.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.2% 13.2 8.0 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 32.5% 32.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.3% 38.5% 38.5% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
15-3 2.5% 29.5% 29.5% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.8
14-4 4.7% 27.2% 27.2% 13.7 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.4
13-5 7.4% 21.6% 21.6% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 5.8
12-6 9.5% 17.1% 17.1% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.1 7.8
11-7 11.5% 11.8% 11.8% 14.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 10.1
10-8 12.7% 8.1% 8.1% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 11.7
9-9 12.4% 5.9% 5.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 11.7
8-10 11.7% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.3
7-11 9.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.3
6-12 6.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 6.8
5-13 4.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.8
4-14 2.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.1 3.1 1.5 90.3 0.0%