Idaho
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#271
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#257
Pace65.4#257
Improvement-0.3#212

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#155
First Shot-0.1#175
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#132
Layup/Dunks-0.8#208
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#53
Freethrows-2.3#312
Improvement-0.9#226

Defense
Total Defense-6.7#346
First Shot-6.6#348
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#200
Layups/Dunks-0.9#209
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#343
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#253
Freethrows-1.4#277
Improvement+0.6#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 9.8% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.4% 9.8% 0.0%
First Round1.8% 5.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 49 - 811 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 229   UC Davis L 75-79 51%     0 - 1 -10.3 +1.1 -11.2
  Nov 11, 2024 124   @ Washington St. L 67-90 15%     0 - 2 -17.9 -8.5 -8.2
  Nov 16, 2024 21   @ BYU L 71-95 2%     0 - 3 -5.3 +2.1 -6.8
  Nov 23, 2024 290   Southern Utah L 67-82 55%     0 - 4 -22.2 +6.1 -31.6
  Nov 24, 2024 309   @ San Diego L 61-68 49%     0 - 5 -12.9 -13.8 +0.9
  Nov 30, 2024 152   UC Riverside W 80-68 35%     1 - 5 +9.8 +13.1 -2.0
  Dec 04, 2024 235   @ UMKC W 82-77 33%     2 - 5 +3.5 +12.9 -9.3
  Dec 07, 2024 87   @ Oregon St. L 62-78 9%     2 - 6 -7.0 -3.0 -5.8
  Dec 15, 2024 45   UC San Diego L 56-80 9%     2 - 7 -15.0 -9.5 -6.5
  Dec 18, 2024 229   @ UC Davis L 66-74 31%     2 - 8 -8.9 -3.2 -5.6
  Dec 21, 2024 293   @ Pacific W 95-72 45%     3 - 8 +18.4 +25.5 -5.8
  Jan 02, 2025 185   Montana St. W 69-64 43%     4 - 8 1 - 0 +0.9 -5.6 +6.5
  Jan 04, 2025 178   Montana L 71-73 40%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -5.6 -4.7 -0.9
  Jan 09, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. W 80-67 59%     5 - 9 2 - 1 +4.6 +16.1 -9.7
  Jan 11, 2025 200   @ Portland St. L 63-75 26%     5 - 10 2 - 2 -11.3 -1.8 -10.3
  Jan 18, 2025 291   Eastern Washington W 83-76 65%     6 - 10 3 - 2 -3.0 +8.7 -11.4
  Jan 20, 2025 178   @ Montana L 67-72 23%     6 - 11 3 - 3 -3.1 -2.0 -1.5
  Jan 23, 2025 137   Northern Colorado W 77-76 33%     7 - 11 4 - 3 -0.4 +7.6 -8.0
  Jan 25, 2025 244   Northern Arizona L 72-80 56%     7 - 12 4 - 4 -15.5 +0.6 -16.8
  Jan 30, 2025 283   @ Weber St. W 82-74 43%     8 - 12 5 - 4 +3.7 +11.9 -7.8
  Feb 01, 2025 205   @ Idaho St. L 71-87 27%     8 - 13 5 - 5 -15.7 +7.3 -25.2
  Feb 06, 2025 200   Portland St. L 69-76 45%     8 - 14 5 - 6 -11.7 -4.7 -6.9
  Feb 08, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 78-76 77%     9 - 14 6 - 6 -11.9 -2.2 -9.8
  Feb 15, 2025 291   @ Eastern Washington L 73-75 44%     9 - 15 6 - 7 -6.6 +4.0 -10.8
  Feb 20, 2025 244   @ Northern Arizona W 83-78 35%     10 - 15 7 - 7 +2.9 +11.3 -8.1
  Feb 22, 2025 137   @ Northern Colorado L 74-92 17%     10 - 16 7 - 8 -14.0 +7.1 -22.6
  Feb 27, 2025 205   Idaho St. L 65-69 46%     10 - 17 7 - 9 -9.1 -5.9 -3.5
  Mar 01, 2025 283   Weber St. W 81-79 OT 64%     11 - 17 8 - 9 -7.7 +2.1 -9.9
  Mar 03, 2025 185   @ Montana St. L 60-75 24%     11 - 18 8 - 10 -13.7 -7.0 -8.1
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 100.0% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 3.4 96.6
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 16.0 3.4 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.4% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 24.1%
Lose Out 65.8%