Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
155 Montana St. 21.6%   15   0 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 14 12 - 6 +0.2      +1.0 148 -0.8 194 70.5 140 -10.6 309 0.0 1
173 Northern Colorado 18.0%   1 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 -0.8      +0.7 162 -1.5 222 73.1 79 +2.4 151 0.0 1
211 Montana 12.0%   0 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -2.5      +0.5 165 -3.0 269 65.5 287 +1.9 161 0.0 1
218 Portland St. 11.2%   1 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -2.9      -2.0 227 -1.0 198 84.7 3 +2.9 143 0.0 1
225 Weber St. 10.2%   0 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -3.1      -1.7 216 -1.5 223 64.4 317 -7.0 283 0.0 1
236 Idaho St. 8.9%   1 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 14 9 - 9 -3.7      -4.6 306 +0.9 137 62.5 341 -4.4 247 0.0 1
245 Eastern Washington 7.2%   1 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 18 9 - 9 -4.2      +0.7 161 -4.9 327 74.6 63 -6.5 277 0.0 1
277 Northern Arizona 5.0%   1 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 15 8 - 10 -5.9      -2.6 251 -3.3 284 65.4 292 +3.7 122 0.0 1
287 Idaho 3.8%   0 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -6.5      -2.5 248 -4.0 303 67.6 238 -11.2 312 0.0 1
307 Sacramento St. 2.1%   0 - 3 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -8.0      -6.5 343 -1.5 227 62.0 347 -15.2 344 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Montana St. 3.2 30.6 19.3 14.4 10.7 8.3 5.9 4.6 3.2 2.0 1.0
Northern Colorado 3.6 24.5 17.8 14.0 11.3 9.4 7.7 5.8 4.5 3.2 1.8
Montana 4.5 14.8 14.1 13.0 12.2 10.9 9.9 8.6 7.3 5.5 3.7
Portland St. 4.7 13.4 12.9 12.4 11.6 11.1 9.9 9.2 7.9 6.6 5.0
Weber St. 4.8 12.2 12.3 12.5 11.9 11.3 10.2 9.7 8.4 6.8 4.7
Idaho St. 5.1 9.8 11.1 11.6 11.4 11.7 11.3 10.2 9.5 7.9 5.5
Eastern Washington 5.4 8.2 9.6 10.4 11.3 11.7 11.6 11.3 10.6 9.0 6.5
Northern Arizona 6.3 5.1 6.5 7.7 8.7 9.6 10.8 12.0 12.9 13.5 13.2
Idaho 6.6 3.7 5.2 6.6 7.9 9.5 10.9 12.3 13.9 14.9 15.1
Sacramento St. 7.4 1.9 3.1 4.5 5.9 7.2 9.0 11.5 14.7 18.3 23.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Montana St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.1 6.4 8.6 10.9 12.5 13.2 12.5 10.9 8.1 5.0 2.3 0.6
Northern Colorado 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.8 5.7 7.7 9.8 11.6 12.3 12.0 11.2 9.1 6.4 3.8 1.6 0.4
Montana 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.4 6.3 8.4 10.5 11.6 12.2 11.5 10.3 8.0 6.2 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.1
Portland St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.2 4.9 7.0 8.8 10.6 11.8 11.6 11.2 9.6 7.5 5.1 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.2
Weber St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.3 5.4 7.2 9.4 10.8 12.0 12.0 11.1 9.5 7.3 4.6 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1
Idaho St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.8 5.9 8.3 10.0 11.8 12.1 12.0 10.4 8.6 6.1 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.1
Eastern Washington 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.4 7.0 9.3 10.9 12.3 12.5 11.3 9.7 7.3 5.2 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
Northern Arizona 8 - 10 0.3 1.3 2.9 5.3 7.6 9.5 11.2 12.4 11.3 10.5 8.8 7.1 5.0 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Idaho 7 - 11 0.3 1.5 3.4 5.9 8.8 10.5 12.0 12.7 11.7 10.2 8.2 6.0 4.0 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 6 - 12 0.8 2.9 5.7 8.8 11.5 12.8 13.1 11.9 10.1 7.6 6.0 3.9 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Montana St. 30.6% 21.6 7.0 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northern Colorado 24.5% 16.6 6.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Montana 14.8% 9.4 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Portland St. 13.4% 8.5 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 12.2% 7.4 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Idaho St. 9.8% 5.8 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 8.2% 4.8 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 5.1% 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho 3.7% 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 1.9% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Montana St. 21.6% 21.6% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 5.4 6.0 5.3 78.4 0.0%
Northern Colorado 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 5.3 4.8 2.6 82.0 0.0%
Montana 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.1 3.5 2.9 88.0 0.0%
Portland St. 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.9 3.4 2.6 88.8 0.0%
Weber St. 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.0 3.8 89.8 0.0%
Idaho St. 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.9 3.4 91.1 0.0%
Eastern Washington 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.4 92.8 0.0%
Northern Arizona 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.8 95.0 0.0%
Idaho 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.5 96.2 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 97.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Montana St. 21.6% 3.0% 20.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 18.0% 1.1% 17.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 12.0% 1.8% 11.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 11.2% 1.2% 10.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 10.2% 2.4% 9.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 8.9% 2.0% 8.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 7.2% 2.4% 6.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 5.0% 1.0% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 3.8% 1.8% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.1% 1.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 92.4% 0.9 7.6 92.4
2nd Round 5.4% 0.1 94.6 5.4
Sweet Sixteen 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0