Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
166 Northern Colorado 26.9%   15   11 - 5 6 - 0 19 - 9 14 - 4 -0.2      +2.8 104 -2.9 263 73.1 68 +5.0 99 +11.8 1
180 Montana St. 18.6%   6 - 12 2 - 4 14 - 16 10 - 8 -0.9      -0.9 202 +0.1 169 67.6 214 -5.0 247 -6.7 7
217 Idaho St. 12.1%   5 - 8 3 - 2 12 - 14 10 - 8 -3.1      -1.8 224 -1.3 218 62.8 329 -4.6 241 -1.3 3
226 Montana 10.3%   8 - 8 4 - 2 15 - 13 11 - 7 -3.7      -1.1 206 -2.5 253 69.4 157 +1.2 149 +0.9 2
227 Portland St. 9.6%   8 - 7 3 - 2 15 - 13 10 - 8 -3.8      -3.6 270 -0.2 181 72.2 88 -1.6 199 -2.7 4
237 Weber St. 6.8%   4 - 12 1 - 4 11 - 18 8 - 10 -4.3      -0.3 187 -4.1 292 64.4 293 -6.4 270 -9.9 9
246 Idaho 6.5%   6 - 10 3 - 2 12 - 17 9 - 9 -4.8      +0.6 161 -5.4 331 65.0 268 -5.0 246 -3.4 5
257 Eastern Washington 5.0%   4 - 12 2 - 3 10 - 19 8 - 10 -5.4      -1.3 212 -4.1 294 70.6 125 -6.9 277 -6.5 6
264 Northern Arizona 4.1%   7 - 8 2 - 4 12 - 15 7 - 11 -5.8      -2.2 228 -3.6 278 69.1 168 -5.7 262 -9.9 8
337 Sacramento St. 0.3%   2 - 13 1 - 4 5 - 23 4 - 14 -11.4      -9.2 357 -2.2 243 62.0 341 -15.5 352 -12.7 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Colorado 1.4 76.7 13.3 5.4 2.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0
Montana St. 4.1 6.6 19.0 19.8 17.3 13.0 10.8 7.2 4.0 1.9 0.4
Idaho St. 3.9 10.9 22.2 18.0 14.3 11.0 9.7 6.8 4.4 2.3 0.4
Montana 3.5 13.0 24.9 20.5 14.8 10.8 7.7 5.0 2.4 0.9 0.1
Portland St. 4.4 6.9 17.2 15.0 15.3 13.1 11.7 9.7 7.0 3.7 0.5
Weber St. 6.3 1.1 4.8 7.6 9.9 12.2 14.0 15.5 16.8 13.2 4.7
Idaho 5.1 4.5 10.5 12.5 14.2 15.1 13.8 12.1 10.4 5.7 1.2
Eastern Washington 6.2 1.6 5.3 7.2 10.2 12.5 14.4 16.2 15.7 14.1 3.0
Northern Arizona 7.1 0.6 2.0 4.0 6.2 8.6 11.9 15.3 19.7 24.5 7.2
Sacramento St. 9.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.5 7.7 18.3 67.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Colorado 14 - 4 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.6 7.5 12.7 18.4 20.3 17.8 12.2 5.1 1.0
Montana St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 5.8 11.6 18.0 21.2 19.2 13.4 5.8 1.3
Idaho St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 6.0 10.7 15.0 18.0 17.7 13.9 9.1 3.9 1.6 0.2
Montana 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.7 8.6 13.8 19.0 20.4 16.3 10.6 4.5 1.4 0.3
Portland St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.4 9.2 13.5 17.9 18.2 14.9 10.5 6.2 2.3 0.5 0.1
Weber St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.5 7.8 13.2 17.0 18.5 16.7 11.3 6.9 2.6 0.7 0.1
Idaho 9 - 9 0.1 0.9 2.9 7.4 12.2 16.9 19.1 17.4 12.1 6.3 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.1
Eastern Washington 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 3.2 7.4 13.0 17.0 19.2 16.8 11.7 6.6 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
Northern Arizona 7 - 11 0.5 2.8 7.1 13.3 17.9 18.9 17.1 11.7 6.6 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
Sacramento St. 4 - 14 5.4 15.6 21.5 22.1 16.6 10.2 5.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Colorado 76.7% 62.6 11.1 2.4 0.5 0.1
Montana St. 6.6% 2.4 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.1
Idaho St. 10.9% 4.9 4.3 1.3 0.4 0.1
Montana 13.0% 6.2 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.1
Portland St. 6.9% 3.2 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.1
Weber St. 1.1% 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
Idaho 4.5% 2.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Eastern Washington 1.6% 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Colorado 26.9% 26.9% 0.0% 15   0.1 1.1 5.8 11.6 7.6 0.8 73.1 0.0%
Montana St. 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 7.4 7.5 81.4 0.0%
Idaho St. 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.3 4.4 87.9 0.0%
Montana 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.7 4.3 89.7 0.0%
Portland St. 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.0 4.6 90.4 0.0%
Weber St. 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 5.8 93.2 0.0%
Idaho 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.9 93.5 0.0%
Eastern Washington 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 4.4 95.0 0.0%
Northern Arizona 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 95.9 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northern Colorado 26.9% 0.1% 26.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 18.6% 4.3% 17.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 12.1% 2.1% 11.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 10.3% 1.5% 9.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 9.6% 1.8% 8.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 6.8% 4.9% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 6.5% 3.5% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 5.0% 4.0% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 4.1% 2.2% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 90.0% 0.9 10.0 90.0
2nd Round 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0