Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
151 Northern Colorado 30.0%   15   17 - 8 12 - 3 19 - 9 14 - 4 +0.6      +2.7 98 -2.1 230 72.2 74 +2.7 126 +3.5 2
182 Montana 21.5%   16 - 8 12 - 2 18 - 10 14 - 4 -1.2      +1.8 115 -3.0 254 67.3 203 +4.0 107 +5.5 1
188 Montana St. 14.7%   11 - 15 7 - 7 13 - 17 9 - 9 -1.6      -1.4 213 -0.2 179 66.4 227 -3.8 227 -4.4 6
201 Portland St. 12.7%   13 - 11 8 - 6 16 - 12 11 - 7 -2.2      -3.3 265 +1.1 141 71.1 97 -1.8 190 -2.1 3
229 Idaho St. 7.9%   9 - 13 7 - 7 11 - 15 9 - 9 -3.6      -1.2 207 -2.5 241 64.6 278 -5.0 248 -3.7 4
253 Idaho 4.8%   10 - 15 7 - 7 12 - 17 9 - 9 -5.2      +1.2 133 -6.4 344 65.8 243 -5.0 249 -4.4 5
264 Northern Arizona 3.0%   11 - 13 6 - 9 12 - 15 7 - 11 -5.5      -2.4 238 -3.1 259 67.2 205 -5.2 255 -6.6 8
265 Eastern Washington 3.7%   8 - 17 6 - 8 10 - 19 8 - 10 -5.5      -2.3 236 -3.2 267 69.0 158 -6.1 270 -5.7 7
297 Weber St. 1.5%   6 - 19 3 - 11 7 - 22 4 - 14 -7.6      -2.7 247 -4.9 317 64.8 272 -9.3 313 -12.0 10
332 Sacramento St. 0.3%   4 - 20 3 - 11 5 - 23 4 - 14 -10.7      -7.1 341 -3.6 283 63.8 294 -13.1 341 -11.5 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Colorado 1.4 59.2 40.8
Montana 1.3 71.7 28.3
Montana St. 4.3 30.2 30.7 23.9 11.0 3.9 0.4
Portland St. 3.3 0.0 1.4 77.4 14.2 5.9 1.0 0.1
Idaho St. 4.4 22.8 37.5 22.0 10.2 5.5 2.1
Idaho 5.2 9.5 22.9 23.9 28.2 13.5 2.1
Northern Arizona 7.0 0.2 2.8 7.4 19.5 28.8 41.2 0.3
Eastern Washington 6.4 1.7 8.3 14.5 25.8 28.7 20.7 0.4
Weber St. 9.2 0.2 0.7 4.7 72.8 21.6
Sacramento St. 9.5 0.0 0.8 49.9 49.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Colorado 14 - 4 2.5 19.5 43.7 34.3
Montana 14 - 4 3.1 16.9 37.0 32.2 10.9
Montana St. 9 - 9 2.4 13.6 33.6 36.6 13.9
Portland St. 11 - 7 1.2 11.3 31.3 37.5 18.7
Idaho St. 9 - 9 2.5 14.6 34.7 35.5 12.7
Idaho 9 - 9 9.2 32.1 38.8 17.3 2.7
Northern Arizona 7 - 11 17.1 41.9 32.5 8.5
Eastern Washington 8 - 10 7.8 28.3 38.4 21.2 4.3
Weber St. 4 - 14 21.2 37.6 28.6 10.9 1.8
Sacramento St. 4 - 14 38.8 40.4 17.2 3.4 0.2




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Colorado 59.2% 28.3 31.0 0.0
Montana 71.7% 40.8 31.0 0.0
Montana St.
Portland St. 0.0% 0.0
Idaho St.
Idaho
Northern Arizona
Eastern Washington
Weber St.
Sacramento St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Colorado 30.0% 30.0% 0.0% 15   1.2 7.0 14.7 6.8 0.2 70.0 0.0%
Montana 21.5% 21.5% 0.0% 0.2 2.3 8.9 9.4 0.7 78.5 0.0%
Montana St. 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 5.3 8.7 85.3 0.0%
Portland St. 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.1 1.5 6.0 5.1 87.3 0.0%
Idaho St. 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.2 92.1 0.0%
Idaho 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.2 4.6 95.2 0.0%
Northern Arizona 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.4 2.5 97.1 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 3.7 96.3 0.0%
Weber St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5 98.5 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northern Colorado 30.0% 0.0% 30.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 21.5% 0.0% 21.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 14.7% 5.2% 12.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 12.7% 1.5% 12.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 7.9% 3.1% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 4.8% 4.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 3.0% 1.7% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.7% 3.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 91.0% 0.9 9.0 91.0
2nd Round 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0