Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
184 Northern Colorado 15.5%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -1.7      +0.4 151 -2.1 243 70.8 119 0.0 121 0.0 1
192 Montana 13.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 10 - 8 -2.0      -0.2 173 -1.8 227 67.6 211 0.0 121 0.0 1
199 Portland St. 13.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 8 -2.3      -3.3 268 +1.0 131 70.2 130 0.0 121 0.0 1
206 Idaho 12.4%   1 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -2.5      +1.4 118 -3.9 309 66.0 246 +16.4 6 0.0 1
207 Eastern Washington 12.5%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 8 -2.6      -0.1 168 -2.5 260 67.6 210 +5.3 60 0.0 1
210 Montana St. 12.3%   0 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -2.6      -0.6 179 -2.1 238 65.2 274 -4.6 316 0.0 1
263 Northern Arizona 5.8%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -5.5      -1.7 220 -3.8 307 66.6 233 -11.3 342 0.0 1
274 Sacramento St. 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 10 -5.9      -3.3 270 -2.6 262 64.2 300 0.0 121 0.0 1
283 Weber St. 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -6.6      -3.4 272 -3.3 288 64.6 293 0.0 121 0.0 1
288 Idaho St. 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -6.9      -4.2 304 -2.7 268 65.3 273 0.0 121 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Colorado 4.1 20.0 15.2 13.0 11.2 10.2 8.8 7.4 6.2 4.8 3.3
Montana 4.3 18.2 14.7 12.8 11.7 10.0 8.9 7.8 6.7 5.4 3.8
Portland St. 4.4 17.4 14.0 12.6 11.3 10.4 9.4 7.9 7.2 5.8 4.0
Idaho 4.3 16.8 14.8 13.5 11.8 10.4 9.7 8.0 6.5 5.1 3.6
Eastern Washington 4.5 15.5 13.8 12.5 11.5 11.2 9.9 8.6 7.3 5.8 4.0
Montana St. 4.6 15.1 13.3 12.8 12.2 10.6 9.8 8.9 7.6 5.9 4.0
Northern Arizona 6.0 6.3 7.6 8.7 9.5 10.5 11.0 11.8 12.0 11.8 11.0
Sacramento St. 6.2 6.0 7.0 7.8 9.0 10.0 10.6 11.7 12.1 12.9 13.0
Weber St. 6.5 4.6 5.8 7.0 8.0 8.9 10.3 11.7 12.6 15.4 15.8
Idaho St. 6.8 3.6 4.8 6.1 7.4 8.4 10.0 11.7 13.5 16.0 18.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Colorado 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.1 7.2 8.9 9.9 10.8 11.6 10.5 9.3 7.5 5.5 3.2 1.7 0.5
Montana 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.2 5.7 7.3 8.9 10.1 11.1 11.1 10.1 9.0 7.0 5.0 3.2 1.4 0.4
Portland St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.3 6.3 7.7 9.4 10.5 11.0 10.6 10.1 8.5 6.9 4.7 2.9 1.2 0.3
Idaho 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.7 9.5 10.7 11.3 11.5 10.7 9.1 6.8 4.3 2.6 1.2 0.3
Eastern Washington 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.4 6.4 8.2 9.8 11.4 11.4 10.8 9.8 8.5 6.0 4.3 2.4 1.0 0.2
Montana St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.6 6.5 8.5 9.9 10.9 11.4 11.1 10.1 8.0 6.0 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.2
Northern Arizona 8 - 10 0.2 1.2 2.6 4.8 6.4 8.7 10.5 11.2 11.3 10.6 9.3 7.9 5.9 4.2 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
Sacramento St. 8 - 10 0.4 1.7 3.2 5.4 7.2 9.5 10.5 10.9 11.0 10.4 8.9 6.8 5.5 3.9 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
Weber St. 7 - 11 0.7 2.1 4.2 6.3 8.7 10.5 11.1 11.1 10.7 9.5 7.6 6.3 4.7 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
Idaho St. 7 - 11 0.8 2.6 4.6 7.6 9.9 10.8 11.4 11.7 10.4 8.8 7.2 5.5 3.7 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Colorado 20.0% 13.6 4.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Montana 18.2% 12.3 4.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
Portland St. 17.4% 11.8 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Idaho 16.8% 11.0 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 15.5% 10.0 4.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Montana St. 15.1% 9.7 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
Northern Arizona 6.3% 3.6 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
Sacramento St. 6.0% 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Weber St. 4.6% 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho St. 3.6% 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Colorado 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.6 3.9 3.3 2.7 84.5 0.0%
Montana 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.1 3.6 3.1 2.2 86.3 0.0%
Portland St. 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 3.5 3.1 2.4 86.3 0.0%
Idaho 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.2 3.4 2.7 1.4 87.6 0.0%
Eastern Washington 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.4 87.5 0.0%
Montana St. 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.3 3.3 3.0 87.7 0.0%
Northern Arizona 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 2.7 94.2 0.0%
Sacramento St. 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.2 94.2 0.0%
Weber St. 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.7 95.7 0.0%
Idaho St. 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.6 96.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northern Colorado 15.5% 1.5% 15.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 13.7% 1.2% 13.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 13.8% 1.3% 13.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 12.4% 0.7% 12.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 12.5% 1.6% 12.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 12.3% 1.7% 12.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 5.8% 1.7% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 5.8% 1.4% 5.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 4.3% 1.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 4.0% 1.2% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 95.0% 1.0 5.0 91.2 3.8
2nd Round 5.1% 0.1 94.9 5.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0