Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
157 Northern Colorado 16.0%   14   6 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 8 -0.3      +0.3 156 -0.6 182 70.8 150 +5.0 107 0.0 1
164 Montana St. 14.8%   2 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -0.6      -0.7 180 +0.1 164 65.2 294 -6.2 268 0.0 1
168 Idaho St. 13.6%   4 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -0.8      -0.5 175 -0.4 174 62.5 345 +0.5 163 0.0 1
171 Portland St. 13.4%   3 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 8 -1.1      -3.4 258 +2.3 102 70.2 165 -1.2 192 0.0 1
173 Idaho 12.8%   4 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -1.1      +1.8 125 -2.9 264 66.0 275 +1.6 143 0.0 1
195 Weber St. 9.6%   3 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -2.2      -0.3 168 -1.9 230 71.5 134 -4.7 238 0.0 1
206 Montana 8.0%   3 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 9 -2.7      +0.1 160 -2.9 263 72.9 100 -4.4 237 0.0 1
234 Eastern Washington 5.2%   1 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 20 8 - 10 -4.2      0.0 162 -4.3 322 72.5 111 -12.9 334 0.0 1
251 Northern Arizona 3.9%   2 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -5.0      -2.7 242 -2.3 243 67.6 235 -5.0 244 0.0 1
278 Sacramento St. 2.7%   1 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 11 -6.1      -4.0 277 -2.1 236 77.0 33 -8.0 288 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 164 Montana St. 82 169 St. Thomas 74   
Wed, Dec 3 157 Northern Colorado 75 233 Nebraska Omaha 70   
Wed, Dec 3 206 Montana 72 155 North Dakota St. 81   
Wed, Dec 3 294 Denver 93 234 Eastern Washington 89   
Wed, Dec 3 168 Idaho St. 68 346 UMKC 59   
Wed, Dec 3 171 Portland St. 77 270 South Dakota 71   
Wed, Dec 3 251 Northern Arizona 62 153 South Dakota St. 75   
Wed, Dec 3 173 Idaho 90 337 North Dakota 58   
Wed, Dec 3 301 Oral Roberts 66 195 Weber St. 92   
Sat, Dec 6 173 Idaho 84 153 South Dakota St. 81   
Sat, Dec 6 233 Nebraska Omaha 60 171 Portland St. 55   
Sat, Dec 6 155 North Dakota St. 69 251 Northern Arizona 68   
Sat, Dec 6 157 Northern Colorado 89 270 South Dakota 87   
Sat, Dec 6 294 Denver 79 168 Idaho St. 93   
Sat, Dec 6 164 Montana St. 68 301 Oral Roberts 72   
Sat, Dec 6 206 Montana 79 337 North Dakota 75   
Sat, Dec 6 234 Eastern Washington 90 346 UMKC 66   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 169 St. Thomas 78 195 Weber St. 74 66%   
Tue, Dec 9 66 Arizona St. 83 251 Northern Arizona 67 93%   
Wed, Dec 10 168 Idaho St. 64 83 Utah Valley 74 84%   
Wed, Dec 10 173 Idaho 64 58 Notre Dame 78 89%   
Wed, Dec 10 346 UMKC 71 195 Weber St. 78 75%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Colorado 3.9 21.6 16.7 13.4 11.6 10.0 8.6 6.4 5.4 4.0 2.4
Montana St. 4.0 19.7 16.0 13.9 12.1 10.1 8.5 7.4 5.6 4.4 2.6
Idaho St. 4.3 16.8 14.5 13.1 11.8 10.7 9.6 8.3 6.8 5.2 3.2
Portland St. 4.4 17.6 14.2 12.5 11.8 10.0 9.2 8.3 7.1 5.6 3.8
Idaho 4.2 18.7 15.3 13.1 11.7 10.5 9.2 7.6 6.3 4.7 3.1
Weber St. 5.0 11.6 11.5 11.7 11.4 11.1 10.7 9.8 8.9 7.6 5.6
Montana 5.3 9.2 9.8 10.8 11.0 11.5 11.1 10.8 10.2 8.7 6.8
Eastern Washington 6.2 5.0 6.5 7.7 9.1 10.0 11.3 12.1 13.2 13.3 11.8
Northern Arizona 6.7 4.1 5.3 6.5 7.8 8.9 10.3 11.6 13.4 15.4 16.7
Sacramento St. 7.3 2.2 3.7 4.6 6.0 7.3 9.0 11.3 14.2 17.9 23.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Colorado 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.7 4.5 6.8 9.1 11.9 13.0 13.1 12.0 10.2 6.9 4.5 2.2 0.7 0.1
Montana St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 4.9 7.2 9.6 11.8 13.5 13.3 12.0 9.6 6.5 3.9 1.8 0.6 0.1
Idaho St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.5 5.7 8.4 11.0 12.6 13.2 12.6 10.7 8.6 5.6 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1
Portland St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.8 6.0 8.4 10.4 12.2 12.7 12.1 10.5 8.4 5.9 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.1
Idaho 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.1 5.2 7.9 10.0 12.4 13.2 12.7 11.4 8.9 6.1 3.6 1.7 0.8 0.1
Weber St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.5 7.8 10.4 12.2 13.4 12.4 11.0 8.9 6.2 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.0
Montana 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.8 6.2 9.1 11.2 13.0 13.3 12.0 10.5 7.6 5.0 3.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Eastern Washington 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.0 6.6 9.4 11.7 13.4 13.3 12.2 9.7 7.3 4.8 2.9 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 7 - 11 0.2 1.2 2.8 5.3 8.6 10.9 12.6 12.9 12.4 11.0 8.3 5.9 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 7 - 11 0.4 1.9 4.5 7.6 11.1 13.0 13.4 13.2 11.0 8.9 6.4 4.2 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Colorado 21.6% 14.1 5.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Montana St. 19.7% 12.6 5.2 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 16.8% 10.4 4.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Portland St. 17.6% 11.5 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Idaho 18.7% 11.9 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Weber St. 11.6% 6.9 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Montana 9.2% 5.4 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 5.0% 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 4.1% 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 2.2% 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Colorado 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.1 1.4 4.4 6.0 3.4 0.7 84.0 0.0%
Montana St. 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.1 4.6 3.6 85.2 0.0%
Idaho St. 13.6% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.8 3.9 1.6 86.4 0.0%
Portland St. 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.6 3.7 1.6 86.7 0.0%
Idaho 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.6 3.6 1.1 87.2 0.0%
Weber St. 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.5 2.3 90.4 0.0%
Montana 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.9 2.4 92.0 0.0%
Eastern Washington 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.7 94.8 0.0%
Northern Arizona 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.7 96.1 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 97.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northern Colorado 16.0% 0.2% 15.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 14.8% 2.2% 14.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 13.6% 0.8% 13.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 13.4% 0.8% 13.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 12.8% 0.4% 12.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 9.6% 1.2% 9.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 8.0% 1.5% 7.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 5.2% 3.2% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 3.9% 1.2% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.7% 1.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.9% 0.9 5.1 94.9
2nd Round 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0