Preseason Rankings
Montana St.
Big Sky
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#217
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.2#261
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#227
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#205
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.1% 21.3% 11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 13.7 14.4
.500 or above 43.2% 71.1% 39.6%
.500 or above in Conference 63.5% 80.1% 61.4%
Conference Champion 15.0% 26.1% 13.6%
Last Place in Conference 8.3% 3.1% 8.9%
First Four1.7% 1.0% 1.8%
First Round12.0% 21.6% 10.8%
Second Round0.5% 1.4% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 11.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 411 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 82   @ Colorado L 62-75 11%    
  Nov 09, 2025 321   Denver W 73-64 80%    
  Nov 12, 2025 95   @ Stanford L 61-73 14%    
  Nov 15, 2025 62   @ Boise St. L 60-76 8%    
  Nov 21, 2025 264   @ Long Beach St. L 65-66 47%    
  Nov 29, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 63-79 7%    
  Dec 03, 2025 148   St. Thomas L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 06, 2025 310   @ Oral Roberts W 71-69 57%    
  Dec 13, 2025 113   @ Oregon St. L 62-72 20%    
  Dec 16, 2025 256   @ Cal Poly L 78-79 45%    
  Jan 01, 2026 190   Northern Colorado W 73-71 55%    
  Jan 03, 2026 263   Northern Arizona W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 08, 2026 247   @ Eastern Washington L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 10, 2026 235   @ Idaho L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 17, 2026 189   Montana W 71-69 55%    
  Jan 19, 2026 190   @ Northern Colorado L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 22, 2026 282   Idaho St. W 70-63 71%    
  Jan 24, 2026 279   Weber St. W 70-64 69%    
  Jan 29, 2026 272   @ Sacramento St. L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 31, 2026 213   @ Portland St. L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 05, 2026 235   Idaho W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 07, 2026 247   Eastern Washington W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 14, 2026 189   @ Montana L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 19, 2026 279   @ Weber St. W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 21, 2026 282   @ Idaho St. W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 26, 2026 213   Portland St. W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 28, 2026 272   Sacramento St. W 69-63 68%    
  Mar 02, 2026 263   @ Northern Arizona L 69-70 47%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 3.8 3.6 2.3 1.0 0.3 15.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.5 4.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.1 3.5 1.1 0.1 12.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 5.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 5.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.9 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.1 2.2 0.3 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.2 5.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.4 4.9 6.7 8.5 9.6 10.9 11.0 10.3 9.7 8.0 5.9 4.1 2.3 1.0 0.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 97.2% 2.3    2.1 0.2
15-3 87.7% 3.6    2.8 0.7 0.0
14-4 64.6% 3.8    2.4 1.2 0.2
13-5 34.7% 2.8    1.1 1.2 0.4 0.1
12-6 11.7% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.0% 15.0 9.9 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 77.3% 77.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 52.7% 52.7% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.3% 47.5% 47.5% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2
15-3 4.1% 38.9% 38.7% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5 0.2%
14-4 5.9% 32.3% 32.3% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.0
13-5 8.0% 23.5% 23.5% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.2 6.1
12-6 9.7% 16.2% 16.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 8.1
11-7 10.3% 11.3% 11.3% 17.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 9.1
10-8 11.0% 8.6% 8.6% 17.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 10.1
9-9 10.9% 5.8% 5.8% 18.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 10.3
8-10 9.6% 3.4% 3.4% 16.7 0.0 0.3 9.3
7-11 8.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.4 0.0 0.1 8.3
6-12 6.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.7
5-13 4.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.9
4-14 3.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.3
3-15 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.3 3.1 3.2 2.9 87.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%