Montana
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#182
Expected Predictive Rating+4.0#107
Pace67.3#203
Improvement+2.4#87

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#115
First Shot+4.6#65
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#329
Layup/Dunks+4.2#44
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#248
Freethrows+2.3#58
Improvement+3.5#37

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#254
First Shot-3.0#268
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#189
Layups/Dunks-3.5#300
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#116
Freethrows-0.8#248
Improvement-1.1#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.5% 24.9% 19.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 71.7% 89.3% 60.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round21.5% 24.9% 19.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Away) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 35 - 35 - 10
Quad 414 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 39   @ Oregon L 48-79 8%     0 - 1 -16.3 -14.7 -4.0
  Nov 13, 2024 5   @ Tennessee L 57-92 2%     0 - 2 -12.5 -0.5 -12.8
  Nov 18, 2024 45   @ Utah St. L 83-95 9%     0 - 3 +1.9 +8.1 -5.5
  Nov 24, 2024 315   Denver W 83-73 84%     1 - 3 -1.7 -0.1 -2.3
  Nov 25, 2024 290   Utah Tech W 69-66 79%     2 - 3 -6.6 -6.4 +0.0
  Nov 27, 2024 114   Cal St. Northridge W 83-75 44%     3 - 3 +8.3 +3.6 +4.0
  Dec 04, 2024 111   South Dakota St. W 71-67 43%     4 - 3 +4.7 -5.4 +10.0
  Dec 07, 2024 126   @ St. Thomas L 81-88 30%     4 - 4 -2.7 +4.8 -7.3
  Dec 16, 2024 100   @ Northern Iowa L 76-104 21%     4 - 5 -20.9 +9.5 -31.4
  Dec 21, 2024 69   @ San Francisco L 67-71 14%     4 - 6 +6.7 +6.6 -0.3
  Jan 02, 2025 265   @ Eastern Washington W 92-81 57%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +8.1 +15.7 -7.8
  Jan 04, 2025 253   @ Idaho W 73-71 56%     6 - 6 2 - 0 -0.7 -3.6 +2.9
  Jan 09, 2025 264   Northern Arizona W 81-76 74%     7 - 6 3 - 0 -3.0 +0.6 -3.9
  Jan 11, 2025 151   Northern Colorado L 57-81 53%     7 - 7 3 - 1 -25.9 -19.2 -6.7
  Jan 16, 2025 297   @ Weber St. W 63-59 65%     8 - 7 4 - 1 -1.1 -3.0 +2.6
  Jan 18, 2025 229   @ Idaho St. L 61-86 50%     8 - 8 4 - 2 -26.1 -8.9 -18.9
  Jan 20, 2025 253   Idaho W 72-67 74%     9 - 8 5 - 2 -2.7 -2.7 +0.4
  Jan 25, 2025 188   Montana St. W 77-70 61%     10 - 8 6 - 2 +2.9 +10.9 -7.3
  Jan 30, 2025 201   Portland St. W 92-78 63%     11 - 8 7 - 2 +9.3 +24.4 -14.3
  Feb 01, 2025 332   Sacramento St. W 87-59 87%     12 - 8 8 - 2 +14.7 +20.3 -2.1
  Feb 06, 2025 151   @ Northern Colorado W 86-78 34%     13 - 8 9 - 2 +11.2 +14.5 -3.1
  Feb 08, 2025 264   @ Northern Arizona W 83-80 57%     14 - 8 10 - 2 +0.1 +18.2 -17.8
  Feb 13, 2025 229   Idaho St. W 81-68 69%     15 - 8 11 - 2 +6.8 +8.4 -0.9
  Feb 15, 2025 297   Weber St. W 65-58 80%     16 - 8 12 - 2 -3.1 -3.8 +1.7
  Feb 22, 2025 188   @ Montana St. L 72-74 40%    
  Feb 27, 2025 332   @ Sacramento St. W 74-67 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 201   @ Portland St. L 73-75 43%    
  Mar 03, 2025 265   Eastern Washington W 79-72 75%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.8 24.9 32.2 10.9 71.7 1st
2nd 3.0 13.2 12.1 28.3 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 3.1 16.9 37.0 32.2 10.9 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 10.9    10.9
15-3 100.0% 32.2    20.8 11.3
14-4 67.2% 24.9    8.6 16.3
13-5 22.2% 3.8    0.5 3.3
12-6 2.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 71.7% 71.7 40.8 31.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 10.9% 29.9% 29.9% 13.5 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.2 7.6
15-3 32.2% 24.4% 24.4% 14.2 0.0 0.9 4.2 2.7 0.1 24.3
14-4 37.0% 19.3% 19.3% 14.6 0.2 2.4 4.2 0.3 29.9
13-5 16.9% 16.5% 16.5% 14.9 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.2 14.1
12-6 3.1% 14.7% 14.7% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.5% 21.5% 0.0% 14.4 0.2 2.3 8.9 9.4 0.7 78.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.3% 100.0% 13.5 5.8 39.0 50.6 4.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.1%
Lose Out 1.2%