Montana
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#191
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#139
Pace69.6#161
Improvement+0.6#151

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#147
First Shot+3.2#87
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#302
Layup/Dunks+3.4#64
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#133
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#250
Freethrows+1.5#92
Improvement+2.1#52

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#250
First Shot-3.5#292
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#98
Layups/Dunks-3.5#310
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#142
Freethrows-0.4#216
Improvement-1.5#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.4% 18.1% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 62.1% 74.0% 49.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.5% 87.9% 68.4%
Conference Champion 19.7% 27.2% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 1.1% 4.0%
First Four1.0% 0.6% 1.4%
First Round14.9% 17.7% 11.9%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Away) - 52.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 34 - 44 - 10
Quad 412 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 21   @ Oregon L 48-79 5%     0 - 1 -13.4 -12.6 -3.2
  Nov 13, 2024 3   @ Tennessee L 57-92 2%     0 - 2 -11.7 -0.8 -11.7
  Nov 18, 2024 52   @ Utah St. L 83-95 9%     0 - 3 +1.0 +11.1 -9.3
  Nov 24, 2024 318   Denver W 83-73 83%     1 - 3 -1.9 -2.6 +0.1
  Nov 25, 2024 288   Utah Tech W 69-66 78%     2 - 3 -6.7 -5.8 -0.8
  Nov 27, 2024 150   Cal St. Northridge W 83-75 55%     3 - 3 +5.3 +3.0 +1.6
  Dec 04, 2024 119   South Dakota St. W 71-67 45%     4 - 3 +3.7 -4.8 +8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 126   @ St. Thomas L 81-88 26%     4 - 4 -1.7 +7.8 -9.5
  Dec 16, 2024 97   @ Northern Iowa L 76-104 18%     4 - 5 -19.9 +8.7 -29.7
  Dec 21, 2024 61   @ San Francisco L 67-71 11%     4 - 6 +7.6 +8.3 -1.1
  Jan 02, 2025 254   @ Eastern Washington W 78-77 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 258   @ Idaho W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 09, 2025 266   Northern Arizona W 79-72 75%    
  Jan 11, 2025 183   Northern Colorado W 80-77 60%    
  Jan 16, 2025 212   @ Weber St. L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 18, 2025 252   @ Idaho St. W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 20, 2025 258   Idaho W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 140   Montana St. W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 30, 2025 251   Portland St. W 79-73 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 75-63 86%    
  Feb 06, 2025 183   @ Northern Colorado L 77-80 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 266   @ Northern Arizona W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 13, 2025 252   Idaho St. W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 212   Weber St. W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 140   @ Montana St. L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 27, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. W 72-66 71%    
  Mar 01, 2025 251   @ Portland St. W 77-76 51%    
  Mar 03, 2025 254   Eastern Washington W 81-75 72%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.8 5.7 4.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 19.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.6 5.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.6 6.9 4.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 6.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 5.2 3.0 0.3 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.9 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.8 6.0 8.6 11.4 13.8 14.3 13.1 11.0 7.7 4.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 98.6% 2.1    2.0 0.1
15-3 90.7% 4.1    3.5 0.6 0.0
14-4 73.4% 5.7    3.7 1.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 43.4% 4.8    2.1 2.1 0.6 0.1
12-6 15.6% 2.0    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.7% 19.7 12.3 5.6 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 65.4% 65.4% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0
17-1 0.6% 47.9% 47.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 2.1% 35.6% 35.6% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3
15-3 4.5% 33.8% 33.8% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 3.0
14-4 7.7% 28.9% 28.9% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 5.5
13-5 11.0% 24.5% 24.5% 14.3 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.1 8.3
12-6 13.1% 18.9% 18.9% 14.7 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.2 10.6
11-7 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.3 12.2
10-8 13.8% 11.2% 11.2% 15.2 0.1 1.1 0.4 12.2
9-9 11.4% 8.3% 8.3% 15.6 0.3 0.6 10.4
8-10 8.6% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.2
7-11 6.0% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.2 5.8
6-12 3.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 3.7
5-13 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.7 5.7 2.4 84.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.8 23.5 76.5