Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#45
Expected Predictive Rating+14.9#29
Pace70.8#110
Improvement-2.1#281

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#16
First Shot+9.7#8
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#210
Layup/Dunks+9.5#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#297
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#206
Freethrows+3.1#30
Improvement+2.5#62

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#117
First Shot+2.5#90
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#241
Layups/Dunks+5.5#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#340
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#332
Freethrows+4.2#2
Improvement-4.6#353
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.3% 3.5% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.4% 82.1% 66.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.9% 76.4% 60.0%
Average Seed 9.5 9.2 9.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 23.5% 32.8% 7.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.4% 11.2% 17.1%
First Round69.0% 76.0% 57.3%
Second Round27.7% 31.4% 21.6%
Sweet Sixteen5.6% 6.6% 3.9%
Elite Eight1.8% 2.2% 1.1%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Home) - 62.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 3
Quad 26 - 310 - 6
Quad 35 - 016 - 6
Quad 410 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 307   Alcorn St. W 101-46 97%     1 - 0 +44.0 +23.9 +20.2
  Nov 09, 2024 235   Charlotte W 103-74 94%     2 - 0 +22.5 +26.7 -4.0
  Nov 18, 2024 182   Montana W 95-83 91%     3 - 0 +8.3 +11.8 -4.3
  Nov 22, 2024 61   Iowa W 77-69 58%     4 - 0 +17.2 -2.2 +18.7
  Nov 28, 2024 106   St. Bonaventure W 72-67 76%     5 - 0 +9.1 +4.5 +4.7
  Nov 29, 2024 71   North Texas W 61-57 63%     6 - 0 +11.9 +1.1 +11.2
  Dec 04, 2024 166   Wyoming W 70-67 90%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +0.2 +8.9 -8.2
  Dec 07, 2024 290   Utah Tech W 92-62 96%     8 - 0 +20.4 +9.5 +9.7
  Dec 14, 2024 176   South Florida W 88-67 91%     9 - 0 +17.5 +13.6 +3.7
  Dec 17, 2024 54   UC San Diego L 73-75 62%     9 - 1 +6.0 +2.0 +4.1
  Dec 22, 2024 30   @ St. Mary's W 75-68 28%     10 - 1 +24.2 +16.6 +8.0
  Dec 28, 2024 51   @ San Diego St. W 67-66 42%     11 - 1 2 - 0 +14.2 +4.8 +9.4
  Dec 31, 2024 80   @ Nevada W 69-64 56%     12 - 1 3 - 0 +14.7 +7.7 +7.6
  Jan 04, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 89-83 95%     13 - 1 4 - 0 -1.8 +5.7 -8.0
  Jan 07, 2025 163   @ San Jose St. W 85-78 80%     14 - 1 5 - 0 +9.4 +18.9 -9.0
  Jan 11, 2025 49   Boise St. W 81-79 61%     15 - 1 6 - 0 +10.4 +28.1 -17.3
  Jan 15, 2025 98   @ UNLV L 62-65 65%     15 - 2 6 - 1 +4.4 +3.9 +0.1
  Jan 22, 2025 80   Nevada W 90-69 74%     16 - 2 7 - 1 +25.7 +26.5 +0.9
  Jan 25, 2025 294   @ Air Force W 87-58 92%     17 - 2 8 - 1 +24.2 +16.9 +8.8
  Jan 29, 2025 98   UNLV W 76-71 80%     18 - 2 9 - 1 +7.4 +6.0 +1.4
  Feb 01, 2025 38   New Mexico L 63-82 56%     18 - 3 9 - 2 -9.1 -6.8 -1.3
  Feb 04, 2025 166   @ Wyoming W 71-67 80%     19 - 3 10 - 2 +6.3 +4.2 +2.3
  Feb 07, 2025 254   @ Fresno St. W 89-81 90%     20 - 3 11 - 2 +5.3 +17.8 -12.4
  Feb 11, 2025 67   Colorado St. W 93-85 70%     21 - 3 12 - 2 +13.8 +24.6 -10.6
  Feb 16, 2025 38   @ New Mexico L 79-82 36%     21 - 4 12 - 3 +11.9 +16.9 -5.1
  Feb 19, 2025 163   San Jose St. W 105-57 90%     22 - 4 13 - 3 +45.3 +34.1 +13.3
  Feb 22, 2025 51   San Diego St. W 73-70 63%    
  Feb 26, 2025 49   @ Boise St. L 76-78 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 67   @ Colorado St. W 77-76 50%    
  Mar 08, 2025 294   Air Force W 83-62 98%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1.2 12.1 10.2 23.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 28.5 24.6 3.4 57.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.9 7.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 5.4 0.2 5.6 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 1.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.3 12.6 36.8 36.7 13.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 74.9% 10.2    4.1 6.2
16-4 33.1% 12.1    1.4 9.6 1.2
15-5 3.2% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 23.5% 23.5 5.4 16.0 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 13.6% 95.1% 30.5% 64.6% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.1 3.3 3.6 1.6 0.2 0.7 92.9%
16-4 36.7% 85.9% 24.3% 61.6% 9.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.5 9.8 11.4 4.2 5.2 81.4%
15-5 36.8% 69.5% 19.1% 50.3% 10.0 0.1 1.2 4.9 11.0 8.3 0.1 11.3 62.2%
14-6 12.6% 50.0% 11.9% 38.1% 10.4 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.3 0.1 6.3 43.2%
13-7 0.3% 27.6% 10.3% 17.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 19.2%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 76.4% 21.7% 54.8% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.6 9.2 19.0 26.2 16.0 0.3 23.6 69.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.2% 100.0% 6.6 0.5 1.7 13.7 30.6 30.6 16.9 5.8 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.1% 95.8% 8.4 0.3 3.9 15.4 31.7 32.4 10.5 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.6% 92.3% 8.8 6.4 27.9 38.5 17.8 1.8