UC San Diego
Big West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#158
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#222
Pace64.2#322
Improvement-2.0#346

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#134
First Shot+5.4#44
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#351
Layup/Dunks+4.7#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#14
Freethrows-1.1#239
Improvement-0.7#293

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#213
First Shot-2.7#266
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#98
Layups/Dunks+5.7#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#283
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#306
Freethrows-3.0#327
Improvement-1.3#328
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 8.6% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 60.3% 73.8% 51.5%
.500 or above in Conference 68.0% 74.9% 63.4%
Conference Champion 6.7% 8.7% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 2.2% 4.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round6.9% 8.6% 5.8%
Second Round0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Neutral) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 11
Quad 410 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 62   @ San Diego St. L 58-63 14%     0 - 1 +6.6 -2.5 +8.8
  Nov 09, 2024 238   Pepperdine W 94-76 74%     1 - 1 +11.2 +14.1 -3.4
  Nov 12, 2024 307   Sacramento St. W 64-54 85%     2 - 1 -1.0 -4.1 +4.3
  Nov 16, 2024 136   Seattle L 71-84 56%     2 - 2 -14.4 +2.6 -18.0
  Nov 21, 2024 120   La Salle L 68-71 39%    
  Dec 05, 2024 119   @ UC Santa Barbara L 68-74 29%    
  Dec 07, 2024 239   Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-65 73%    
  Dec 15, 2024 287   @ Idaho W 73-69 63%    
  Dec 17, 2024 45   @ Utah St. L 69-82 12%    
  Dec 21, 2024 298   @ San Diego W 74-70 65%    
  Jan 04, 2025 270   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 09, 2025 294   Cal Poly W 78-68 82%    
  Jan 11, 2025 57   UC Irvine L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 16, 2025 259   @ Long Beach St. W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 198   @ UC Riverside L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 23, 2025 119   UC Santa Barbara L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 194   Cal St. Northridge W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 31, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 06, 2025 198   UC Riverside W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 57   @ UC Irvine L 63-75 15%    
  Feb 13, 2025 239   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 169   UC Davis W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 20, 2025 294   @ Cal Poly W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 174   Hawaii W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 27, 2025 194   @ Cal St. Northridge L 74-75 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 270   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-63 78%    
  Mar 06, 2025 259   Long Beach St. W 74-66 76%    
  Mar 08, 2025 169   @ UC Davis L 71-73 42%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 6.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.3 3.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.1 5.3 3.3 1.1 0.1 15.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 5.0 5.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 14.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.7 4.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.1 3.8 1.2 0.1 10.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.3 0.9 0.1 8.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.7 0.7 0.1 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.8 5.9 8.0 9.8 11.2 12.3 11.5 10.5 8.7 6.2 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 93.1% 0.9    0.8 0.1
17-3 71.5% 1.6    1.1 0.5 0.0
16-4 45.9% 1.8    0.9 0.8 0.1
15-5 20.8% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 3.8 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 57.1% 50.0% 7.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3%
19-1 0.3% 45.9% 45.1% 0.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.4%
18-2 1.0% 40.3% 40.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
17-3 2.2% 29.1% 29.1% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.6
16-4 4.0% 28.2% 28.2% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8
15-5 6.2% 20.0% 20.0% 13.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.9
14-6 8.7% 12.7% 12.7% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.6
13-7 10.5% 8.6% 8.6% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.6
12-8 11.5% 5.2% 5.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.9
11-9 12.3% 3.3% 3.3% 14.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.9
10-10 11.2% 1.8% 1.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.0
9-11 9.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.1 0.1 9.7
8-12 8.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 8.0
7-13 5.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.9
6-14 3.8% 3.8
5-15 2.4% 2.4
4-16 1.2% 1.2
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 93.0 0.0%