UC San Diego
Big West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#79
Expected Predictive Rating+6.7#85
Pace65.2#261
Improvement+1.4#120

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#79
First Shot+6.2#39
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#309
Layup/Dunks+1.2#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#14
Freethrows+2.3#56
Improvement+1.2#105

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#88
First Shot+0.1#175
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#5
Layups/Dunks+5.7#28
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#164
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#356
Freethrows+0.7#130
Improvement+0.2#172
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.8% 33.6% 28.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.5 11.5 11.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 99.9% 99.9%
Conference Champion 16.7% 17.0% 14.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round32.6% 33.4% 27.9%
Second Round7.6% 7.9% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.0% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 86.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 21 - 23 - 4
Quad 38 - 310 - 7
Quad 414 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 47   @ San Diego St. L 58-63 27%     0 - 1 +8.6 -0.5 +8.9
  Nov 09, 2024 203   Pepperdine W 94-76 87%     1 - 1 +13.1 +16.4 -3.8
  Nov 12, 2024 337   Sacramento St. W 64-54 97%     2 - 1 -4.2 -4.7 +1.7
  Nov 16, 2024 150   Seattle L 71-84 80%     2 - 2 -14.8 +3.6 -19.4
  Nov 21, 2024 191   La Salle W 72-67 79%     3 - 2 +3.7 -2.8 +6.3
  Nov 22, 2024 149   James Madison W 73-67 72%     4 - 2 +7.0 +10.7 -2.9
  Nov 23, 2024 194   Toledo W 80-45 80%     5 - 2 +33.4 +5.6 +29.1
  Dec 05, 2024 165   @ UC Santa Barbara W 84-76 67%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +10.8 +14.8 -3.8
  Dec 07, 2024 234   Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-60 90%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +14.2 +4.7 +9.7
  Dec 15, 2024 246   @ Idaho W 80-56 81%     8 - 2 +22.0 +6.7 +16.4
  Dec 17, 2024 54   @ Utah St. W 75-73 29%     9 - 2 +15.0 +4.7 +10.2
  Dec 21, 2024 290   @ San Diego W 77-65 87%    
  Jan 04, 2025 309   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 90-51 88%     10 - 2 3 - 0 +33.3 +18.4 +16.2
  Jan 09, 2025 286   Cal Poly W 95-68 94%     11 - 2 4 - 0 +17.1 +17.6 -0.1
  Jan 11, 2025 60   UC Irvine L 52-60 53%     11 - 3 4 - 1 -1.5 -6.6 +4.1
  Jan 16, 2025 293   @ Long Beach St. W 80-54 87%     12 - 3 5 - 1 +21.1 +14.8 +10.0
  Jan 18, 2025 175   @ UC Riverside L 81-85 69%     12 - 4 5 - 2 -1.8 +7.8 -9.6
  Jan 23, 2025 165   UC Santa Barbara W 73-63 83%    
  Jan 25, 2025 133   Cal St. Northridge W 79-71 79%    
  Jan 31, 2025 181   @ Hawaii W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 06, 2025 175   UC Riverside W 75-65 84%    
  Feb 08, 2025 60   @ UC Irvine L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 13, 2025 234   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 15, 2025 228   UC Davis W 74-60 90%    
  Feb 20, 2025 286   @ Cal Poly W 84-72 85%    
  Feb 22, 2025 181   Hawaii W 74-63 85%    
  Feb 27, 2025 133   @ Cal St. Northridge W 77-74 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 309   Cal St. Fullerton W 77-59 96%    
  Mar 06, 2025 293   Long Beach St. W 78-60 95%    
  Mar 08, 2025 228   @ UC Davis W 71-63 77%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.8 6.6 3.6 16.7 1st
2nd 0.5 4.3 13.4 21.3 19.5 8.8 0.6 68.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 4.5 3.2 0.7 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.1 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.3 9.5 17.0 23.4 24.3 15.4 4.3 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 85.0% 3.6    2.5 1.2
17-3 43.0% 6.6    3.4 3.2 0.0
16-4 19.9% 4.8    1.8 2.9 0.1
15-5 5.6% 1.3    0.3 0.9 0.1
14-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.7% 16.7 8.0 8.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 4.3% 52.3% 47.7% 4.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.0 8.9%
17-3 15.4% 43.9% 43.0% 0.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.1 2.3 0.0 8.6 1.5%
16-4 24.3% 39.7% 39.7% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 4.0 5.5 0.1 14.7 0.1%
15-5 23.4% 31.3% 31.3% 11.9 1.5 5.3 0.5 0.0 16.1
14-6 17.0% 26.3% 26.3% 12.0 0.6 3.5 0.4 12.5
13-7 9.5% 18.0% 18.0% 12.1 0.1 1.3 0.3 7.8
12-8 4.3% 12.9% 12.9% 12.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.7
11-9 1.4% 6.5% 6.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 1.3
10-10 0.4% 5.1% 5.1% 13.0 0.0 0.4
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 32.8% 32.5% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.8 11.0 18.3 1.6 0.0 67.2 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 8.8 0.5 2.2 9.9 13.7 11.5 22.0 18.1 22.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4% 11.6% 10.7 1.4 1.4 8.0 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 6.3% 11.0 6.3