UC San Diego
Big West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#54
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#59
Pace65.2#258
Improvement+5.1#18

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#56
First Shot+7.6#22
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#306
Layup/Dunks+1.7#118
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.0#7
Freethrows+2.6#45
Improvement+3.6#33

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#51
First Shot+2.0#108
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#5
Layups/Dunks+6.0#25
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#347
Freethrows+1.0#109
Improvement+1.5#107
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.9% 59.4% 51.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.7% 3.8% 2.0%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 11.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 96.9% 97.1% 94.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 1.5% 1.0%
First Round58.1% 58.6% 50.8%
Second Round18.5% 18.7% 14.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.4% 4.5% 3.2%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.2% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 94.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 23 - 14 - 2
Quad 39 - 213 - 5
Quad 414 - 127 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 51   @ San Diego St. L 58-63 40%     0 - 1 +8.2 -0.6 +8.6
  Nov 09, 2024 226   Pepperdine W 94-76 93%     1 - 1 +11.9 +15.1 -3.7
  Nov 12, 2024 332   Sacramento St. W 64-54 98%     2 - 1 -3.3 -6.0 +3.9
  Nov 16, 2024 165   Seattle L 71-84 89%     2 - 2 -15.8 +3.6 -20.4
  Nov 21, 2024 236   La Salle W 72-67 91%     3 - 2 +1.0 -4.0 +4.9
  Nov 22, 2024 138   James Madison W 73-67 81%     4 - 2 +7.2 +9.3 -1.3
  Nov 23, 2024 221   Toledo W 80-45 90%     5 - 2 +31.8 +4.5 +28.6
  Dec 05, 2024 145   @ UC Santa Barbara W 84-76 75%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +11.5 +14.4 -2.7
  Dec 07, 2024 240   Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-60 94%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +14.1 +3.7 +10.5
  Dec 15, 2024 253   @ Idaho W 80-56 89%     8 - 2 +21.3 +5.5 +16.9
  Dec 17, 2024 45   @ Utah St. W 75-73 38%     9 - 2 +15.9 +3.2 +12.6
  Dec 21, 2024 314   @ San Diego W 82-65 94%    
  Jan 04, 2025 342   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 90-51 96%     10 - 2 3 - 0 +29.5 +17.2 +13.6
  Jan 09, 2025 242   Cal Poly W 95-68 94%     11 - 2 4 - 0 +20.0 +19.4 +1.1
  Jan 11, 2025 85   UC Irvine L 52-60 73%     11 - 3 4 - 1 -3.8 -7.7 +2.8
  Jan 16, 2025 304   @ Long Beach St. W 80-54 93%     12 - 3 5 - 1 +20.2 +14.4 +9.5
  Jan 18, 2025 149   @ UC Riverside L 81-85 76%     12 - 4 5 - 2 -0.8 +7.2 -7.9
  Jan 23, 2025 145   UC Santa Barbara W 77-63 87%     13 - 4 6 - 2 +12.4 +4.4 +8.4
  Jan 25, 2025 114   Cal St. Northridge W 79-54 83%     14 - 4 7 - 2 +25.3 +3.7 +20.6
  Jan 30, 2025 207   @ Hawaii W 74-63 84%     15 - 4 8 - 2 +11.0 +9.2 +2.8
  Feb 06, 2025 149   UC Riverside W 91-71 87%     16 - 4 9 - 2 +18.1 +16.1 +2.0
  Feb 08, 2025 85   @ UC Irvine W 85-67 55%     17 - 4 10 - 2 +27.3 +22.3 +5.2
  Feb 13, 2025 240   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-54 87%     18 - 4 11 - 2 +17.2 +13.4 +7.9
  Feb 15, 2025 222   UC Davis W 85-60 93%     19 - 4 12 - 2 +19.2 +19.8 +1.1
  Feb 20, 2025 242   @ Cal Poly W 81-67 87%     20 - 4 13 - 2 +12.1 +6.4 +5.8
  Feb 22, 2025 207   Hawaii W 76-60 94%    
  Feb 27, 2025 114   @ Cal St. Northridge W 78-73 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 342   Cal St. Fullerton W 82-57 99%    
  Mar 06, 2025 304   Long Beach St. W 80-59 98%    
  Mar 08, 2025 222   @ UC Davis W 72-61 85%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 5.4 38.8 52.6 96.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.7 7.9 38.8 52.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 52.6    52.6
17-3 100.0% 38.8    26.4 12.4
16-4 67.7% 5.4    1.8 3.0 0.6
15-5 26.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 96.9% 96.9 80.7 15.6 0.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 52.6% 62.5% 60.0% 2.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.6 22.4 3.8 19.7 6.3%
17-3 38.8% 55.8% 55.2% 0.6% 11.4 0.5 12.7 8.5 0.0 17.1 1.3%
16-4 7.9% 50.5% 50.1% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 1.8 2.2 0.0 3.9 0.8%
15-5 0.7% 47.8% 47.8% 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.4
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 58.9% 57.3% 1.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 6.1 36.9 14.7 0.1 41.1 3.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 30.1% 100.0% 10.8 0.1 0.0 0.4 3.2 17.9 67.4 10.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.8% 7.8% 11.0 0.8 6.2 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.0% 4.5% 11.0 0.1 0.4 3.5 0.5