Long Beach St.
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#262
Expected Predictive Rating-15.3#346
Pace62.8#334
Improvement-1.3#306

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#231
First Shot-3.6#277
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#95
Layup/Dunks-6.9#348
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#42
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#166
Freethrows-0.4#209
Improvement-1.0#316

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#286
First Shot-2.7#268
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#228
Layups/Dunks-2.5#261
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#105
Freethrows-0.1#194
Improvement-0.3#222
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 8.7% 12.1% 3.9%
.500 or above in Conference 21.3% 25.2% 15.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 25.4% 22.3% 30.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 58.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 93 - 14
Quad 47 - 610 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 152   @ South Dakota St. L 79-80 20%     0 - 1 +2.4 +7.7 -5.3
  Nov 13, 2024 57   @ San Francisco L 54-84 6%     0 - 2 -18.0 -8.5 -11.3
  Nov 16, 2024 290   Portland L 61-63 65%     0 - 3 -11.4 -7.0 -4.6
  Nov 20, 2024 1   @ Gonzaga L 41-84 1%     0 - 4 -17.9 -18.4 -4.0
  Nov 23, 2024 254   Fresno St. W 73-71 59%    
  Nov 25, 2024 162   UNC Greensboro L 64-69 31%    
  Nov 26, 2024 172   UTEP L 67-72 33%    
  Nov 27, 2024 250   San Jose St. L 66-67 48%    
  Dec 05, 2024 275   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 65-68 40%    
  Dec 07, 2024 174   Hawaii L 66-67 44%    
  Dec 10, 2024 299   @ San Diego L 70-71 46%    
  Dec 19, 2024 245   @ Pepperdine L 68-72 34%    
  Jan 02, 2025 199   UC Riverside L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 04, 2025 237   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 64-68 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 147   @ UC Davis L 66-75 21%    
  Jan 16, 2025 149   UC San Diego L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 275   Cal St. Fullerton W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 23, 2025 194   @ Cal St. Northridge L 69-76 28%    
  Jan 25, 2025 269   @ Cal Poly L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 30, 2025 56   UC Irvine L 62-73 16%    
  Feb 01, 2025 128   @ UC Santa Barbara L 66-76 18%    
  Feb 06, 2025 147   UC Davis L 69-72 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 194   Cal St. Northridge L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 14, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 63-70 25%    
  Feb 20, 2025 199   @ UC Riverside L 66-72 28%    
  Feb 22, 2025 128   UC Santa Barbara L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 27, 2025 237   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-65 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 56   @ UC Irvine L 59-76 6%    
  Mar 06, 2025 149   @ UC San Diego L 64-73 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 269   Cal Poly W 75-72 60%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.1 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 4.9 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.3 2.3 5.5 3.9 1.0 0.1 13.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.5 4.4 0.9 0.0 14.5 9th
10th 0.3 1.3 4.1 5.9 3.5 0.9 0.0 16.0 10th
11th 0.5 1.4 3.2 5.1 4.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 17.4 11th
Total 0.5 1.4 3.5 6.5 8.9 11.5 12.2 13.0 11.5 9.8 7.9 5.5 3.4 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 76.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 34.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-5 30.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.1
16-4 0.2% 26.6% 26.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.7% 18.0% 18.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-6 1.2% 13.4% 13.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-7 2.2% 8.8% 8.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0
12-8 3.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 3.4
11-9 5.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.3 0.1 0.0 5.4
10-10 7.9% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 7.8
9-11 9.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 9.8
8-12 11.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.5
7-13 13.0% 13.0
6-14 12.2% 12.2
5-15 11.5% 11.5
4-16 8.9% 8.9
3-17 6.5% 6.5
2-18 3.5% 3.5
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%