UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#145
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#168
Pace63.7#298
Improvement-1.9#273

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#117
First Shot+2.8#99
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#255
Layup/Dunks-2.1#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#119
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#33
Freethrows-1.4#276
Improvement-0.7#220

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#194
First Shot+2.1#104
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#347
Layups/Dunks+1.6#106
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#112
Freethrows+1.5#81
Improvement-1.2#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.2% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 100.0% 89.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.1% 2.2% 1.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Away) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 56 - 10
Quad 413 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 284   @ Portland W 94-53 70%     1 - 0 +36.6 +13.9 +21.5
  Nov 13, 2024 254   Fresno St. W 91-86 80%     2 - 0 -2.8 +3.0 -6.5
  Nov 17, 2024 163   @ San Jose St. W 64-59 44%     3 - 0 +7.4 +5.0 +3.4
  Nov 20, 2024 139   UTEP L 76-79 59%     3 - 1 -4.4 +6.4 -10.8
  Nov 26, 2024 265   Eastern Washington W 67-51 80%     4 - 1 +8.0 -2.7 +12.4
  Nov 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 81-48 99%     5 - 1 +2.1 +10.7 -1.9
  Dec 05, 2024 54   UC San Diego L 76-84 25%     5 - 2 0 - 1 +0.0 +9.7 -9.9
  Dec 07, 2024 222   @ UC Davis L 60-71 56%     5 - 3 0 - 2 -11.7 -4.7 -7.6
  Dec 14, 2024 337   Green Bay W 83-66 91%     6 - 3 +3.0 -1.4 +3.6
  Dec 18, 2024 169   @ Loyola Marymount L 58-60 45%     6 - 4 +0.2 -8.2 +8.3
  Dec 22, 2024 219   @ Missouri St. L 56-68 56%     6 - 5 -12.6 -2.6 -12.8
  Jan 02, 2025 207   @ Hawaii W 64-61 54%     7 - 5 1 - 2 +3.0 +3.1 +0.4
  Jan 09, 2025 240   Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-66 77%     8 - 5 2 - 2 +5.1 +4.5 +1.3
  Jan 11, 2025 242   @ Cal Poly W 75-72 61%     9 - 5 3 - 2 +1.1 +6.2 -4.8
  Jan 16, 2025 149   UC Riverside W 66-63 61%     10 - 5 4 - 2 +1.1 -2.2 +3.6
  Jan 18, 2025 222   UC Davis L 60-64 74%     10 - 6 4 - 3 -9.8 +0.0 -10.5
  Jan 23, 2025 54   @ UC San Diego L 63-77 13%     10 - 7 4 - 4 -0.9 -1.4 +0.1
  Jan 25, 2025 342   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 83-75 84%     11 - 7 5 - 4 -1.5 +9.5 -10.7
  Jan 30, 2025 114   Cal St. Northridge L 71-78 53%     11 - 8 5 - 5 -6.7 +1.8 -8.8
  Feb 01, 2025 304   Long Beach St. W 85-54 86%     12 - 8 6 - 5 +20.1 +9.3 +12.2
  Feb 06, 2025 240   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-75 61%     13 - 8 7 - 5 +4.2 +16.5 -11.6
  Feb 08, 2025 207   Hawaii W 76-72 72%     14 - 8 8 - 5 -1.1 +0.4 -1.6
  Feb 13, 2025 85   @ UC Irvine L 60-62 21%     14 - 9 8 - 6 +7.3 -0.5 +7.7
  Feb 15, 2025 149   @ UC Riverside L 69-81 41%     14 - 10 8 - 7 -8.8 +3.4 -13.4
  Feb 20, 2025 342   Cal St. Fullerton W 86-56 92%     15 - 10 9 - 7 +15.4 +15.2 +2.8
  Feb 22, 2025 304   @ Long Beach St. W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 27, 2025 242   Cal Poly W 83-75 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 114   @ Cal St. Northridge L 74-78 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 85   UC Irvine L 67-70 40%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.1 2.4 3rd
4th 1.0 8.9 5.0 14.9 4th
5th 0.8 12.2 36.0 21.0 1.2 71.2 5th
6th 2.1 6.3 2.8 0.1 11.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 3.0 18.6 39.8 30.3 8.3 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 8.3% 5.1% 5.1% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.8
12-8 30.3% 2.3% 2.3% 12.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 29.6
11-9 39.8% 1.7% 1.7% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 39.2
10-10 18.6% 1.1% 1.1% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 18.4
9-11 3.0% 1.3% 1.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 3.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.3 9.5 52.4 35.7 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.3%
Lose Out 1.3%