Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#270
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#223
Pace66.0#278
Improvement+1.0#75

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#287
First Shot-4.7#299
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#132
Layup/Dunks-4.8#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#104
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#297
Freethrows+2.9#55
Improvement+0.3#129

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#229
First Shot-1.9#243
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#167
Layups/Dunks+5.0#50
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#171
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#348
Freethrows-0.3#197
Improvement+0.7#90
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.2% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.9 14.6
.500 or above 8.5% 26.3% 8.1%
.500 or above in Conference 20.6% 35.3% 20.3%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.2% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 23.7% 11.5% 24.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.7% 1.2% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 2.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 33 - 83 - 15
Quad 47 - 510 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 89   @ Grand Canyon L 79-89 10%     0 - 1 -1.2 +5.1 -5.8
  Nov 08, 2024 67   @ Stanford L 53-80 7%     0 - 2 -15.7 -10.1 -8.4
  Nov 13, 2024 70   @ Colorado L 53-83 7%     0 - 3 -19.0 -11.2 -9.2
  Nov 15, 2024 98   @ Oregon St. L 51-70 10%     0 - 4 -10.7 -9.8 -3.5
  Nov 18, 2024 236   Idaho St. W 62-61 54%     1 - 4 -5.7 -3.6 -1.9
  Nov 22, 2024 28   @ UCLA L 53-75 2%    
  Nov 26, 2024 238   @ Pepperdine L 68-73 33%    
  Nov 30, 2024 291   @ Pacific L 68-70 43%    
  Dec 05, 2024 259   Long Beach St. W 70-68 59%    
  Dec 07, 2024 198   @ UC Riverside L 66-73 27%    
  Dec 15, 2024 295   Denver W 74-70 65%    
  Dec 22, 2024 185   Wyoming L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 02, 2025 194   Cal St. Northridge L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 158   UC San Diego L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 09, 2025 169   @ UC Davis L 66-74 23%    
  Jan 11, 2025 174   Hawaii L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 16, 2025 57   @ UC Irvine L 59-77 6%    
  Jan 18, 2025 259   @ Long Beach St. L 67-71 38%    
  Jan 23, 2025 239   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-66 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 119   UC Santa Barbara L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 02, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 63-71 25%    
  Feb 06, 2025 194   @ Cal St. Northridge L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 169   UC Davis L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 294   Cal Poly W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 239   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 20, 2025 119   @ UC Santa Barbara L 64-76 15%    
  Feb 27, 2025 57   UC Irvine L 62-74 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 158   @ UC San Diego L 63-72 22%    
  Mar 06, 2025 294   @ Cal Poly L 71-73 45%    
  Mar 08, 2025 198   UC Riverside L 69-70 47%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.1 2.7 0.5 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.9 3.4 0.7 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.6 4.1 0.7 0.1 13.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.3 6.1 4.3 1.0 0.1 15.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.2 5.8 3.6 0.9 0.1 16.4 10th
11th 0.3 1.4 3.1 4.5 4.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 15.8 11th
Total 0.3 1.4 3.4 6.1 8.9 11.4 13.0 13.1 11.8 9.9 7.7 5.3 3.7 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 77.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 78.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 53.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 24.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 18.2% 18.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.2% 22.8% 22.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.5% 15.7% 15.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 1.1% 8.1% 8.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
13-7 2.0% 4.6% 4.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
12-8 3.7% 2.7% 2.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.6
11-9 5.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.2
10-10 7.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6
9-11 9.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 9.8
8-12 11.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.8
7-13 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.1
6-14 13.0% 13.0
5-15 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.4
4-16 8.9% 8.9
3-17 6.1% 6.1
2-18 3.4% 3.4
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%