Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#275
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#268
Pace64.2#307
Improvement+0.2#164

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#306
First Shot-4.2#302
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#223
Layup/Dunks+0.1#177
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#150
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.1#357
Freethrows+3.6#23
Improvement-0.9#254

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#213
First Shot-2.3#255
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#102
Layups/Dunks+0.6#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#118
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#286
Freethrows-1.1#262
Improvement+1.1#98
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 15.3
.500 or above 1.4% 2.8% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 5.5% 7.6% 4.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.1% 40.2% 48.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Home) - 39.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 50 - 9
Quad 33 - 73 - 16
Quad 46 - 59 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 102   @ Grand Canyon L 79-89 10%     0 - 1 -1.9 +6.6 -8.0
  Nov 08, 2024 94   @ Stanford L 53-80 8%     0 - 2 -18.0 -11.4 -9.3
  Nov 13, 2024 75   @ Colorado L 53-83 7%     0 - 3 -19.5 -11.4 -9.5
  Nov 15, 2024 65   @ Oregon St. L 51-70 6%     0 - 4 -7.3 -8.0 -1.8
  Nov 18, 2024 251   Idaho St. W 62-61 57%     1 - 4 -7.0 -4.8 -2.1
  Nov 22, 2024 14   @ UCLA L 47-80 2%     1 - 5 -14.7 -10.6 -6.1
  Nov 26, 2024 237   @ Pepperdine W 72-63 31%     2 - 5 +7.9 +5.6 +3.1
  Nov 30, 2024 277   @ Pacific L 55-64 39%     2 - 6 -12.3 -12.7 -0.4
  Dec 05, 2024 261   Long Beach St. L 56-73 59%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -25.5 -18.6 -7.8
  Dec 07, 2024 171   @ UC Riverside L 68-75 21%     2 - 8 0 - 2 -4.7 -3.2 -1.6
  Dec 15, 2024 318   Denver W 74-59 71%     3 - 8 +3.2 +8.0 -2.1
  Dec 22, 2024 161   Wyoming L 65-68 39%    
  Jan 02, 2025 158   Cal St. Northridge L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 04, 2025 91   UC San Diego L 62-71 19%    
  Jan 09, 2025 185   @ UC Davis L 63-71 23%    
  Jan 11, 2025 174   Hawaii L 65-67 41%    
  Jan 16, 2025 60   @ UC Irvine L 58-76 5%    
  Jan 18, 2025 261   @ Long Beach St. L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 23, 2025 229   Cal St. Bakersfield W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 138   UC Santa Barbara L 66-70 34%    
  Feb 02, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 62-70 23%    
  Feb 06, 2025 158   @ Cal St. Northridge L 67-76 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 185   UC Davis L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 265   Cal Poly W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 229   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 63-69 31%    
  Feb 20, 2025 138   @ UC Santa Barbara L 63-73 17%    
  Feb 27, 2025 60   UC Irvine L 61-73 13%    
  Mar 01, 2025 91   @ UC San Diego L 59-74 8%    
  Mar 06, 2025 265   @ Cal Poly L 74-78 37%    
  Mar 08, 2025 171   UC Riverside L 66-69 42%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.8 0.1 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.5 6.9 4.2 0.6 0.0 15.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 6.3 8.6 5.0 0.9 0.0 23.3 10th
11th 0.7 3.0 6.9 9.4 8.0 3.8 0.7 0.0 32.7 11th
Total 0.7 3.1 7.2 11.5 14.9 16.2 15.1 12.1 8.5 5.2 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 14.7% 0.0    0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 5.9% 5.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.2% 3.2% 3.2% 14.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.6% 2.2% 2.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-9 1.6% 2.1% 2.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
10-10 2.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 2.9
9-11 5.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.2
8-12 8.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.4
7-13 12.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.0
6-14 15.1% 15.1
5-15 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.2
4-16 14.9% 14.9
3-17 11.5% 11.5
2-18 7.2% 7.2
1-19 3.1% 3.1
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%