Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.9 #229
Expected Predictive Rating -3.3 #220
Pace 81.5 #6
Improvement +2.6 #63

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #256 C D- B- C+ C
Defense #198 D C B C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #166 1.17 #161 +0.4 #163
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #165 0.72 #221 -0.2 #184
Three Pointers 40% #191 1.02 #173 -0.2 #186
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #174 +0.0 #175
Freethrows 19.5 #92 69% #274 13.6 #134
Second Chance 25.9% #304 0.96 #281 0.25 #316
Turnovers 15.2% #101
Total Offense -3.0 #256

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #279 1.26 #304 +0.2 #167
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #310 0.72 #122 +2.0 #43
Three Pointers 49% #18 1.07 #262 -5.4 #347
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #280 -3.2 #281
Freethrows 18.1 #213 73% #235 13.3 #217
Second Chance 29.6% #138 1.07 #229 0.32 #177
Turnovers 18.5% #68
Total Defense -0.9 #198

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #198 0.7% #228
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.0% #175 5.6% #280
Possession Length 14.6 #9 17.1 #153
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #14 0.18 #215
Improvement -1.4 #263 +3.9 #18

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 5.4% 9.0% 2.0%
.500 or above in Conference 36.0% 50.5% 21.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 1.3% 7.4%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round1.1% 1.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 49.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 85 - 14
Quad 48 - 512 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 108 @Wyoming L 82 - 92 15% -3  0 - 1 -3 -2 D F F +1 C A F
 Mon, Nov 10 75 @California L 65 - 93 9% -16  0 - 2 -17 -8 C- F D+ -6 B+ C F
 Sat, Nov 15 132 Pacific L 73 - 85 40% -14  0 - 3 -13 -9 F F A+ -3 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 210 @Portland L 85 - 103 36% -13  0 - 4 -18 +4 A+ F C -20 F F D-
 Sat, Nov 22 131 St. Thomas W 88 - 80 29% -1  1 - 4 +10 +8 C F A+ +1 A+ D- F
 Sun, Nov 23 185 Northern Colorado L 93 - 97 42% -4  1 - 5 -6 +5 C F A+ -11 C+ D- F
 Sat, Nov 29 279 Pepperdine W 83 - 69 71% +5  2 - 5 +4 +8 C+ B+ A+ -4 B+ B C-
 Thu, Dec 4 281 Cal Poly L 91 - 94 71% -5  2 - 6 0 - 1 -13 -3 C+ C F -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 106 @Hawaii L 59 - 69 15% -9  2 - 7 0 - 2 -3 -8 F F A+ +6 B B+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 280 @Denver W 105 - 86 49% +19  3 - 7 +15 +15 A+ C D+ -1 A F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 61 @Oklahoma St. L 89 - 94 8% -10  3 - 8 +7 +10 A+ A C -2 F A A+
 Sun, Dec 28 29 @SMU L 63 - 110 4% -25  3 - 9 -30 -9 F D+ F -17 F D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 144 UC Santa Barbara W 95 - 84 43% +13  4 - 9 1 - 2 +9 +10 B+ C A -2 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 123 UC Irvine L 64 - 86 37% -9  4 - 10 1 - 3 -23 -5 D- D+ B+ -18 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 109 @UC San Diego W 88 - 71 16% +4  5 - 10 2 - 3 +24 +19 A+ C- A+ +5 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 207 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 79 58% -1  6 - 10 3 - 3 +1 +1 B+ D- C+ -1 D B+ C+
 Thu, Jan 15 181 @UC Davis L 69 - 74 30% -9  6 - 11 3 - 4 -3 -7 F C- D +4 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 293 @UC Riverside L 72 - 81 53% -9  6 - 12 3 - 5 -14 -10 F F F -3 F A- A
 Thu, Jan 22 250 Long Beach St. W 71 - 61 65% +11  7 - 12 4 - 5 +2 -4 B+ F D- +6 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 281 @Cal Poly L 87 - 88 50%
 Sat, Jan 31 144 @UC Santa Barbara L 75 - 83 23%
 Thu, Feb 5 293 UC Riverside W 82 - 75 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 299 Cal St. Bakersfield W 84 - 77 75%
 Thu, Feb 12 250 @Long Beach St. L 78 - 80 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 123 @UC Irvine L 72 - 81 19%
 Thu, Feb 19 181 UC Davis W 81 - 80 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 299 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 80 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 106 Hawaii L 73 - 78 31%
 Thu, Mar 5 109 UC San Diego L 76 - 81 33%
 Sat, Mar 7 207 @Cal St. Northridge L 84 - 88 35%
Totals 12 - 18 9 - 11 -4 -3 C D- B- -1 D C B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.7 0.1 3.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.2 2.4 0.2 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 7.0 4.8 0.6 14.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 9.1 7.5 1.4 0.0 19.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 8.5 8.8 1.9 0.0 20.5 7th
8th 0.5 5.6 8.3 2.1 0.1 16.6 8th
9th 0.2 2.9 5.3 1.6 0.1 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 2.6 1.0 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.6 11th
Total 0.2 1.9 6.4 13.2 20.3 21.9 18.0 11.0 5.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 33.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.4% 8.5% 8.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 1.6% 9.3% 9.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
12-8 5.1% 4.0% 4.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.9
11-9 11.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.7
10-10 18.0% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.1 0.2 17.7
9-11 21.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 21.7
8-12 20.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 20.3
7-13 13.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.2
6-14 6.4% 6.4
5-15 1.9% 1.9
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.1 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%