Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#243
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#183
Pace87.2#2
Improvement-0.9#251

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#242
First Shot-1.5#216
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#253
Layup/Dunks-5.3#335
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.7#5
Freethrows-1.3#253
Improvement+0.9#108

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#230
First Shot-3.9#305
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#70
Layups/Dunks+0.5#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#329
Freethrows-0.7#231
Improvement-1.8#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.0% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 17.4% 21.8% 8.3%
.500 or above in Conference 41.3% 49.4% 25.1%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 3.6% 13.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round1.5% 2.0% 0.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 66.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 33 - 75 - 13
Quad 48 - 612 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 32 @USC L 64-94 4%     0 - 1 -13.5 -12.5 +3.6
  Sat, Nov 8 114 @Seattle W 73-71 15%     1 - 1 +8.5 -0.9 +9.3
  Wed, Nov 12 74 @Colorado St. L 79-93 9%     1 - 2 -3.4 +2.0 -4.4
  Fri, Nov 14 197 @Montana L 82-90 31%     1 - 3 -7.4 -2.7 -3.6
  Thu, Nov 20 117 @Utah W 92-85 16%     2 - 3 +13.2 +6.4 +5.7
  Mon, Nov 24 263 @Northern Arizona L 87-93 43%     2 - 4 -8.7 +2.1 -10.1
  Tue, Nov 25 233 Southeast Missouri St. L 68-84 49%     2 - 5 -20.2 -10.4 -8.9
  Thu, Dec 4 303 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94-91 51%     3 - 5 1 - 0 -1.9 +1.5 -3.9
  Sat, Dec 6 271 UC Riverside W 83-78 67%    
  Tue, Dec 16 152 Montana St. L 78-80 44%    
  Fri, Dec 19 31 @UCLA L 68-89 2%    
  Sun, Dec 21 187 Idaho W 81-80 52%    
  Thu, Jan 1 102 UC San Diego L 79-85 28%    
  Sat, Jan 3 286 @Long Beach St. L 79-80 47%    
  Thu, Jan 8 253 @Cal St. Northridge L 86-88 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 168 UC Davis L 78-79 47%    
  Thu, Jan 15 108 Hawaii L 79-85 30%    
  Thu, Jan 22 148 @UC Santa Barbara L 77-85 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 94-88 71%    
  Thu, Jan 29 280 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 81-82 46%    
  Sat, Jan 31 271 @UC Riverside L 80-81 45%    
  Thu, Feb 5 253 Cal St. Northridge W 89-85 63%    
  Sat, Feb 7 168 @UC Davis L 75-82 28%    
  Thu, Feb 12 125 UC Irvine L 75-79 34%    
  Sat, Feb 14 148 UC Santa Barbara L 80-82 42%    
  Fri, Feb 20 108 @Hawaii L 76-88 15%    
  Thu, Feb 26 286 Long Beach St. W 82-77 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 102 @UC San Diego L 76-88 14%    
  Thu, Mar 5 125 @UC Irvine L 72-82 18%    
  Sat, Mar 7 280 Cal St. Bakersfield W 84-79 67%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.3 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.0 4.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.3 2.7 6.4 5.1 1.7 0.2 16.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.2 4.6 1.1 0.1 15.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.4 3.7 0.7 0.0 12.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.4 2.9 0.6 0.1 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.2 3.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.1 5.9 9.2 11.7 13.5 13.7 12.3 10.3 7.8 5.5 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 75.6% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
16-4 59.8% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.1
15-5 30.5% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
14-6 6.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 18.3% 18.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.6% 24.9% 24.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
15-5 1.6% 15.5% 15.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-6 2.8% 6.9% 6.9% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.6
13-7 5.5% 4.9% 4.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.3
12-8 7.8% 3.1% 3.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.6
11-9 10.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.1
10-10 12.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.1
9-11 13.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.6
8-12 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.4
7-13 11.7% 11.7
6-14 9.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.2
5-15 5.9% 5.9
4-16 3.1% 3.1
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 98.4 0.0%