Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.9 265
Expected Predictive Rating -5.7 254
Pace 82.7 1
Improvement +0.1 180

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #217 C C- F B- B+
Defense D+ #298 D+ D+ C- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 214 56% 229 -1.5 240
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% 361 28% 364 -5.8 365
Three Pointers 55% 2 34% 174 +7.4 17
1st FG Attempt 1.02 167 +0.0 168
Second Chance 30.8% 173 0.95 290 0.29 219
Turnovers 21.1% 353
Freethrows 0.31 171 78% 16 0.24 110
Total Offense -1.9 217

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 176 62% 296 -1.9 250
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 306 40% 264 +1.2 98
Three Pointers 45% 72 34% 199 -2.1 288
1st FG Attempt 1.08 277 -2.8 276
Second Chance 32.6% 272 1.09 269 0.35 285
Turnovers 16.2% 218
Freethrows 0.29 127 73% 239 0.21 139
Total Defense -4.0 298

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.6 18 +0.6 271
Shot Type Accuracy -1.4 220 +2.2 269
Possession Length 14.6 6 17.2 174
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 151 0.20 285
Improvement +2.2 #75 -2.1 #296

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 4% 10% 1%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 2% 0% 3%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Home) - 29.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 85 - 15
Quad 44 - 710 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 47 @USC L 64 - 94 4% -12  0% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -13 C- D+ F C+ +2 C A- C
 Sat, Nov 8 132 @Seattle W 73 - 71 16% -4  14% 1 - 1 B- +7 C +0 B C F B+ +6 D+ C+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 103 @Colorado St. L 79 - 93 11% -9  0% 1 - 2 D+ -6 C -0 B- F+ D+ D+ -5 D+ B- F+
 Fri, Nov 14 170 @Montana L 82 - 90 21% -7  3% 1 - 3 D+ -6 C- -2 C- C- D+ C- -3 A- D- F
 Thu, Nov 20 110 @Utah W 92 - 85 12% +7  90% 2 - 3 B+ +14 C+ +3 A+ C F A- +9 B- A A-
 Mon, Nov 24 311 @Northern Arizona L 87 - 93 50% -0  35% 2 - 4 D- -12 D -4 B- F F+ D -7 F+ F+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 230 Southeast Missouri St. L 68 - 84 41% -3  54% 2 - 5 F -20 F -12 F A- F D -6 C- C- C-
 Thu, Dec 4 210 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94 - 91 28% +5  85% 3 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +3 A+ F F C -0 D+ F+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 293 UC Riverside L 84 - 88 68% -7  14% 3 - 6 1 - 1 F+ -15 C+ +2 B F+ D- F -17 D- F F
 Tue, Dec 16 162 Montana St. L 80 - 83 40% -3  18% 3 - 7 D+ -6 C +1 F A+ C+ D- -8 B+ F F
 Fri, Dec 19 34 @UCLA L 87 - 108 3% -7  23% 3 - 8 C- -4 A- +10 A+ C+ F F -11 F A D-
 Sun, Dec 21 189 Idaho L 80 - 83 OT 46% -7  5% 3 - 9 D+ -8 F -10 F F D+ B- +3 B C- C+
 Thu, Jan 1 139 UC San Diego W 67 - 65 34% -2  17% 4 - 9 2 - 1 C +0 D+ -4 D- C+ B+ B +4 A+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 251 @Long Beach St. L 66 - 74 35% -10  1% 4 - 10 2 - 2 D -10 F -11 F C+ B- C+ +1 C- C C
 Thu, Jan 8 186 @Cal St. Northridge L 90 - 95 24% +3  73% 4 - 11 2 - 3 C- -4 C+ +3 C C C- D -6 F D- C
 Sat, Jan 10 180 UC Davis W 84 - 78 44% -6  9% 5 - 11 3 - 3 C+ +2 C+ +2 D C A C -1 B+ C D-
 Thu, Jan 15 102 Hawaii L 66 - 86 23% -8  2% 5 - 12 3 - 4 F -18 F -11 C+ C+ F D+ -5 D C+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 133 @UC Santa Barbara L 67 - 107 16% -24  0% 5 - 13 3 - 5 F -35 D- -6 C- D- D F -31 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 210 Cal St. Fullerton L 78 - 93 50% -8  8% 5 - 14 3 - 6 F -21 D+ -3 C B+ F F -17 F C C-
 Thu, Jan 29 322 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 104 - 79 55% +15  83% 6 - 14 4 - 6 A +18 A+ +16 A+ C- F C -0 F+ F B
 Sat, Jan 31 293 @UC Riverside W 94 - 87 45% +2  67% 7 - 14 5 - 6 C+ +2 A +11 B+ C+ C- F+ -9 F+ F A
 Thu, Feb 5 186 Cal St. Northridge L 96 - 97 45% -5  18% 7 - 15 5 - 7 D+ -6 B +6 A+ C D- F -12 F F D+
 Sat, Feb 7 180 @UC Davis L 58 - 67 23% +2  72% 7 - 16 5 - 8 D+ -7 F -16 F D F A- +8 A- C+ B+
 Thu, Feb 12 119 UC Irvine L 76 - 82 30%
 Sat, Feb 14 133 UC Santa Barbara L 79 - 84 33%
 Fri, Feb 20 102 @Hawaii L 74 - 88 10%
 Thu, Feb 26 251 Long Beach St. W 83 - 81 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 139 @UC San Diego L 75 - 85 17%
 Thu, Mar 5 119 @UC Irvine L 73 - 85 14%
 Sat, Mar 7 322 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 80 75%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 13 -6 C- -2 C C- F D+ -4 D+ D+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- F C C- 37% 8% 55% B+ C C D+ C- F C B+ B- D+ D+ D+ C D+ 39% 16% 45% D+ D+ D+ D+ D+ C- C+ C- C+
1.06 56% 28% 34% -1 +2 1.02 31% 0.9 .29 21% .31 78% .24 1.14 62% 40% 34% +2 +1 1.08 33% 1.1 .35 16% .29 73% .23
Nov
3		 USC F F+ A D D- 48% 4% 48% A+ C- A- F D+ F F F F C+ C+ A+ D B- 46% 9% 44% F C C A+ A- C F B+ F
0.77 44% 50% 30% -9 +3 0.89 35% 0.6 .21 27% .20 58% .12 1.13 60% 20% 38% +2 +2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 17% .58 68% .39
Nov
8		 Seattle C D- D- A- B 32% 6% 62% B+ B A F C F A+ C+ A+ B+ D+ F B- C- 44% 11% 45% D- D+ F A+ C+ A B A+ A+
0.96 47% 33% 38% 0 +1 1.04 41% 0.7 .29 30% .41 73% .30 0.93 63% 50% 32% +2 +2 1.09 32% 0.6 .19 22% .24 36% .08
Nov
12		 Colorado St. C D B- A- B- 31% 13% 56% B B- D F F+ D+ C+ F C- D+ C- A+ F C- 33% 5% 61% F+ D+ A+ F B- F+ C+ F D-
1.05 53% 43% 39% +3 0 1.09 22% 0.9 .20 17% .29 61% .18 1.24 63% 0% 43% +8 +2 1.21 19% 1.7 .31 15% .31 95% .30
Nov
14		 Montana C- D F C+ D 59% 10% 31% A+ C- C C- C- D+ C+ C+ B- C- D- A+ A A- 36% 14% 50% C- A- C F D- F F D+ F
1.01 53% 17% 33% -5 +3 0.97 29% 1.0 .29 17% .31 71% .22 1.11 67% 25% 28% -3 +1 0.97 23% 1.4 .33 15% .42 79% .33
Nov
20		 Utah C+ F D- A+ A 56% 6% 38% A+ A+ C- B- C F A+ F A+ A- C+ D+ B- B+ 47% 8% 45% F+ B- A+ C- A A- C- F D
1.10 45% 33% 60% +7 +3 1.23 28% 1.1 .31 23% .48 58% .28 1.02 57% 40% 33% -1 +2 1.05 16% 1.0 .16 19% .33 82% .27
Nov
24		 Northern Arizona D B F C+ C 43% 2% 55% A- B- F+ F+ F F+ D- A- D+ D C- F F F 39% 21% 39% D+ F+ F+ D F+ D+ F A+ F
1.10 65% 0% 36% +5 +3 1.17 26% 0.9 .23 20% .24 80% .19 1.17 59% 50% 41% +7 0 1.16 30% 1.1 .33 15% .49 55% .27
Nov
25		 Southeast Missouri St. F F F F F 34% 15% 51% C- F A C A- F A+ A+ A+ D C- F A- C 50% 7% 43% F C- F+ A- C- C- B F D+
0.91 31% 14% 21% -23 0 0.57 38% 1.2 .45 25% .66 84% .56 1.12 59% 50% 28% -3 +3 1.02 34% 1.1 .37 16% .27 88% .24
Dec
4		 Cal St. Fullerton C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 4% 69% B A+ F F F F A+ C+ A+ C B+ F F D+ 41% 22% 37% C D+ D- D- F+ A- F B- F+
1.10 57% 50% 50% +17 +1 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 26% .47 73% .35 1.06 50% 46% 41% +2 0 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 20% .42 69% .29
Dec
6		 UC Riverside C+ A- A+ C- B- 45% 6% 49% A- B C F F+ D- A+ A+ A+ F F F A+ D- 48% 19% 33% D D- C F F F D- A- D+
1.18 68% 67% 33% +6 +2 1.18 30% 0.6 .18 18% .45 81% .36 1.23 73% 50% 22% +4 +1 1.11 27% 1.3 .36 7% .36 67% .24
Dec
16		 Montana St. C F D- F F 45% 6% 49% A- F A A+ A+ C+ A+ D- A+ D- F A+ A+ A 30% 14% 55% F+ B+ D+ F F F F A- F
1.11 41% 33% 25% -14 +2 0.78 40% 1.6 .64 15% .51 71% .36 1.16 76% 25% 23% -6 0 0.91 32% 1.5 .48 11% .39 68% .27
Dec
19		 UCLA A- A F A+ A+ 34% 2% 64% A+ A+ C B- C+ F A+ A+ A+ F F B F F 51% 5% 44% F F A+ F A D- F+ F F
1.11 69% 0% 43% +12 +2 1.30 29% 1.0 .29 31% .40 95% .38 1.37 72% 33% 44% +14 +3 1.35 16% 1.8 .28 10% .41 90% .37
Dec
21		 Idaho F C+ A F F 33% 7% 60% A F D+ F F D+ A+ A- A+ B- A+ A+ F B- 19% 26% 54% A+ B B F C- C+ F C- F
0.96 61% 50% 21% -10 +1 0.85 23% 0.5 .11 17% .57 79% .45 1.00 36% 20% 42% -2 -2 0.93 24% 1.2 .28 17% .41 75% .30
Jan
1		 UC San Diego D+ C+ F F+ F+ 26% 7% 67% B D- B+ D- C+ B+ D+ C+ C- B A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 15% 53% B A+ F F F C+ B F C-
1.01 57% 0% 28% -9 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 14% .24 71% .17 0.98 41% 25% 25% -14 0 0.74 35% 1.2 .42 17% .23 85% .20
Jan
3		 Long Beach St. F F F D- F 35% 8% 56% B+ F D- A+ C+ B- B+ D B- C+ F A- A+ C 47% 26% 26% F+ C- A- F C C C- B C
0.93 35% 0% 30% -15 +1 0.75 22% 1.6 .36 15% .42 72% .30 1.04 76% 29% 21% +1 0 1.04 21% 1.3 .27 17% .29 71% .20
Jan
8		 Cal St. Northridge C+ C- F B- C 23% 13% 64% C C D A C C- C C+ C+ D D+ D- F F 53% 13% 34% D F F C+ D- C F A- D
1.11 57% 25% 36% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.4 .32 16% .31 76% .24 1.17 61% 43% 50% +10 +2 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 17% .40 59% .24
Jan
10		 UC Davis C+ C+ A+ F D 28% 11% 60% C- D F A+ C A A+ A+ A+ C B- A- D B- 20% 33% 47% A+ B+ B F+ C D- B- F C-
1.14 60% 50% 28% -3 0 0.96 20% 1.6 .31 14% .44 93% .41 1.06 55% 28% 38% -1 -3 0.95 23% 1.2 .28 15% .32 85% .27
Jan
15		 Hawaii F C A+ F+ C 40% 8% 52% B+ C+ A- D- C+ F C F D+ D+ F+ F A- F+ 40% 21% 39% B+ D C B- C+ C A+ F A-
0.85 55% 50% 27% -6 +2 0.94 36% 0.9 .31 30% .31 59% .18 1.10 70% 58% 27% +5 0 1.12 31% 1.0 .31 19% .22 86% .19
Jan
22		 UC Santa Barbara D- A+ F F D+ 39% 7% 54% A- C- F B+ D- D C+ D+ C F F A F F 41% 13% 46% D F F D- F F A+ B A+
1.00 78% 0% 28% 0 +2 1.07 17% 1.2 .21 19% .37 70% .26 1.60 95% 29% 56% +29 +1 1.63 45% 1.1 .50 13% .19 73% .14
Jan
24		 Cal St. Fullerton D+ D- A+ C- C 28% 6% 67% B- C A+ D B+ F D+ C+ C- F D- F F F 38% 10% 52% F+ F F A+ C C- F F F
1.06 53% 100% 33% +2 +1 1.07 43% 0.9 .40 26% .27 73% .20 1.26 65% 60% 41% +10 +1 1.25 34% 0.7 .24 15% .41 81% .33
Jan
29		 Cal St. Bakersfield A+ A+ F A A+ 49% 2% 49% A+ A+ A F C- F D+ A+ A C B+ F D- F 31% 29% 40% C F+ D- F F B A+ A+ A+
1.34 78% 0% 41% +14 +3 1.36 48% 0.8 .38 24% .34 100% .34 1.02 47% 50% 36% +2 -2 1.02 37% 1.2 .45 22% .23 50% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Riverside A B+ A+ C+ B 52% 6% 43% A B+ B+ D- C+ C- C A+ B+ F+ D+ F D+ F 35% 31% 33% A F+ F A- F A F A F
1.26 68% 67% 35% +7 +3 1.22 38% 0.8 .31 16% .34 81% .27 1.17 61% 56% 35% +8 -2 1.14 54% 0.7 .38 24% .46 65% .30
Feb
5		 Cal St. Northridge B A+ A- A+ 33% 0% 67% A A+ F A+ C D- F A+ D+ F C+ F F F 49% 17% 33% C F B+ F F D+ A+ D- A+
1.20 74% 38% +10 +2 1.26 16% 2.0 .32 19% .22 93% .20 1.22 55% 55% 48% +8 +1 1.21 27% 1.6 .43 16% .15 70% .10
Feb
7		 UC Davis F F A+ F F 41% 2% 57% A- F C+ F D F D- A+ B A- C A+ A A 42% 15% 44% F+ A- F A+ C+ B+ B F C-
0.84 32% 100% 27% -15 +3 0.76 33% 0.7 .23 27% .28 100% .28 0.97 60% 14% 29% -6 +1 0.92 38% 0.7 .25 22% .31 88% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 1.3 0.1 2.8 6th
7th 0.4 4.2 5.9 1.1 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.1 3.7 19.0 20.1 4.8 0.2 47.8 8th
9th 2.1 14.0 13.5 2.8 0.1 32.5 9th
10th 1.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.2 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 4.1 19.6 33.2 27.2 12.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.5% 0.5
10-10 3.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.1
9-11 12.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.2
8-12 27.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 27.1
7-13 33.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 33.2
6-14 19.6% 19.6
5-15 4.1% 4.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.1%