Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#164
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#268
Pace65.2#294
Improvement-0.7#232

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#180
First Shot-0.2#181
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#205
Layup/Dunks-3.2#291
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#41
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#83
Freethrows-3.5#338
Improvement+1.1#89

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#164
First Shot-2.4#253
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#48
Layups/Dunks-2.7#279
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#36
Freethrows-1.6#274
Improvement-1.8#312
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 17.6% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 43.8% 58.8% 34.3%
.500 or above in Conference 73.0% 78.7% 69.4%
Conference Champion 19.7% 24.8% 16.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 3.3% 5.8%
First Four2.2% 1.4% 2.8%
First Round14.0% 17.0% 12.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 38.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 35 - 65 - 11
Quad 49 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 63 @Colorado L 78-84 13%     0 - 1 +5.7 +9.1 -3.6
  Sun, Nov 9 294 Denver L 73-75 82%     0 - 2 -12.4 -3.5 -9.0
  Wed, Nov 12 85 @Stanford L 68-77 17%     0 - 3 +0.4 -4.1 +5.1
  Sat, Nov 15 52 @Boise St. L 58-62 10%     0 - 4 +9.3 -0.3 +9.1
  Fri, Nov 21 280 @Long Beach St. W 78-72 61%     1 - 4 +2.5 +4.2 -1.6
  Sat, Nov 29 51 @Utah St. L 81-84 OT 10%     1 - 5 +10.5 +6.6 +4.2
  Wed, Dec 3 169 St. Thomas W 82-74 62%     2 - 5 +4.2 +9.8 -5.3
  Sat, Dec 6 301 @Oral Roberts L 68-72 66%     2 - 6 -8.7 -2.7 -6.4
  Sat, Dec 13 165 @Oregon St. L 67-70 39%    
  Tue, Dec 16 252 @Cal Poly W 80-78 55%    
  Thu, Jan 1 157 Northern Colorado W 74-71 60%    
  Sat, Jan 3 251 Northern Arizona W 73-66 75%    
  Thu, Jan 8 234 @Eastern Washington W 75-74 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 173 @Idaho L 71-73 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 206 Montana W 77-72 68%    
  Mon, Jan 19 157 @Northern Colorado L 71-74 38%    
  Thu, Jan 22 168 Idaho St. W 69-66 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 195 Weber St. W 75-70 66%    
  Thu, Jan 29 278 @Sacramento St. W 75-72 59%    
  Sat, Jan 31 171 @Portland St. L 67-70 41%    
  Thu, Feb 5 173 Idaho W 74-70 63%    
  Sat, Feb 7 234 Eastern Washington W 78-71 73%    
  Sat, Feb 14 206 @Montana L 74-75 47%    
  Thu, Feb 19 195 @Weber St. L 72-73 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 168 @Idaho St. L 66-69 40%    
  Thu, Feb 26 171 Portland St. W 70-67 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 278 Sacramento St. W 78-69 78%    
  Mon, Mar 2 251 @Northern Arizona W 70-69 55%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.1 5.2 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 19.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.2 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.8 6.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 6.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.3 2.6 0.3 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 4.9 7.2 9.6 11.8 13.5 13.3 12.0 9.6 6.5 3.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 99.4% 1.8    1.7 0.1
15-3 94.6% 3.7    3.3 0.4 0.0
14-4 80.3% 5.2    3.7 1.4 0.1
13-5 53.3% 5.1    2.4 2.1 0.5 0.1
12-6 22.7% 2.7    0.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.8% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.7% 19.7 12.6 5.2 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 48.6% 48.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.6% 48.6% 48.6% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
16-2 1.8% 39.2% 39.2% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.1
15-3 3.9% 37.3% 37.3% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5
14-4 6.5% 29.0% 29.0% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.6
13-5 9.6% 25.3% 25.3% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 7.2
12-6 12.0% 19.6% 19.6% 14.7 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.1 9.7
11-7 13.3% 15.6% 15.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.6 11.2
10-8 13.5% 12.0% 12.0% 15.6 0.0 0.6 1.0 11.9
9-9 11.8% 8.2% 8.2% 15.9 0.1 0.9 10.8
8-10 9.6% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.5 9.1
7-11 7.2% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.3 7.0
6-12 4.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 4.7
5-13 2.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-14 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.1 4.6 3.6 85.2 0.0%