Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.2 144
Expected Predictive Rating +3.2 113
Pace 69.1 167
Improvement +2.2 100

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 258 C C- D- C B-
Defense B- 61 B B- B- F+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 32 C- 56% 214 +3.0 86
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 226 C- 36% 238 -1.3 253
Three Pointers 37% 265 C 34% 166 -1.9 250
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 76 C- -0.9 205
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 178
Second Chance C 30.9% 167 D 0.93 304 C- 0.29 231
Turnovers D- 19.6% 329
Freethrows C+ 0.32 152 D+ 70% 264 C 0.22 179
Total Offense D+ -3.2 258

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 106 B- 55% 106 -0.6 198
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 188 B- 36% 97 +0.6 140
Three Pointers 38% 257 B+ 30% 30 +3.9 37
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.8 76 B -0.9 205
1st FG Attempt 0.94 57 B +3.9 57
Second Chance C+ 29.4% 130 B- 0.97 90 B- 0.29 96
Turnovers B- 18.6% 86
Freethrows F+ 0.38 341 D 75% 309 F+ 0.28 352
Total Defense B- +4.4 61

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 264 16.5 40
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 236 0.20 260
Improvement +0.0 #186 +2.2 #69

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28% 32% 26%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 96% 99% 93%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round28% 32% 26%
Second Round1% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Away) - 45.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 38 - 38 - 7
Quad 411 - 219 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 74 @Stanford L 79 - 89 19% -6  7% 0 - 1 C +1 C- -1 A+ F F B- +3 B- D+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 118 @San Francisco L 70 - 80 33% -12  0% 0 - 2 C- -4 D+ -2 D- B+ F C- -2 D+ C+ C
 Mon, Nov 17 325 Cal St. Bakersfield W 93 - 80 91% +7  99% 1 - 2 C -0 B +6 A+ A- D- D- -7 C- F A-
 Tue, Nov 25 192 @Utah Tech W 68 - 63 51% +1  48% 2 - 2 B- +6 F+ -9 D- D F A+ +14 B A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 278 @South Dakota W 77 - 71 69% +5  80% 3 - 2 C+ +2 F+ -8 D+ F C- A- +10 A+ F A
 Sat, Dec 6 242 Nebraska Omaha L 55 - 60 80% -2  17% 3 - 3 D- -13 F -14 F C- D- C+ +1 A F B
 Wed, Dec 17 77 @Colorado L 73 - 84 19% -1  30% 3 - 4 C -1 C- -1 D+ A+ F+ C+ +1 B- B- B+
 Sat, Dec 20 176 @Tulane L 61 - 63 46% -3  13% 3 - 5 C +0 F+ -9 F C+ D A- +9 A+ C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 224 @Weber St. W 95 - 90 OT 56% +0  46% 4 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +5 C +1 D+ C B B- +3 B B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 257 @Idaho St. W 93 - 87 OT 63% -5  22% 5 - 5 2 - 0 C+ +4 B+ +9 A+ F A- D -5 F+ B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 263 Sacramento St. W 96 - 69 82% +14  82% 6 - 5 3 - 0 A +18 A +12 A+ F C+ B +6 A- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 171 Northern Colorado W 76 - 73 68% -1  35% 7 - 5 4 - 0 C -1 D -5 C+ A F B- +4 D- A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 315 Northern Arizona W 63 - 52 89% +5  70% 8 - 5 5 - 0 C -1 F -13 F C- D- A+ +13 B- A+ A
 Thu, Jan 22 221 @Eastern Washington W 65 - 61 56% +5  95% 9 - 5 6 - 0 C+ +4 F -11 F B+ D A+ +14 A C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 202 @Idaho W 69 - 66 53% +5  84% 10 - 5 7 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -3 B+ F C B+ +7 C+ A- B+
 Thu, Jan 29 174 Montana L 60 - 64 68% -5  9% 10 - 6 7 - 1 D+ -8 F -15 F C+ F B+ +7 C+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 157 Montana St. W 63 - 54 66% +3  65% 11 - 6 8 - 1 B- +6 D -5 A+ F F A +12 A+ D+ A
 Mon, Feb 2 257 Idaho St. W 88 - 65 82% +13  95% 12 - 6 9 - 1 A- +15 A+ +17 A- B+ A+ C+ +1 A- F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 263 @Sacramento St. W 74 - 73 65% -1  35% 13 - 6 10 - 1 C- -2 D+ -2 F A B- C+ +1 B- A- F+
 Thu, Feb 12 315 @Northern Arizona W 77 - 68 76% +1  57% 14 - 6 11 - 1 C+ +3 B- +4 B+ B- F C -0 B- F+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 171 @Northern Colorado L 72 - 73 45%
 Thu, Feb 19 202 Idaho W 74 - 67 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 221 Eastern Washington W 77 - 70 76%
 Thu, Feb 26 157 @Montana St. L 67 - 69 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 174 @Montana L 71 - 72 45%
 Mon, Mar 2 224 Weber St. W 78 - 70 76%
Totals 18 - 8 15 - 3 +1 F -3 B C- B- B +4 C D+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C- C C- 45% 18% 37% B- C C D C- D- C+ D+ C B- B- B- B+ B 41% 20% 38% C- B C+ B- B- B- F+ D F+
1.04 56% 36% 34% -1 +1 1.02 31% 0.9 .29 20% .32 70% .22 1.02 55% 36% 30% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.0 .29 19% .38 75% .24
Nov
4		 Stanford C- B- F+ A+ A+ 33% 19% 48% B- A+ D+ F F F D- C D- B- C+ A+ C- B 58% 8% 34% D- B- B F D+ A F F F
0.98 61% 30% 50% +11 0 1.24 24% 0.0 .00 26% .27 75% .20 1.11 55% 25% 35% -2 +3 1.04 31% 1.2 .38 21% .57 81% .46
Nov
12		 San Francisco D+ F F D+ F+ 44% 15% 41% B+ D- A- C B+ F D D D C- C A+ F C- 40% 9% 51% F+ D+ F A C+ C F C- F
1.02 46% 25% 32% -9 +1 0.87 35% 1.1 .37 19% .23 69% .16 1.17 58% 0% 42% +3 +2 1.11 41% 0.9 .35 16% .43 72% .31
Nov
17		 Cal St. Bakersfield B B+ F A+ A+ 55% 11% 34% A A+ C A+ A- D- A- F+ B- D- A+ D+ F+ C- 34% 32% 34% C C- C+ F F A- F D- F
1.26 65% 20% 56% +14 +3 1.34 37% 1.4 .52 20% .44 65% .29 1.08 38% 40% 38% -5 -2 0.89 30% 1.9 .58 23% .51 79% .40
Nov
25		 Utah Tech F+ C F D- D- 43% 19% 38% C- D- A- F D F A+ C- A+ A+ D B A+ B 43% 21% 36% C+ B A+ A A+ B- A- F B
0.96 60% 22% 28% -6 0 0.91 41% 0.6 .26 24% .44 71% .31 0.89 67% 33% 25% -2 0 0.98 10% 0.7 .06 18% .17 80% .14
Dec
3		 South Dakota F+ C- F B+ D- 75% 9% 15% A D+ F+ F F C- A+ D- A A- A+ B- A+ A+ 62% 12% 26% F A+ D F F A F A F
1.00 58% 0% 38% -3 +4 1.04 25% 0.8 .19 17% .41 69% .28 0.93 39% 33% 23% -17 +3 0.74 33% 1.3 .43 22% .57 68% .38
Dec
6		 Nebraska Omaha F A- A+ F F 33% 7% 60% B F C- C C- D- B F D- C+ B+ A+ B- A+ 45% 15% 40% F+ A F F F B D F F
0.95 71% 67% 15% -10 +1 0.84 29% 1.0 .29 17% .36 53% .19 1.04 50% 0% 31% -11 +1 0.83 37% 1.4 .50 19% .34 88% .30
Dec
17		 Colorado C- C- D+ F+ D+ 44% 28% 28% C D+ C A+ A+ F+ B+ C- B C+ C F A B 44% 21% 35% C B- C- B+ B- B+ F F F
1.02 55% 36% 29% -4 -1 0.92 27% 1.8 .48 20% .35 70% .24 1.18 61% 55% 28% +2 0 1.06 34% 0.8 .28 17% .44 85% .37
Dec
20		 Tulane F+ F A+ F F 40% 21% 38% C F C- B C+ D C- F D A- A F A+ A+ 50% 18% 32% D- A+ F A+ C+ A+ F F+ F
0.93 42% 60% 22% -8 0 0.85 32% 1.1 .35 20% .31 63% .19 0.96 45% 50% 14% -13 +1 0.77 36% 0.6 .22 23% .59 83% .50
Jan
1		 Weber St. C F+ F A+ D+ 45% 16% 39% C+ D+ B- D- C B A- F+ B- B- C- A A B+ 42% 14% 44% C+ B B+ B- B+ F F C+ F
1.13 52% 10% 44% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.0 .33 14% .40 66% .26 1.07 58% 25% 28% -6 +1 0.93 27% 0.9 .25 12% .56 69% .39
Jan
3		 Idaho St. B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ 45% 17% 38% B- A+ F+ F F A- A- A- A D D+ C- F F 35% 10% 56% D+ F+ C A+ B+ F+ F A- F
1.26 75% 67% 35% +13 +1 1.30 22% 0.5 .11 11% .40 85% .33 1.18 61% 40% 41% +8 +1 1.19 33% 0.7 .24 14% .47 67% .31
Jan
10		 Sacramento St. A A A+ A+ A+ 50% 9% 41% B A+ A F F C+ C+ A- B B C- C- A+ B+ 29% 38% 33% A A- A+ A+ A+ F F C- F
1.33 70% 60% 45% +15 +2 1.37 42% 0.5 .23 15% .33 80% .26 0.95 56% 38% 17% -9 -3 0.78 17% 0.6 .10 7% .42 79% .33
Jan
15		 Northern Colorado D C+ A F+ B- 43% 26% 32% D C+ A C+ A F A+ D- A+ B- F A+ F F+ 26% 16% 58% B- D- A+ A+ A+ B F B+ D-
1.05 60% 50% 27% 0 0 1.02 37% 1.2 .43 24% .51 71% .36 1.01 77% 25% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 0.0 .00 19% .33 68% .22
Jan
17		 Northern Arizona F F+ F D+ F 47% 9% 45% B+ F B- F+ C- D- A F B- A+ A- C F+ B- 40% 26% 35% C B- A+ A+ A+ A D C+ D
1.02 50% 25% 33% -5 +2 0.96 37% 0.9 .34 19% .38 63% .24 0.84 47% 36% 40% -2 -1 0.98 14% 0.0 .00 21% .31 67% .21
Jan
22		 Eastern Washington F C F F F 56% 19% 25% B- F D A+ B+ D F A D- A+ A- A- B+ A+ 42% 29% 29% B- A A- F+ C+ C+ F C+ F
0.96 59% 22% 17% -9 +2 0.88 29% 1.6 .46 19% .24 85% .20 0.90 47% 31% 31% -8 -1 0.84 24% 1.3 .30 19% .42 74% .31
Jan
24		 Idaho D+ D- A A+ B- 66% 12% 22% A+ B+ F F F C F+ D- F B+ C A+ B B 47% 11% 42% F+ C+ C+ A+ A- B+ F B+ F
1.03 52% 50% 55% +4 +3 1.16 13% 0.0 .00 15% .28 69% .19 0.98 57% 20% 32% -4 +2 0.98 26% 0.7 .17 19% .46 68% .31
Jan
29		 Montana F F+ C F F 40% 20% 40% C+ F C B- C+ F A+ C A+ B+ F D+ A+ C 44% 29% 27% B+ C+ B- A+ A+ A- F D+ F
0.88 50% 38% 19% -12 0 0.78 30% 1.1 .33 25% .58 70% .41 0.93 78% 42% 18% +3 -1 1.07 20% 0.4 .08 25% .48 80% .39
Jan
31		 Montana St. D B+ A A+ A+ 44% 23% 33% C- A+ B+ F F F C- F D A A- D A+ A+ 24% 37% 39% A+ A+ F B D+ A C- F D
1.03 63% 50% 43% +9 0 1.21 37% 0.5 .17 23% .25 67% .17 0.88 45% 47% 17% -10 -3 0.76 36% 0.9 .33 21% .27 85% .23
Feb
2		 Idaho St. A+ D- A+ A+ A- 54% 20% 26% B- A- C A B+ A+ C C+ C+ C+ C A+ B A 51% 14% 35% D- A- F D F A+ F C- F
1.42 52% 60% 54% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.3 .41 6% .33 79% .26 1.05 58% 0% 31% -7 +2 0.92 47% 1.1 .50 24% .58 74% .43
Feb
7		 Sacramento St. D+ F D F F 47% 16% 37% C F A C+ A B- A+ B A+ C+ A+ A+ F B- 33% 26% 41% C B- A- B+ A- F+ F D- F
1.08 42% 38% 21% -15 +1 0.75 44% 1.2 .51 15% .45 77% .34 1.07 40% 17% 42% -6 -1 0.87 21% 1.0 .21 12% .50 83% .41
Feb
12		 Northern Arizona B- A- A D+ B 61% 16% 24% B+ B+ F A+ B- F A+ A A+ C C+ F A+ B 32% 16% 52% D+ B- C F F+ F D+ F F+
1.22 70% 50% 33% +9 +2 1.24 20% 2.0 .40 21% .54 81% .44 1.08 56% 75% 23% -3 0 0.96 24% 1.4 .32 11% .28 81% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.9 12.1 27.7 30.2 18.6 5.2 95.8 1st
2nd 0.3 1.8 1.7 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.3 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.5 4.0 13.9 27.7 30.2 18.6 5.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 5.2    5.2
16-2 100.0% 18.6    18.6
15-3 100.0% 30.2    30.2
14-4 100.0% 27.7    24.9 2.9
13-5 87.6% 12.1    7.0 4.6 0.5
12-6 47.6% 1.9    0.4 1.0 0.5 0.1
11-7 8.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8
9-9
Total 95.8% 95.8 86.2 8.5 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 5.2% 39.5% 39.5% 12.6 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.1 3.1
16-2 18.6% 34.0% 34.0% 13.3 0.0 0.6 3.5 2.1 0.1 12.3
15-3 30.2% 30.3% 30.3% 13.6 0.2 3.6 4.8 0.5 21.0
14-4 27.7% 25.6% 25.6% 13.9 0.1 1.7 4.3 1.1 0.0 20.7
13-5 13.9% 21.4% 21.4% 14.1 0.3 1.9 0.7 0.0 10.9
12-6 4.0% 17.6% 17.6% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.3
11-7 0.5% 14.7% 14.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.3% 28.3% 0.0% 13.6 71.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 12.6 1.0 47.0 46.2 5.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%
Lose Out 0.2%