UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#222
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#172
Pace68.6#169
Improvement+0.5#162

Offense
Total Offense-6.5#335
First Shot-3.4#277
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#334
Layup/Dunks-4.8#334
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#317
Freethrows+3.0#33
Improvement+1.1#125

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#87
First Shot+3.8#66
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#235
Layups/Dunks+1.5#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#150
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#67
Freethrows-1.0#260
Improvement-0.6#220
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 38.9% 66.7% 21.5%
.500 or above in Conference 73.8% 100.0% 57.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 38.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 22 - 52 - 8
Quad 35 - 46 - 12
Quad 48 - 315 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 90   @ Washington L 73-79 14%     0 - 1 +2.3 -6.6 +9.8
  Nov 07, 2024 253   @ Idaho W 79-75 48%     1 - 1 +1.3 -1.8 +3.0
  Nov 17, 2024 88   @ Stanford L 65-79 13%     1 - 2 -5.1 -6.6 +2.0
  Nov 20, 2024 89   @ Grand Canyon W 75-68 14%     2 - 2 +15.4 +4.2 +10.8
  Nov 25, 2024 181   Norfolk St. L 55-76 52%     2 - 3 -24.7 -20.4 -4.4
  Nov 30, 2024 87   @ Oregon St. L 57-90 13%     2 - 4 -24.1 -10.4 -15.9
  Dec 05, 2024 242   Cal Poly W 77-66 64%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +4.0 -11.2 +13.6
  Dec 07, 2024 145   UC Santa Barbara W 71-60 44%     4 - 4 2 - 0 +9.4 +0.4 +9.7
  Dec 14, 2024 332   @ Sacramento St. W 69-62 68%     5 - 4 -1.2 -3.6 +2.6
  Dec 18, 2024 253   Idaho W 74-66 67%     6 - 4 +0.3 -7.2 +7.4
  Dec 21, 2024 226   @ Pepperdine L 46-85 41%     6 - 5 -40.0 -27.5 -12.5
  Jan 02, 2025 240   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 64-75 45%     6 - 6 2 - 1 -12.8 -7.0 -6.5
  Jan 04, 2025 114   @ Cal St. Northridge L 61-73 21%     6 - 7 2 - 2 -6.6 -12.2 +6.3
  Jan 09, 2025 342   Cal St. Fullerton W 63-53 85%     7 - 7 3 - 2 -4.6 -16.0 +11.3
  Jan 11, 2025 304   Long Beach St. L 73-84 77%     7 - 8 3 - 3 -21.9 -2.7 -19.8
  Jan 16, 2025 242   @ Cal Poly W 65-54 45%     8 - 8 4 - 3 +9.1 -0.6 +11.3
  Jan 18, 2025 145   @ UC Santa Barbara W 64-60 26%     9 - 8 5 - 3 +7.5 +3.2 +5.0
  Jan 23, 2025 207   Hawaii W 68-66 57%     10 - 8 6 - 3 -3.1 +2.0 -4.8
  Jan 30, 2025 149   @ UC Riverside L 58-60 27%     10 - 9 6 - 4 +1.2 -3.8 +4.6
  Feb 01, 2025 85   @ UC Irvine L 66-73 12%     10 - 10 6 - 5 +2.3 +2.2 +0.0
  Feb 06, 2025 304   @ Long Beach St. W 73-65 OT 60%     11 - 10 7 - 5 +2.2 -7.4 +9.2
  Feb 08, 2025 342   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 65-49 73%     12 - 10 8 - 5 +6.5 -8.6 +15.7
  Feb 13, 2025 149   UC Riverside W 75-74 45%     13 - 10 9 - 5 -0.9 +2.3 -3.2
  Feb 15, 2025 54   @ UC San Diego L 60-85 7%     13 - 11 9 - 6 -11.9 -2.3 -11.2
  Feb 20, 2025 240   Cal St. Bakersfield L 66-71 64%     13 - 12 9 - 7 -11.9 -7.9 -4.4
  Feb 22, 2025 114   Cal St. Northridge L 71-75 39%    
  Mar 02, 2025 207   @ Hawaii L 63-66 37%    
  Mar 06, 2025 85   UC Irvine L 62-69 26%    
  Mar 08, 2025 54   UC San Diego L 61-72 15%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 3rd
4th 0.5 2.1 0.5 3.1 4th
5th 0.8 8.4 15.7 4.8 0.1 29.8 5th
6th 22.7 31.9 9.4 0.2 64.2 6th
7th 2.7 0.1 2.7 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 26.2 40.4 25.6 7.1 0.8 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 13.0 0.0 0.8
12-8 7.1% 0.4% 0.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 7.1
11-9 25.6% 0.3% 0.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 25.5
10-10 40.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 40.2
9-11 26.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 26.1
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 14.2%