IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC Davis
Big West
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.2	#191
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.5	#211
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.5	#256

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.3	#133

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	9.0%	16.5%	8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.6	12.9	13.8

.500 or above	53.2%	77.6%	50.1%
.500 or above in Conference	65.0%	80.1%	63.1%
Conference Champion	10.2%	18.9%	9.1%
Last Place in Conference	3.7%	1.3%	4.1%

First Four	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
First Round	8.9%	16.4%	7.9%
Second Round	1.0%	2.9%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.7%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 11.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 5
Quad 3	4 - 6	4 - 10
Quad 4	11 - 5	15 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2024	62	@ Washington	L	67-80	11%
Nov 07, 2024	279	@ Idaho	W	67-66	56%
Nov 17, 2024	93	@ Stanford	L	66-76	17%
Nov 20, 2024	69	@ Grand Canyon	L	64-76	13%
Nov 25, 2024	251	Norfolk St.	W	71-65	70%
Nov 30, 2024	123	@ Oregon St.	L	63-70	28%
Dec 05, 2024	345	Cal Poly	W	72-58	88%
Dec 07, 2024	167	UC Santa Barbara	W	71-69	57%
Dec 14, 2024	300	@ Sacramento St.	W	66-63	60%
Dec 18, 2024	279	Idaho	W	70-63	74%
Dec 21, 2024	217	@ Pepperdine	L	69-70	46%
Jan 02, 2025	278	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	W	65-64	55%
Jan 04, 2025	239	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	73-74	49%
Jan 09, 2025	244	Cal St. Fullerton	W	69-63	69%
Jan 11, 2025	245	Long Beach St.	W	76-70	69%
Jan 16, 2025	345	@ Cal Poly	W	69-61	74%
Jan 18, 2025	167	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	68-72	37%
Jan 23, 2025	192	Hawaii	W	68-65	61%
Jan 30, 2025	183	@ UC Riverside	L	67-70	39%
Feb 01, 2025	103	@ UC Irvine	L	65-74	22%
Feb 06, 2025	245	@ Long Beach St.	L	73-74	49%
Feb 08, 2025	244	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	65-66	50%
Feb 13, 2025	183	UC Riverside	W	70-67	59%
Feb 15, 2025	162	@ UC San Diego	L	66-70	36%
Feb 20, 2025	278	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	68-61	73%
Feb 22, 2025	239	Cal St. Northridge	W	76-70	68%
Mar 02, 2025	192	@ Hawaii	L	65-68	41%
Mar 06, 2025	103	UC Irvine	L	68-71	39%
Mar 08, 2025	162	UC San Diego	W	69-67	56%
Projected Record						15 - 14	11 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.8	1.9	2.7	2.4	1.5	0.6	0.2		10.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.4	2.0	3.6	3.6	1.9	0.6	0.1				12.1	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.8	2.8	4.6	3.1	1.0	0.1	0.0					12.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.9	3.5	4.7	2.3	0.5	0.0							12.0	4th
5th									0.1	0.9	3.6	4.5	2.0	0.3	0.0								11.4	5th
6th								0.1	0.9	3.6	4.2	1.7	0.3	0.0									10.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	0.9	3.2	3.6	1.5	0.1	0.0										9.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	1.0	2.8	3.0	1.2	0.1	0.0											8.3	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	1.1	2.4	2.1	0.8	0.1													6.8	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.5	1.1	0.4	0.0														4.7	10th
11th	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0															2.1	11th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	1.9	3.1	4.7	6.3	8.0	9.4	10.3	10.6	10.2	9.4	8.0	6.5	4.7	3.0	1.6	0.6	0.2			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
19-1	100.0%	0.6		0.6	0.0
18-2	95.7%	1.5		1.4	0.1
17-3	80.4%	2.4		1.8	0.6	0.0
16-4	57.2%	2.7		1.6	0.9	0.1	0.0
15-5	29.6%	1.9		0.8	0.9	0.3	0.0
14-6	9.6%	0.8		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.8%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0							0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	10.2%	10.2		6.5	2.9	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.2%		66.6%	55.3%	11.3%	10.7				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		25.2%
19-1	0.6%		53.3%	50.5%	2.8%	11.5				0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.3		5.7%
18-2	1.6%		44.8%	43.5%	1.3%	12.3							0.0				0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.9		2.2%
17-3	3.0%		39.3%	39.2%	0.1%	12.8											0.0	0.0	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.0		1.8		0.1%
16-4	4.7%		31.6%	31.6%		13.3												0.0	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	3.2
15-5	6.5%		23.8%	23.8%		13.7												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	5.0
14-6	8.0%		17.5%	17.5%		14.1													0.1	0.3	0.6	0.4	0.1	6.6
13-7	9.4%		10.6%	10.6%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	8.4
12-8	10.2%		6.6%	6.6%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	9.6
11-9	10.6%		3.1%	3.1%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	10.3
10-10	10.3%		1.7%	1.7%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	10.1
9-11	9.4%		0.9%	0.9%		15.8																0.0	0.1	9.3
8-12	8.0%		0.3%	0.3%		15.8																0.0	0.0	7.9
7-13	6.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	6.3
6-14	4.7%																							4.7
5-15	3.1%																							3.1
4-16	1.9%																							1.9
3-17	1.0%																							1.0
2-18	0.5%																							0.5
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		9.0%	9.0%	0.1%	13.6				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	1.3	2.4	2.7	1.7	0.6	91.0		0.1%