IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.0	#233
Expected Predictive Rating	-0.2	#172

Pace	73.7	#64
Improvement	-3.3	#320

Offense
Total Offense	-7.2	#341

First Shot	-4.1	#296
After Offensive Rebound	-3.1	#335

Layup/Dunks	-5.0	#340
2 Pt Jumpshots	+2.8	#43
3 Pt Jumpshots	-4.7	#319
Freethrows	+2.8	#37

Improvement	-3.2	#334

Defense
Total Defense	+3.2	#90

First Shot	+3.8	#62
After Offensive Rebounds	-0.6	#233

Layups/Dunks	+1.5	#116
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.6	#142
3 Pt Jumpshots	+2.7	#67
Freethrows	-1.0	#260

Improvement	-0.1	#184

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.6%	0.7%	0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.2	14.2	13.5

.500 or above	21.2%	26.0%	9.6%
.500 or above in Conference	32.6%	39.3%	16.5%
Conference Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	2.0%	1.1%	4.1%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	0.5%	0.7%	0.2%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 70.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 5	1 - 7
Quad 3	3 - 6	4 - 14
Quad 4	9 - 3	13 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2024	90	@ Washington	L	73-79	12%	0 - 1			+3.0	-5.5	+9.5
Nov 07, 2024	236	@ Idaho	W	79-75	40%	1 - 1			+2.7	+0.0	+2.6
Nov 17, 2024	95	@ Stanford	L	65-79	13%	1 - 2			-5.8	-7.2	+1.9
Nov 20, 2024	92	@ Grand Canyon	W	75-68	13%	2 - 2			+15.4	+3.6	+11.4
Nov 25, 2024	165	Norfolk St.	L	55-76	47%	2 - 3			-24.2	-19.9	-4.4
Nov 30, 2024	86	@ Oregon St.	L	57-90	11%	2 - 4			-23.6	-7.9	-17.9
Dec 05, 2024	277	Cal Poly	W	77-66	70%	3 - 4	1 - 0		+1.6	-12.6	+12.7
Dec 07, 2024	139	UC Santa Barbara	W	71-60	42%	4 - 4	2 - 0		+9.0	+0.9	+8.8
Dec 14, 2024	338	@ Sacramento St.	W	69-62	65%	5 - 4			-0.8	-2.7	+2.2
Dec 18, 2024	236	Idaho	W	74-66	63%	6 - 4			+0.6	-5.9	+6.5
Dec 21, 2024	182	@ Pepperdine	L	46-85	28%	6 - 5			-37.1	-25.6	-11.5
Jan 02, 2025	238	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	64-75	40%	6 - 6	2 - 1		-12.3	-5.1	-8.0
Jan 04, 2025	142	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	61-73	22%	6 - 7	2 - 2		-7.9	-11.9	+4.7
Jan 09, 2025	319	Cal St. Fullerton	W	63-53	79%	7 - 7	3 - 2		-2.4	-15.2	+12.7
Jan 11, 2025	286	Long Beach St.	W	70-64	71%
Jan 16, 2025	277	@ Cal Poly	L	78-79	48%
Jan 18, 2025	139	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	64-72	22%
Jan 23, 2025	164	Hawaii	L	65-66	46%
Jan 30, 2025	190	@ UC Riverside	L	66-72	29%
Feb 01, 2025	63	@ UC Irvine	L	60-75	8%
Feb 06, 2025	286	@ Long Beach St.	L	67-68	49%
Feb 08, 2025	319	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	67-65	59%
Feb 13, 2025	190	UC Riverside	W	69-68	52%
Feb 15, 2025	67	@ UC San Diego	L	61-76	8%
Feb 20, 2025	238	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	68-65	61%
Feb 22, 2025	142	Cal St. Northridge	L	72-74	42%
Mar 02, 2025	164	@ Hawaii	L	62-69	26%
Mar 06, 2025	63	UC Irvine	L	63-72	20%
Mar 08, 2025	67	UC San Diego	L	64-73	20%
Projected Record						13 - 16	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.1	1st
2nd													0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0						0.6	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.8	1.8	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0						4.7	3rd
4th										0.2	1.6	3.9	2.6	0.6	0.1								9.0	4th
5th									0.2	2.2	6.1	4.2	0.7	0.0									13.5	5th
6th								0.2	2.5	8.0	5.0	1.1	0.0										16.8	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	3.3	8.7	6.7	1.1	0.0											20.2	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	2.6	7.6	6.0	1.2	0.1												17.7	8th
9th					0.3	1.9	5.2	4.0	0.7	0.0													12.1	9th
10th				0.1	0.9	2.0	1.5	0.2	0.0														4.7	10th
11th				0.1	0.4	0.1	0.0																0.6	11th

Total				0.2	1.5	4.2	9.6	15.3	18.2	18.3	14.0	10.0	5.3	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0						Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-4	35.7%	0.0			0.0
15-5	12.9%	0.0		0.0	0.0
14-6	2.6%	0.0			0.0			0.0
13-7	0.0%
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0			0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3	0.0%																							0.0
16-4	0.0%																		0.0					0.0
15-5	0.3%		7.5%	7.5%		13.0														0.0				0.3
14-6	0.8%		6.3%	6.3%		13.8														0.0	0.0			0.7
13-7	2.3%		5.5%	5.5%		13.6													0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		2.1
12-8	5.3%		2.5%	2.5%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		5.1
11-9	10.0%		0.6%	0.6%		14.1														0.0	0.0	0.0		10.0
10-10	14.0%		0.7%	0.7%		14.6															0.0	0.1		13.9
9-11	18.3%		0.3%	0.3%		15.4																0.0	0.0	18.2
8-12	18.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	18.2
7-13	15.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	15.3
6-14	9.6%																							9.6
5-15	4.2%																							4.2
4-16	1.5%																							1.5
3-17	0.2%																							0.2
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%		0.6%	0.6%	0.0%	14.2													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	99.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%