UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#216
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#155
Pace75.3#40
Improvement-2.3#320

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#288
First Shot-2.0#237
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#298
Layup/Dunks-4.4#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#272
Freethrows+4.0#25
Improvement-1.0#275

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#114
First Shot+2.5#102
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#235
Layups/Dunks-0.4#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#9
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#136
Freethrows-1.8#286
Improvement-1.3#301
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.4% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.9
.500 or above 32.8% 40.7% 18.7%
.500 or above in Conference 42.7% 51.8% 26.6%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.2% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 7.8% 4.5% 13.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round1.9% 2.4% 1.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 63.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 34 - 65 - 13
Quad 48 - 413 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 76   @ Washington L 73-79 12%     0 - 1 +4.2 -4.5 +9.6
  Nov 07, 2024 288   @ Idaho W 79-75 54%     1 - 1 +0.4 -0.6 +0.8
  Nov 17, 2024 99   @ Stanford L 65-79 15%     1 - 2 -5.6 -6.9 +1.8
  Nov 20, 2024 95   @ Grand Canyon W 75-68 15%     2 - 2 +15.6 +1.6 +13.5
  Nov 25, 2024 158   Norfolk St. L 55-76 51%     2 - 3 -23.8 -19.4 -4.5
  Nov 30, 2024 74   @ Oregon St. L 57-90 12%     2 - 4 -22.6 -6.8 -18.1
  Dec 05, 2024 225   Cal Poly W 81-77 64%    
  Dec 07, 2024 115   UC Santa Barbara L 71-73 41%    
  Dec 14, 2024 307   @ Sacramento St. W 67-65 58%    
  Dec 18, 2024 288   Idaho W 75-68 74%    
  Dec 21, 2024 257   @ Pepperdine L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 02, 2025 242   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 146   @ Cal St. Northridge L 74-80 28%    
  Jan 09, 2025 261   Cal St. Fullerton W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 11, 2025 324   Long Beach St. W 73-63 82%    
  Jan 16, 2025 225   @ Cal Poly L 78-80 42%    
  Jan 18, 2025 115   @ UC Santa Barbara L 68-76 23%    
  Jan 23, 2025 175   Hawaii W 70-69 55%    
  Jan 30, 2025 200   @ UC Riverside L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 54   @ UC Irvine L 62-77 9%    
  Feb 06, 2025 324   @ Long Beach St. W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 261   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 68-67 50%    
  Feb 13, 2025 200   UC Riverside W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 107   @ UC San Diego L 65-74 21%    
  Feb 20, 2025 242   Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 146   Cal St. Northridge L 76-77 49%    
  Mar 02, 2025 175   @ Hawaii L 67-72 33%    
  Mar 06, 2025 54   UC Irvine L 65-74 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 107   UC San Diego L 68-71 39%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.2 3.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.5 4.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.4 4.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 5.4 4.4 1.2 0.1 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.0 4.4 1.0 0.1 13.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.4 3.3 0.7 0.0 11.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 8.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.3 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.1 8.9 10.8 12.4 12.6 11.6 10.7 7.8 5.6 3.5 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 96.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 80.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 53.0% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 18.1% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 15.3% 15.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 16.3% 16.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.1% 19.7% 19.7% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
15-5 1.9% 13.3% 13.3% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
14-6 3.5% 8.6% 8.6% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.2
13-7 5.6% 5.9% 5.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.3
12-8 7.8% 3.6% 3.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.5
11-9 10.7% 2.0% 2.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.5
10-10 11.6% 1.1% 1.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.5
9-11 12.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.5
8-12 12.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 12.4
7-13 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.8
6-14 8.9% 8.9
5-15 6.1% 6.1
4-16 3.7% 3.7
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 98.1 0.0%