Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#242
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#219
Pace83.1#2
Improvement-0.1#193

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#211
First Shot-2.1#234
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#133
Layup/Dunks-0.5#199
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#67
Freethrows-1.9#289
Improvement-1.2#242

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#266
First Shot-2.3#244
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#266
Layups/Dunks-1.5#240
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#236
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#226
Freethrows+0.3#160
Improvement+1.1#130
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 41.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 32 - 83 - 17
Quad 49 - 212 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 69   @ San Francisco L 78-86 9%     0 - 1 +2.7 +0.8 +3.0
  Nov 07, 2024 112   @ California L 73-91 17%     0 - 2 -12.2 -4.6 -6.2
  Nov 14, 2024 165   Seattle W 75-71 44%     1 - 2 +1.2 -1.6 +2.7
  Nov 17, 2024 265   @ Eastern Washington W 82-78 44%     2 - 2 +1.1 -1.5 +2.1
  Nov 20, 2024 65   @ Arizona St. L 89-93 8%     2 - 3 +6.9 +12.7 -5.3
  Nov 23, 2024 30   @ St. Mary's L 66-80 3%     2 - 4 +3.2 +2.0 +1.5
  Nov 26, 2024 327   Grambling St. W 82-79 78%     3 - 4 -9.7 +5.5 -15.2
  Nov 30, 2024 88   @ Stanford W 97-90 11%     4 - 4 +15.9 +18.9 -3.6
  Dec 05, 2024 222   @ UC Davis L 66-77 36%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -11.7 -11.7 +1.6
  Dec 07, 2024 114   Cal St. Northridge L 91-102 32%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -10.7 +4.0 -13.0
  Dec 14, 2024 163   @ San Jose St. L 100-107 OT 26%     4 - 7 -4.6 +5.2 -8.3
  Dec 17, 2024 315   Denver W 95-94 OT 76%     5 - 7 -10.7 +1.9 -12.7
  Dec 21, 2024 187   @ Nebraska Omaha L 82-86 30%     5 - 8 -3.0 +2.9 -5.8
  Jan 02, 2025 85   UC Irvine L 89-98 OT 21%     5 - 9 0 - 3 -4.8 +2.4 -5.2
  Jan 04, 2025 207   @ Hawaii L 55-68 33%     5 - 10 0 - 4 -13.0 -11.4 -2.8
  Jan 09, 2025 54   @ UC San Diego L 68-95 6%     5 - 11 0 - 5 -13.9 +2.9 -17.2
  Jan 11, 2025 145   UC Santa Barbara L 72-75 39%     5 - 12 0 - 6 -4.6 +2.7 -7.6
  Jan 16, 2025 222   UC Davis L 54-65 55%     5 - 13 0 - 7 -16.8 -9.3 -9.0
  Jan 18, 2025 85   @ UC Irvine L 71-101 11%     5 - 14 0 - 8 -20.7 -1.1 -16.1
  Jan 25, 2025 304   Long Beach St. W 78-69 73%     6 - 14 1 - 8 -1.9 -3.5 +1.4
  Jan 30, 2025 240   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 90-81 40%     7 - 14 2 - 8 +7.2 +9.4 -2.7
  Feb 01, 2025 149   @ UC Riverside L 62-80 23%     7 - 15 2 - 9 -14.8 -7.6 -7.9
  Feb 06, 2025 207   Hawaii W 79-63 53%     8 - 15 3 - 9 +10.9 +8.7 +3.0
  Feb 13, 2025 342   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 98-83 69%     9 - 15 4 - 9 +5.5 +4.7 -1.9
  Feb 15, 2025 114   @ Cal St. Northridge L 85-89 18%     9 - 16 4 - 10 +1.4 -0.2 +2.3
  Feb 20, 2025 54   UC San Diego L 67-81 13%     9 - 17 4 - 11 -6.0 -1.8 -4.2
  Feb 22, 2025 149   UC Riverside L 79-82 42%    
  Feb 27, 2025 145   @ UC Santa Barbara L 75-83 22%    
  Mar 01, 2025 240   Cal St. Bakersfield W 82-79 61%    
  Mar 06, 2025 342   Cal St. Fullerton W 84-74 84%    
  Mar 08, 2025 304   @ Long Beach St. W 79-78 55%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 1.1 1.1 6th
7th 4.6 11.4 1.9 17.9 7th
8th 5.7 20.0 6.5 0.1 32.3 8th
9th 0.6 10.3 25.1 9.2 0.2 45.4 9th
10th 1.2 1.9 0.2 3.3 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.8 12.2 31.0 33.8 18.1 3.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 3.1
8-12 18.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.0
7-13 33.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 33.8
6-14 31.0% 31.0
5-15 12.2% 12.2
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 1.8%