San Francisco
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#75
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#64
Pace67.7#210
Improvement-4.0#335

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#78
First Shot+4.6#63
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#234
Layup/Dunks-2.3#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#123
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#37
Freethrows+0.7#133
Improvement+0.5#152

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#84
First Shot+3.0#86
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#146
Layups/Dunks-1.0#211
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#39
Freethrows+0.8#121
Improvement-4.4#355
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 14.6% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 6.2% 1.5%
Average Seed 10.8 10.5 11.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.9% 98.0%
Conference Champion 5.9% 16.8% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 3.9% 1.3%
First Round6.6% 12.7% 4.9%
Second Round2.0% 3.9% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 21.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 7
Quad 23 - 35 - 10
Quad 35 - 110 - 10
Quad 411 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 286   Cal Poly W 86-78 94%     1 - 0 -1.9 -4.9 +1.9
  Nov 09, 2024 57   Boise St. W 84-73 51%     2 - 0 +18.0 +15.2 +3.1
  Nov 13, 2024 293   Long Beach St. W 84-54 94%     3 - 0 +19.6 +9.9 +11.6
  Nov 16, 2024 357   Chicago St. W 82-37 98%     4 - 0 +28.1 +1.1 +25.2
  Nov 21, 2024 43   Memphis L 64-68 34%     4 - 1 +7.5 -3.3 +10.8
  Nov 25, 2024 30   Clemson L 55-70 29%     4 - 2 -1.9 -4.1 +0.2
  Nov 26, 2024 221   Fordham W 85-64 84%     5 - 2 +17.7 +19.8 -0.1
  Dec 01, 2024 359   Mercyhurst W 87-59 98%     6 - 2 +10.6 +11.8 +0.7
  Dec 05, 2024 102   Saint Louis W 78-61 72%     7 - 2 +18.3 +4.5 +13.9
  Dec 15, 2024 136   Loyola Chicago W 76-66 71%     8 - 2 +11.7 -0.5 +11.6
  Dec 18, 2024 73   @ Bradley L 64-66 39%     8 - 3 +8.4 -5.7 +14.1
  Dec 21, 2024 226   Montana W 71-67 90%     9 - 3 -2.4 +0.8 -2.8
  Dec 28, 2024 152   Loyola Marymount W 70-55 81%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +13.1 +1.6 +12.3
  Dec 30, 2024 67   Santa Clara W 97-94 OT 57%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +8.6 +14.3 -6.0
  Jan 02, 2025 302   @ Pacific W 89-81 88%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +2.9 +21.0 -17.3
  Jan 04, 2025 85   @ Washington St. L 82-91 42%     12 - 4 3 - 1 +0.5 +10.1 -9.1
  Jan 09, 2025 308   Portland W 81-72 95%     13 - 4 4 - 1 -2.0 +7.1 -8.5
  Jan 11, 2025 67   @ Santa Clara L 54-77 36%     13 - 5 4 - 2 -11.9 -14.2 +2.2
  Jan 16, 2025 203   @ Pepperdine W 80-63 74%     14 - 5 5 - 2 +17.6 +9.7 +8.3
  Jan 18, 2025 70   Oregon St. W 81-70 59%     15 - 5 6 - 2 +16.1 +15.0 +1.9
  Jan 23, 2025 35   @ St. Mary's L 63-71 22%    
  Jan 25, 2025 290   San Diego W 81-63 95%    
  Feb 01, 2025 85   Washington St. W 77-74 64%    
  Feb 06, 2025 35   St. Mary's L 65-68 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 152   @ Loyola Marymount W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 13, 2025 14   @ Gonzaga L 73-85 13%    
  Feb 15, 2025 290   @ San Diego W 78-66 86%    
  Feb 20, 2025 302   Pacific W 82-64 95%    
  Feb 27, 2025 70   @ Oregon St. L 69-72 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 14   Gonzaga L 75-82 28%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.1 3.4 1.3 0.2 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 8.4 2.4 0.1 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 13.5 5.5 0.1 21.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 13.5 8.9 0.3 24.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 8.5 9.7 0.6 19.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.4 1.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.9 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 1.5 6.4 17.7 26.7 25.1 15.2 5.8 1.3 0.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-3 96.3% 1.3    0.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 57.9% 3.4    0.8 1.8 0.7 0.0
13-5 6.9% 1.1    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 1.9 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
15-3 1.3% 51.5% 19.4% 32.1% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 39.8%
14-4 5.8% 32.0% 17.6% 14.3% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.1 3.9 17.4%
13-5 15.2% 13.5% 9.7% 3.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.3 13.2 4.1%
12-6 25.1% 6.9% 5.6% 1.3% 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.3 23.3 1.4%
11-7 26.7% 3.1% 2.7% 0.4% 11.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 25.9 0.4%
10-8 17.7% 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 17.4 0.1%
9-9 6.4% 1.7% 1.7% 11.6 0.0 0.1 6.3
8-10 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 12.0 0.0 1.5
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.7% 5.4% 2.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 4.9 1.1 0.0 92.3 2.5%