San Francisco
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#69
Expected Predictive Rating+10.1#57
Pace68.3#178
Improvement-1.9#275

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#91
First Shot+3.9#77
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#237
Layup/Dunks-2.5#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#130
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#45
Freethrows+0.5#144
Improvement-1.3#249

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#57
First Shot+4.4#58
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#122
Layups/Dunks-0.3#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#33
Freethrows+1.1#107
Improvement-0.6#217
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.5% 12.2% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.1% 7.2% 1.7%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.6% 6.0% 1.6%
First Round6.2% 8.4% 4.4%
Second Round1.5% 2.1% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 44.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 6
Quad 23 - 35 - 9
Quad 36 - 011 - 9
Quad 412 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 242   Cal Poly W 86-78 91%     1 - 0 +1.0 -3.1 +3.0
  Nov 09, 2024 49   Boise St. W 84-73 49%     2 - 0 +19.4 +16.7 +2.9
  Nov 13, 2024 304   Long Beach St. W 84-54 95%     3 - 0 +19.1 +9.7 +11.2
  Nov 16, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 82-37 98%     4 - 0 +26.7 -0.6 +25.5
  Nov 21, 2024 47   Memphis L 64-68 48%     4 - 1 +4.6 -4.1 +8.6
  Nov 25, 2024 23   Clemson L 55-70 24%     4 - 2 +0.6 -2.9 +1.4
  Nov 26, 2024 204   Fordham W 85-64 84%     5 - 2 +18.6 +18.6 +2.0
  Dec 01, 2024 350   Mercyhurst W 87-59 98%     6 - 2 +12.6 +12.6 +1.9
  Dec 05, 2024 109   Saint Louis W 78-61 76%     7 - 2 +17.8 +5.9 +12.0
  Dec 15, 2024 110   Loyola Chicago W 76-66 68%     8 - 2 +13.4 +1.5 +11.2
  Dec 18, 2024 94   @ Bradley L 64-66 52%     8 - 3 +5.7 -7.7 +13.5
  Dec 21, 2024 182   Montana W 71-67 86%     9 - 3 +0.3 +0.4 +0.3
  Dec 28, 2024 169   Loyola Marymount W 70-55 85%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +12.1 +1.8 +11.1
  Dec 30, 2024 60   Santa Clara W 97-94 OT 54%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +10.2 +15.5 -5.7
  Jan 02, 2025 277   @ Pacific W 89-81 87%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +4.1 +22.6 -17.8
  Jan 04, 2025 107   @ Washington St. L 82-91 58%     12 - 4 3 - 1 -2.9 +7.1 -9.5
  Jan 09, 2025 284   Portland W 81-72 94%     13 - 4 4 - 1 -0.5 +6.7 -6.5
  Jan 11, 2025 60   @ Santa Clara L 54-77 34%     13 - 5 4 - 2 -10.7 -13.2 +2.3
  Jan 16, 2025 226   @ Pepperdine W 80-63 81%     14 - 5 5 - 2 +16.0 +8.1 +8.3
  Jan 18, 2025 87   Oregon St. W 81-70 66%     15 - 5 6 - 2 +14.9 +12.8 +2.8
  Jan 23, 2025 30   @ St. Mary's L 51-71 19%     15 - 6 6 - 3 -2.8 -4.8 -0.7
  Jan 25, 2025 314   San Diego W 81-69 96%     16 - 6 7 - 3 +0.3 +3.6 -3.3
  Feb 01, 2025 107   Washington St. W 75-51 75%     17 - 6 8 - 3 +25.0 +4.2 +21.7
  Feb 06, 2025 30   St. Mary's W 65-64 35%     18 - 6 9 - 3 +13.1 +5.1 +8.1
  Feb 08, 2025 169   @ Loyola Marymount W 72-66 72%     19 - 6 10 - 3 +8.2 +5.4 +3.0
  Feb 13, 2025 11   @ Gonzaga L 77-88 12%     19 - 7 10 - 4 +9.9 +10.9 -0.8
  Feb 15, 2025 314   @ San Diego W 84-61 91%     20 - 7 11 - 4 +16.4 +4.5 +10.6
  Feb 20, 2025 277   Pacific W 71-58 94%     21 - 7 12 - 4 +4.0 -6.6 +10.6
  Feb 26, 2025 87   @ Oregon St. L 70-71 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 11   Gonzaga L 73-81 25%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 9.2 11.5 20.7 2nd
3rd 34.9 37.1 72.0 3rd
4th 7.2 7.2 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 42.1 46.3 11.6 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 11.6% 26.5% 10.1% 16.5% 10.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 0.1 8.6 18.3%
13-5 46.3% 8.3% 4.5% 3.8% 11.0 0.1 0.4 2.7 0.7 42.5 4.0%
12-6 42.1% 3.7% 3.1% 0.6% 11.2 0.1 1.1 0.4 40.5 0.6%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.5% 4.6% 4.0% 10.9 0.0 0.3 1.2 5.8 1.2 91.5 4.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 10.1 1.7 22.2 46.2 28.2 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1% 29.2% 10.8 0.5 5.3 22.0 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.4% 15.6% 11.0 1.4 13.2 1.0
Lose Out 13.3% 0.2% 11.0 0.2