San Francisco
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#59
Expected Predictive Rating+13.9#27
Pace69.1#184
Improvement+1.0#71

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#61
First Shot+6.6#29
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#294
Layup/Dunks+1.7#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#50
Freethrows+0.3#172
Improvement-0.4#247

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#60
First Shot+0.7#156
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#23
Layups/Dunks-2.1#242
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#106
Freethrows+1.0#132
Improvement+1.4#37
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 2.4% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 3.6% 6.3% 1.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.4% 37.8% 19.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.6% 32.5% 15.1%
Average Seed 9.3 8.9 9.7
.500 or above 97.2% 99.4% 95.9%
.500 or above in Conference 90.5% 93.9% 88.5%
Conference Champion 4.8% 6.3% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four7.7% 9.4% 6.6%
First Round22.8% 33.4% 16.2%
Second Round11.4% 17.4% 7.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.6% 5.8% 2.2%
Elite Eight1.3% 2.2% 0.8%
Final Four0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Neutral) - 38.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 24 - 36 - 7
Quad 36 - 211 - 9
Quad 410 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 294   Cal Poly W 86-78 95%     1 - 0 -2.1 -1.4 -1.8
  Nov 09, 2024 43   Boise St. W 84-73 54%     2 - 0 +19.0 +16.6 +2.7
  Nov 13, 2024 259   Long Beach St. W 84-54 93%     3 - 0 +21.9 +11.6 +12.2
  Nov 16, 2024 349   Chicago St. W 82-37 98%     4 - 0 +29.1 +0.3 +26.9
  Nov 21, 2024 33   Memphis L 75-78 38%    
  Nov 25, 2024 49   Clemson L 71-72 48%    
  Dec 01, 2024 359   Mercyhurst W 79-53 99%    
  Dec 05, 2024 101   Saint Louis W 80-73 74%    
  Dec 15, 2024 105   Loyola Chicago W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 18, 2024 93   @ Bradley W 71-70 51%    
  Dec 21, 2024 211   Montana W 79-65 90%    
  Dec 28, 2024 152   Loyola Marymount W 75-63 85%    
  Dec 30, 2024 99   Santa Clara W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 02, 2025 291   @ Pacific W 79-66 87%    
  Jan 04, 2025 80   @ Washington St. L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 09, 2025 289   Portland W 81-62 95%    
  Jan 11, 2025 99   @ Santa Clara W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 16, 2025 238   @ Pepperdine W 78-68 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 98   Oregon St. W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 23, 2025 44   @ St. Mary's L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 25, 2025 298   San Diego W 83-64 96%    
  Feb 01, 2025 80   Washington St. W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 06, 2025 44   St. Mary's W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 152   @ Loyola Marymount W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 13, 2025 1   @ Gonzaga L 70-86 8%    
  Feb 15, 2025 298   @ San Diego W 80-67 88%    
  Feb 20, 2025 291   Pacific W 82-63 95%    
  Feb 27, 2025 98   @ Oregon St. W 69-68 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 1   Gonzaga L 73-83 20%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.1 4.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 7.2 9.1 6.0 1.5 26.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.9 9.2 7.6 2.4 0.2 23.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.8 4.5 0.8 0.0 17.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.8 2.9 0.3 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.6 1.8 0.2 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.9 0.8 0.1 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 5.0 7.8 11.9 15.0 16.4 15.6 12.0 7.6 3.2 1.0 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 1.0    0.8 0.2
16-2 53.9% 1.7    0.8 0.9 0.0
15-3 18.7% 1.4    0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 4.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.1 2.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 45.3% 54.7% 2.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.0% 98.7% 33.5% 65.2% 4.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1%
16-2 3.2% 91.8% 23.2% 68.7% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 89.4%
15-3 7.6% 78.0% 15.9% 62.1% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 1.7 73.9%
14-4 12.0% 56.8% 11.3% 45.5% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.3 0.2 5.2 51.3%
13-5 15.6% 33.0% 6.8% 26.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 0.4 10.5 28.2%
12-6 16.4% 17.4% 4.2% 13.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 0.3 13.5 13.7%
11-7 15.0% 7.7% 2.7% 5.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.2 13.8 5.2%
10-8 11.9% 3.0% 1.5% 1.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.6 1.5%
9-9 7.8% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 11.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.5%
8-10 5.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.1%
7-11 2.6% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 2.6
6-12 1.2% 1.2
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 26.4% 6.1% 20.3% 9.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.2 3.4 5.1 9.0 1.5 0.0 73.6 21.6%