Chicago St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.9#350
Expected Predictive Rating-13.6#331
Pace76.1#44
Improvement-2.0#341

Offense
Total Offense-8.8#359
First Shot-5.0#308
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#348
Layup/Dunks-2.5#266
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#107
Freethrows-3.8#335
Improvement-2.1#356

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#305
First Shot-0.9#211
After Offensive Rebounds-3.2#328
Layups/Dunks-0.9#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#294
Freethrows-1.0#243
Improvement+0.1#177
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 7.3% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.4% 5.3% 1.0%
.500 or above in Conference 39.0% 53.7% 37.6%
Conference Champion 4.0% 7.1% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 19.8% 11.7% 20.5%
First Four4.3% 7.1% 4.1%
First Round1.6% 2.8% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 8.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 50 - 12
Quad 48 - 128 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 104   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-79 4%     0 - 1 +0.4 -0.3 +1.1
  Nov 09, 2024 192   Youngstown St. L 60-80 21%     0 - 2 -24.4 -16.8 -6.8
  Nov 12, 2024 29   @ Texas L 58-105 1%     0 - 3 -31.2 -13.0 -13.8
  Nov 16, 2024 57   @ San Francisco L 37-82 2%     0 - 4 -32.9 -31.2 +0.1
  Nov 19, 2024 199   Eastern Kentucky L 66-86 22%     0 - 5 -24.9 -16.2 -7.2
  Nov 22, 2024 191   @ Indiana St. L 73-88 9%    
  Nov 25, 2024 226   Radford L 68-78 18%    
  Nov 30, 2024 37   @ Wisconsin L 61-88 1%    
  Dec 02, 2024 168   @ St. Thomas L 65-80 8%    
  Dec 08, 2024 100   @ Saint Louis L 67-88 3%    
  Dec 15, 2024 252   @ Mercer L 68-79 15%    
  Dec 19, 2024 108   @ Grand Canyon L 65-85 4%    
  Dec 21, 2024 194   @ Cal St. Northridge L 70-84 10%    
  Dec 29, 2024 31   @ Illinois L 65-94 1%    
  Jan 03, 2025 281   @ Wagner L 57-67 19%    
  Jan 05, 2025 338   @ LIU Brooklyn L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 12, 2025 343   Stonehill W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 337   Le Moyne W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 20, 2025 347   Fairleigh Dickinson W 82-79 59%    
  Jan 24, 2025 343   @ Stonehill L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 26, 2025 254   @ Central Connecticut St. L 64-75 17%    
  Feb 01, 2025 338   LIU Brooklyn W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 06, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 342   St. Francis (PA) W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 13, 2025 347   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 79-82 38%    
  Feb 15, 2025 337   @ Le Moyne L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 20, 2025 254   Central Connecticut St. L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 22, 2025 281   Wagner L 60-64 37%    
  Feb 27, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst L 66-68 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 342   @ St. Francis (PA) L 70-74 37%    
Projected Record 7 - 23 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.7 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.2 3.4 1.0 0.1 10.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.4 4.0 0.9 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.7 4.9 0.9 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.7 5.5 1.0 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.5 5.7 1.2 0.0 14.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.2 4.8 1.3 0.0 13.7 8th
9th 0.3 1.2 2.9 4.0 3.1 0.9 0.0 12.4 9th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.3 6.2 9.8 12.4 14.1 13.9 12.8 10.1 7.2 4.7 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 95.8% 0.4    0.4 0.0
13-3 79.8% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
12-4 50.4% 1.3    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-5 20.6% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
10-6 4.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 28.3% 28.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.4% 29.2% 29.2% 16.0 0.1 0.3
13-3 1.1% 22.5% 22.5% 16.0 0.2 0.8
12-4 2.5% 16.8% 16.8% 16.0 0.4 2.1
11-5 4.7% 13.1% 13.1% 16.0 0.6 4.1
10-6 7.2% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.6 6.6
9-7 10.1% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.7 9.4
8-8 12.8% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.6 12.2
7-9 13.9% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.4 13.4
6-10 14.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.4 13.7
5-11 12.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 12.3
4-12 9.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.8
3-13 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.2
2-14 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.3
1-15 1.2% 1.2
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.4 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%