Wagner
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.7#347
Expected Predictive Rating-11.4#333
Pace55.9#361
Improvement-0.4#210

Offense
Total Offense-9.2#357
First Shot-8.5#357
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#235
Layup/Dunks-7.9#360
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#243
Freethrows-1.9#293
Improvement+2.2#80

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#277
First Shot-5.6#339
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#35
Layups/Dunks-0.8#205
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#308
Freethrows-2.0#306
Improvement-2.6#309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.3% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.4% 2.4% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 3.7% 7.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.9% 0.3% 37.9%
First Four2.5% 3.3% 1.6%
First Round0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Away) - 50.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 21 - 5
Quad 49 - 1110 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 63   @ Rutgers L 52-75 2%     0 - 1 -12.1 -15.2 +2.6
  Nov 13, 2024 14   @ St. John's L 45-66 1%     0 - 2 -0.6 -9.3 +6.9
  Nov 16, 2024 167   @ Seton Hall L 28-54 9%     0 - 3 -23.8 -31.9 -0.1
  Nov 19, 2024 300   @ Boston University W 60-58 24%     1 - 3 -3.3 -4.6 +1.6
  Nov 26, 2024 73   @ Georgetown L 41-66 3%     1 - 4 -14.7 -17.6 -1.0
  Dec 04, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 65-52 79%     2 - 4 -8.0 +1.5 -6.5
  Dec 08, 2024 361   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 63-61 62%     3 - 4 -13.9 -6.5 -7.1
  Dec 14, 2024 346   @ NJIT W 50-43 40%     4 - 4 -3.1 -20.0 +17.6
  Dec 18, 2024 263   Manhattan L 66-80 33%     4 - 5 -22.0 -6.7 -16.8
  Jan 03, 2025 360   Chicago St. L 52-64 71%     4 - 6 0 - 1 -30.3 -18.5 -13.8
  Jan 05, 2025 318   Fairleigh Dickinson L 59-71 47%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -23.8 -18.0 -5.8
  Jan 10, 2025 197   @ Central Connecticut St. W 62-57 11%     5 - 7 1 - 2 +5.5 +2.7 +3.6
  Jan 18, 2025 350   Mercyhurst L 65-69 61%     5 - 8 1 - 3 -19.4 -6.1 -13.9
  Jan 20, 2025 331   St. Francis (PA) W 70-68 2OT 52%     6 - 8 2 - 3 -11.1 -11.4 +0.3
  Jan 24, 2025 350   @ Mercyhurst L 66-71 41%     6 - 9 2 - 4 -15.3 +0.4 -16.6
  Jan 26, 2025 331   @ St. Francis (PA) W 68-66 33%     7 - 9 3 - 4 -6.0 +1.0 -6.7
  Jan 30, 2025 324   @ Stonehill L 61-73 30%     7 - 10 3 - 5 -19.2 -5.4 -15.9
  Feb 01, 2025 357   Le Moyne W 73-61 64%     8 - 10 4 - 5 -4.4 +0.4 -3.1
  Feb 06, 2025 323   LIU Brooklyn L 47-60 47%     8 - 11 4 - 6 -25.0 -13.2 -15.5
  Feb 08, 2025 318   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 58-69 28%     8 - 12 4 - 7 -17.7 -12.4 -6.0
  Feb 13, 2025 357   @ Le Moyne L 68-72 OT 45%     8 - 13 4 - 8 -15.3 -13.0 -2.2
  Feb 20, 2025 324   Stonehill W 63-57 48%     9 - 13 5 - 8 -6.3 -2.4 -2.5
  Feb 22, 2025 360   @ Chicago St. W 62-61 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 323   @ LIU Brooklyn L 54-60 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 197   Central Connecticut St. L 55-63 24%    
Projected Record 10 - 15 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.4 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 1.6 4th
5th 0.6 8.8 1.8 11.2 5th
6th 8.7 11.6 0.0 20.3 6th
7th 13.3 35.0 2.8 51.0 7th
8th 12.9 0.7 13.5 8th
9th 1.9 0.0 1.9 9th
Total 28.1 44.9 23.2 3.7 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 3.7% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.2 3.6
7-9 23.2% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.9 22.3
6-10 44.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 1.2 43.7
5-11 28.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 27.9
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 16.0 2.5 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%
Lose Out 26.7%