Wagner
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#293
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#188
Pace57.0#363
Improvement+0.0#182

Offense
Total Offense-8.5#357
First Shot-6.0#330
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#310
Layup/Dunks-2.0#246
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#78
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#224
Freethrows-4.5#351
Improvement+0.3#160

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#119
First Shot-1.1#209
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#35
Layups/Dunks+0.6#157
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#84
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#253
Freethrows-1.1#259
Improvement-0.3#203
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.4% 22.8% 15.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 73.0% 74.8% 47.3%
.500 or above in Conference 83.3% 84.1% 71.7%
Conference Champion 31.3% 32.1% 19.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.8% 7.5%
First Four14.7% 14.8% 13.7%
First Round13.9% 14.3% 8.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 93.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 4
Quad 415 - 715 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 55   @ Rutgers L 52-75 5%     0 - 1 -10.4 -13.3 +2.4
  Nov 13, 2024 20   @ St. John's L 45-66 2%     0 - 2 -3.5 -15.5 +10.1
  Nov 16, 2024 111   @ Seton Hall L 28-54 11%     0 - 3 -19.6 -26.7 -1.1
  Nov 19, 2024 273   @ Boston University W 60-58 35%     1 - 3 -1.1 -3.3 +2.5
  Nov 26, 2024 96   @ Georgetown L 41-66 8%     1 - 4 -16.5 -21.2 +0.8
  Dec 04, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 65-49 93%    
  Dec 08, 2024 361   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 62-57 69%    
  Dec 14, 2024 350   @ NJIT W 59-57 59%    
  Dec 18, 2024 325   Manhattan W 65-60 69%    
  Jan 03, 2025 357   Chicago St. W 66-56 83%    
  Jan 05, 2025 343   Fairleigh Dickinson W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 10, 2025 262   @ Central Connecticut St. L 55-59 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 358   Mercyhurst W 62-51 83%    
  Jan 20, 2025 339   St. Francis (PA) W 65-58 73%    
  Jan 24, 2025 358   @ Mercyhurst W 59-54 65%    
  Jan 26, 2025 339   @ St. Francis (PA) W 62-61 53%    
  Jan 30, 2025 334   @ Stonehill W 59-58 50%    
  Feb 01, 2025 329   Le Moyne W 63-57 69%    
  Feb 06, 2025 341   LIU Brooklyn W 64-57 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 343   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 13, 2025 329   @ Le Moyne L 60-61 49%    
  Feb 20, 2025 334   Stonehill W 62-56 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 357   @ Chicago St. W 63-59 65%    
  Feb 27, 2025 341   @ LIU Brooklyn W 61-60 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 262   Central Connecticut St. W 58-56 55%    
Projected Record 14 - 11 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 4.4 8.1 8.5 5.8 2.8 0.7 31.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 5.8 7.9 5.0 1.5 0.2 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.3 6.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.8 1.1 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.3 2.7 3.8 0.8 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.0 1.0 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.6 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.6 7.1 9.7 12.5 13.9 14.3 13.4 10.0 5.9 2.8 0.7 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-1 100.0% 2.8    2.8 0.1
14-2 97.5% 5.8    5.3 0.4
13-3 85.2% 8.5    6.6 1.8 0.1
12-4 60.2% 8.1    4.4 3.1 0.5 0.0
11-5 30.5% 4.4    1.2 2.1 0.9 0.2
10-6 6.9% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 31.3% 31.3 21.1 7.9 1.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.7% 62.5% 62.5% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-1 2.8% 48.1% 48.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.5
14-2 5.9% 45.9% 45.9% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.4 3.2
13-3 10.0% 36.0% 36.0% 15.8 0.0 0.7 2.9 6.4
12-4 13.4% 32.3% 32.3% 16.0 0.2 4.1 9.1
11-5 14.3% 24.3% 24.3% 16.0 0.0 3.4 10.8
10-6 13.9% 18.7% 18.7% 16.0 2.6 11.3
9-7 12.5% 14.4% 14.4% 16.0 1.8 10.7
8-8 9.7% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 1.1 8.6
7-9 7.1% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.5 6.6
6-10 4.6% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.3 4.3
5-11 2.7% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 2.6
4-12 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-13 0.6% 0.6
2-14 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.7 18.4 77.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.8 39.6 43.2 17.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%