St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.9#344
Expected Predictive Rating-11.1#329
Pace67.8#204
Improvement-1.9#268

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#329
First Shot-3.3#275
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#330
Layup/Dunks-3.9#312
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#93
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#89
Freethrows-3.5#350
Improvement-0.9#235

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#336
First Shot-4.9#324
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#255
Layups/Dunks+0.5#152
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#271
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#352
Freethrows+1.6#75
Improvement-1.1#246
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 6.7% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.1% 1.9% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 35.3% 49.8% 21.2%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 18.2% 9.6% 26.5%
First Four5.4% 6.5% 4.4%
First Round2.0% 2.5% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 49 - 129 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 68   @ Dayton L 57-87 3%     0 - 1 -19.1 -13.0 -5.9
  Nov 08, 2024 30   @ Clemson L 62-88 1%     0 - 2 -10.1 -4.9 -4.5
  Nov 10, 2024 250   @ Campbell W 65-64 19%     1 - 2 -1.4 -5.7 +4.3
  Nov 12, 2024 50   @ Penn St. L 62-92 2%     1 - 3 -16.6 -13.7 +1.1
  Nov 16, 2024 266   @ Mount St. Mary's L 58-66 21%     1 - 4 -11.3 -11.6 +0.1
  Nov 23, 2024 71   @ Georgetown L 65-82 3%     1 - 5 -6.3 -0.7 -5.3
  Nov 26, 2024 297   Lehigh W 88-78 44%     2 - 5 -0.3 +11.9 -12.1
  Dec 01, 2024 205   Radford L 70-79 25%     2 - 6 -13.8 +0.8 -15.5
  Dec 14, 2024 312   @ Niagara L 66-69 28%     2 - 7 -8.9 -3.0 -6.2
  Dec 17, 2024 24   @ Maryland L 57-111 1%     2 - 8 -36.5 -7.8 -27.8
  Dec 21, 2024 216   @ Robert Morris L 77-90 15%     2 - 9 -13.6 +0.7 -13.5
  Jan 03, 2025 229   Central Connecticut St. L 59-74 30%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -21.5 -8.9 -13.9
  Jan 05, 2025 316   Stonehill L 60-64 49%     2 - 11 0 - 2 -15.5 -11.7 -4.3
  Jan 10, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 73-59 70%     3 - 11 1 - 2 -3.3 +3.1 -4.3
  Jan 12, 2025 325   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-71 33%     4 - 11 2 - 2 -3.3 -0.8 -2.4
  Jan 18, 2025 314   @ LIU Brooklyn L 51-64 29%     4 - 12 2 - 3 -19.1 -14.0 -6.9
  Jan 20, 2025 338   @ Wagner L 68-70 2OT 39%     4 - 13 2 - 4 -10.9 -6.5 -4.4
  Jan 24, 2025 314   LIU Brooklyn L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 26, 2025 338   Wagner W 62-60 59%    
  Jan 30, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst W 68-67 49%    
  Feb 06, 2025 349   Le Moyne W 75-72 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 360   @ Chicago St. W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 13, 2025 316   @ Stonehill L 67-73 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 229   @ Central Connecticut St. L 60-71 16%    
  Feb 20, 2025 349   @ Le Moyne L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 325   Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-74 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 360   Chicago St. W 71-66 70%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 5.5 2.2 0.3 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 2.6 8.9 4.1 0.3 15.9 4th
5th 1.4 10.0 6.2 0.6 18.1 5th
6th 0.5 7.0 8.4 0.7 16.6 6th
7th 0.2 4.2 8.4 1.5 0.0 14.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 7.2 2.2 0.1 12.0 8th
9th 0.4 2.1 4.0 2.0 0.1 8.6 9th
Total 0.4 2.2 6.6 13.9 19.0 22.6 18.0 11.0 4.7 1.3 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 62.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-5 30.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 5.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 1.3% 14.3% 14.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.1
10-6 4.7% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.5 4.2
9-7 11.0% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 1.0 10.0
8-8 18.0% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 1.5 16.5
7-9 22.6% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 1.2 21.4
6-10 19.0% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.7 18.3
5-11 13.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 13.6
4-12 6.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.6
3-13 2.2% 2.2
2-14 0.4% 0.4
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 5.5 94.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%