IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-13.6	#354
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.5	#293
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-7.1	#349

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-6.5	#354

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.2%	11.0%	5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	15.8	16.0

.500 or above	11.9%	35.1%	11.7%
.500 or above in Conference	42.0%	65.7%	41.8%
Conference Champion	5.5%	13.3%	5.5%
Last Place in Conference	16.7%	5.0%	16.8%

First Four	4.9%	8.2%	4.9%
First Round	2.1%	5.6%	2.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	0 - 2	0 - 7
Quad 4	9 - 12	9 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	59	@ Dayton	L	52-78	1%
Nov 08, 2024	43	@ Clemson	L	55-82	1%
Nov 10, 2024	301	@ Campbell	L	63-72	20%
Nov 12, 2024	67	@ Penn St.	L	58-83	1%
Nov 16, 2024	270	@ Mount St. Mary's	L	64-75	15%
Nov 23, 2024	101	@ Georgetown	L	59-81	3%
Nov 26, 2024	264	Lehigh	L	68-74	31%
Dec 01, 2024	269	Radford	L	62-67	32%
Dec 14, 2024	308	@ Niagara	L	64-73	22%
Dec 17, 2024	38	@ Maryland	L	51-79	1%
Jan 03, 2025	304	Central Connecticut St.	L	66-69	40%
Jan 05, 2025	356	Stonehill	W	69-65	62%
Jan 10, 2025	362	Mercyhurst	W	71-64	74%
Jan 12, 2025	347	@ Fairleigh Dickinson	L	72-77	35%
Jan 16, 2025	352	@ LIU Brooklyn	L	69-73	38%
Jan 20, 2025	285	@ Wagner	L	54-65	19%
Jan 24, 2025	352	LIU Brooklyn	W	72-70	57%
Jan 26, 2025	285	Wagner	L	57-62	35%
Jan 30, 2025	362	@ Mercyhurst	W	68-67	55%
Feb 06, 2025	335	Le Moyne	W	69-68	50%
Feb 08, 2025	332	@ Chicago St.	L	62-68	30%
Feb 13, 2025	356	@ Stonehill	L	66-68	42%
Feb 15, 2025	304	@ Central Connecticut St.	L	63-72	23%
Feb 20, 2025	335	@ Le Moyne	L	65-71	32%
Feb 22, 2025	347	Fairleigh Dickinson	W	75-74	55%
Mar 01, 2025	332	Chicago St.	L	65-66	49%
Projected Record						8 - 18	7 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Northeast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.2	0.9	1.6	1.5	0.9	0.4	0.1		5.5	1st
2nd									0.0	0.5	2.1	3.1	1.8	0.5	0.0				8.0	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.8	3.5	3.9	1.5	0.2	0.0					9.9	3rd
4th							0.0	1.0	4.3	4.7	1.4	0.1							11.5	4th
5th						0.1	1.2	5.0	5.1	1.3	0.1								12.8	5th
6th					0.1	1.6	5.5	5.3	1.4	0.0									13.8	6th
7th				0.3	2.2	5.5	5.0	1.1	0.1										14.1	7th
8th		0.1	0.8	3.0	5.1	3.6	0.8	0.1											13.5	8th
9th	0.5	1.8	3.2	3.1	1.7	0.3	0.0												10.7	9th

Total	0.5	1.8	4.0	6.5	9.2	11.0	12.5	12.4	11.6	10.0	7.7	5.7	3.6	2.1	0.9	0.4	0.1			Total

Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
15-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
14-2	95.9%	0.9		0.8	0.1	0.0
13-3	73.8%	1.5		1.0	0.5	0.0
12-4	44.2%	1.6		0.7	0.7	0.2	0.0
11-5	15.8%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
10-6	2.5%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
9-7	0.1%	0.0					0.0	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	5.5%	5.5		3.1	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.1%		68.0%	68.0%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
15-1	0.4%		39.4%	39.4%		15.8														0.0		0.0	0.1	0.2
14-2	0.9%		34.2%	34.2%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	0.6
13-3	2.1%		25.1%	25.1%		16.0																0.0	0.5	1.6
12-4	3.6%		20.9%	20.9%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.7	2.8
11-5	5.7%		15.5%	15.5%		16.0																	0.9	4.8
10-6	7.7%		10.4%	10.4%		16.0																	0.8	6.9
9-7	10.0%		6.2%	6.2%		16.0																	0.6	9.3
8-8	11.6%		4.2%	4.2%		16.0																	0.5	11.1
7-9	12.4%		2.7%	2.7%		16.0																	0.3	12.1
6-10	12.5%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.2	12.3
5-11	11.0%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	11.0
4-12	9.2%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	9.1
3-13	6.5%																							6.5
2-14	4.0%																							4.0
1-15	1.8%																							1.8
0-16	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		5.2%	5.2%	0.0%	16.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	5.1	94.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.4%