St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.5#331
Expected Predictive Rating-10.7#328
Pace68.0#186
Improvement-1.1#246

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#302
First Shot-1.9#231
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#327
Layup/Dunks-3.6#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#77
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#79
Freethrows-3.4#350
Improvement+0.9#136

Defense
Total Defense-5.9#337
First Shot-5.2#328
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#255
Layups/Dunks+0.4#155
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#270
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#354
Freethrows+1.5#80
Improvement-2.0#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.2% 6.8% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 45.1% 80.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.0% 1.0%
First Four6.2% 6.8% 5.4%
First Round2.1% 2.2% 1.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 56.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 49 - 1010 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 83   @ Dayton L 57-87 4%     0 - 1 -20.7 -14.3 -6.2
  Nov 08, 2024 23   @ Clemson L 62-88 1%     0 - 2 -7.9 -3.8 -3.4
  Nov 10, 2024 183   @ Campbell W 65-64 14%     1 - 2 +2.3 -3.4 +5.8
  Nov 12, 2024 62   @ Penn St. L 62-92 3%     1 - 3 -18.9 -14.5 -0.3
  Nov 16, 2024 258   @ Mount St. Mary's L 58-66 23%     1 - 4 -10.8 -12.8 +1.8
  Nov 23, 2024 73   @ Georgetown L 65-82 4%     1 - 5 -6.7 -1.1 -5.3
  Nov 26, 2024 279   Lehigh W 88-78 44%     2 - 5 +0.9 +13.4 -12.4
  Dec 01, 2024 177   Radford L 70-79 25%     2 - 6 -12.5 +0.8 -14.2
  Dec 14, 2024 319   @ Niagara L 66-69 35%     2 - 7 -9.7 -3.7 -6.3
  Dec 17, 2024 13   @ Maryland L 57-111 1%     2 - 8 -33.5 -6.8 -25.7
  Dec 21, 2024 173   @ Robert Morris L 77-90 12%     2 - 9 -11.0 +1.6 -11.9
  Jan 03, 2025 197   Central Connecticut St. L 59-74 28%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -19.6 -8.6 -12.2
  Jan 05, 2025 324   Stonehill L 60-64 57%     2 - 11 0 - 2 -16.3 -12.9 -3.8
  Jan 10, 2025 350   Mercyhurst W 73-59 68%     3 - 11 1 - 2 -1.4 +3.5 -2.9
  Jan 12, 2025 318   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-71 35%     4 - 11 2 - 2 -2.7 +1.3 -3.9
  Jan 18, 2025 323   @ LIU Brooklyn L 51-64 36%     4 - 12 2 - 3 -19.9 -13.1 -8.7
  Jan 20, 2025 347   @ Wagner L 68-70 2OT 48%     4 - 13 2 - 4 -12.1 -8.4 -3.7
  Jan 24, 2025 323   LIU Brooklyn W 74-64 56%     5 - 13 3 - 4 -2.0 +3.1 -4.7
  Jan 26, 2025 347   Wagner L 66-68 67%     5 - 14 3 - 5 -17.2 -1.4 -16.1
  Jan 30, 2025 350   @ Mercyhurst L 58-62 49%     5 - 15 3 - 6 -14.3 -17.2 +2.7
  Feb 06, 2025 357   Le Moyne W 86-78 71%     6 - 15 4 - 6 -8.4 +0.1 -8.7
  Feb 08, 2025 360   @ Chicago St. W 81-69 60%     7 - 15 5 - 6 -1.2 +6.4 -7.3
  Feb 13, 2025 324   @ Stonehill L 74-79 37%     7 - 16 5 - 7 -12.2 +5.5 -18.2
  Feb 15, 2025 197   @ Central Connecticut St. L 67-83 15%     7 - 17 5 - 8 -15.5 +0.6 -17.0
  Feb 20, 2025 357   @ Le Moyne W 81-76 OT 53%     8 - 17 6 - 8 -6.3 -0.7 -5.7
  Feb 22, 2025 318   Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-73 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 360   Chicago St. W 76-68 79%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 7.7 7.7 3rd
4th 0.3 23.4 23.7 4th
5th 0.8 28.4 14.0 43.2 5th
6th 5.8 15.4 21.1 6th
7th 3.7 0.5 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
Total 10.4 44.6 45.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 45.1% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 3.1 41.9
7-9 44.6% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 2.6 42.0
6-10 10.4% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.4 9.9
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 16.0 6.2 93.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.1% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 15.4%
Lose Out 7.0%