St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.2#339
Expected Predictive Rating-8.4#306
Pace71.4#106
Improvement-1.8#283

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#322
First Shot-2.7#257
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#314
Layup/Dunks-3.8#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#116
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#71
Freethrows-3.5#351
Improvement+1.6#75

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#344
First Shot-4.7#329
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#281
Layups/Dunks+0.0#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#257
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#348
Freethrows+1.4#80
Improvement-3.4#354
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 8.5% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 7.8% 15.8% 4.2%
.500 or above in Conference 47.1% 66.4% 38.2%
Conference Champion 5.2% 12.2% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 13.8% 5.9% 17.5%
First Four5.7% 7.9% 4.7%
First Round2.4% 3.6% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 31.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 410 - 1110 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 47   @ Dayton L 57-87 2%     0 - 1 -16.3 -11.5 -4.5
  Nov 08, 2024 37   @ Clemson L 62-88 2%     0 - 2 -11.0 -4.7 -5.6
  Nov 10, 2024 297   @ Campbell W 65-64 25%     1 - 2 -3.2 -7.0 +3.8
  Nov 12, 2024 32   @ Penn St. L 62-92 1%     1 - 3 -14.4 -11.6 +1.3
  Nov 16, 2024 235   @ Mount St. Mary's L 58-66 17%     1 - 4 -9.0 -12.0 +2.8
  Nov 23, 2024 66   @ Georgetown L 65-82 3%     1 - 5 -6.0 -3.0 -2.8
  Nov 26, 2024 249   Lehigh W 88-78 37%     2 - 5 +2.1 +11.2 -8.9
  Dec 01, 2024 205   Radford L 70-79 28%     2 - 6 -14.1 +0.5 -15.6
  Dec 14, 2024 321   @ Niagara L 66-69 31%     2 - 7 -9.0 -3.6 -5.8
  Dec 17, 2024 12   @ Maryland L 57-111 1%     2 - 8 -34.8 -6.2 -27.7
  Dec 21, 2024 255   @ Robert Morris L 77-90 19%     2 - 9 -15.1 +0.9 -15.3
  Jan 03, 2025 220   Central Connecticut St. L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 05, 2025 322   Stonehill W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 10, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 12, 2025 333   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 78-82 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 336   @ LIU Brooklyn L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 20, 2025 308   @ Wagner L 60-66 28%    
  Jan 24, 2025 336   LIU Brooklyn W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 26, 2025 308   Wagner L 62-63 50%    
  Jan 30, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 06, 2025 330   Le Moyne W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 361   @ Chicago St. W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 13, 2025 322   @ Stonehill L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 15, 2025 220   @ Central Connecticut St. L 64-75 16%    
  Feb 20, 2025 330   @ Le Moyne L 72-76 34%    
  Feb 22, 2025 333   Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-79 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 361   Chicago St. W 76-70 72%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 5.5 4.1 1.0 0.1 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 6.1 5.0 0.9 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 6.2 5.7 1.0 0.0 13.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 5.3 6.7 1.3 0.0 14.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.3 5.9 1.5 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.7 4.7 1.3 0.1 11.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.7 2.4 0.8 0.1 7.9 9th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.9 7.1 10.5 13.5 15.9 14.7 12.7 9.1 5.8 3.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 98.2% 0.4    0.4 0.0
13-3 81.4% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
12-4 55.8% 1.8    1.0 0.7 0.1
11-5 24.5% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
10-6 4.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.7 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 22.9% 22.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.5% 28.2% 28.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.3
13-3 1.2% 19.9% 19.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 1.0
12-4 3.1% 18.2% 18.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6 2.6
11-5 5.8% 13.9% 13.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8 5.0
10-6 9.1% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 1.0 8.0
9-7 12.7% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 1.0 11.7
8-8 14.7% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.8 13.9
7-9 15.9% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.8 15.1
6-10 13.5% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.4 13.0
5-11 10.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.4
4-12 7.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.0
3-13 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.9
2-14 1.5% 1.5
1-15 0.4% 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%