Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.2#319
Expected Predictive Rating-9.7#319
Pace63.1#311
Improvement+0.2#176

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#276
First Shot+0.4#152
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#357
Layup/Dunks-2.1#259
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#260
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#40
Freethrows-1.2#262
Improvement-1.2#245

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#324
First Shot-8.0#357
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#20
Layups/Dunks-0.3#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#121
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.8#362
Freethrows+0.4#156
Improvement+1.5#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.7% 3.7% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.2% 1.8%
First Four0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Away) - 19.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 410 - 1411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 12   @ Michigan St. L 60-96 1%     0 - 1 -15.2 -2.4 -12.5
  Nov 10, 2024 334   @ Detroit Mercy L 78-84 OT 46%     0 - 2 -14.3 -2.3 -11.6
  Nov 19, 2024 301   @ Bowling Green L 68-76 35%     0 - 3 -13.3 +0.8 -15.1
  Nov 21, 2024 137   @ Kent St. L 73-76 12%     0 - 4 +0.8 +8.8 -8.2
  Nov 29, 2024 299   Binghamton W 65-62 44%     1 - 4 -4.7 -1.8 -2.5
  Nov 30, 2024 298   @ Lafayette L 47-59 35%     1 - 5 -17.1 -22.5 +4.6
  Dec 01, 2024 323   LIU Brooklyn W 60-52 51%     2 - 5 -1.5 -3.9 +3.6
  Dec 06, 2024 228   Siena W 69-68 38%     3 - 5 1 - 0 -5.2 +5.9 -10.9
  Dec 08, 2024 214   Merrimack L 62-80 35%     3 - 6 1 - 1 -23.2 +6.7 -34.4
  Dec 14, 2024 331   St. Francis (PA) W 69-66 65%     4 - 6 -10.1 -3.4 -6.3
  Dec 21, 2024 106   @ St. Bonaventure L 52-71 8%     4 - 7 -12.4 -11.4 -2.7
  Dec 29, 2024 357   Le Moyne W 88-69 75%     5 - 7 +2.6 +2.8 -0.6
  Jan 05, 2025 258   @ Mount St. Mary's L 62-68 27%     5 - 8 1 - 2 -8.8 -12.5 +3.9
  Jan 10, 2025 292   St. Peter's W 70-60 52%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +0.3 +2.0 -0.9
  Jan 12, 2025 313   Rider L 65-68 59%     6 - 9 2 - 3 -14.6 -6.3 -8.7
  Jan 16, 2025 328   @ Fairfield L 66-70 44%     6 - 10 2 - 4 -11.7 -4.0 -8.1
  Jan 18, 2025 263   @ Manhattan L 65-72 27%     6 - 11 2 - 5 -9.9 -1.1 -10.1
  Jan 23, 2025 223   Marist L 65-67 OT 37%     6 - 12 2 - 6 -7.8 -3.7 -4.3
  Jan 25, 2025 274   Sacred Heart L 77-86 49%     6 - 13 2 - 7 -17.9 +4.0 -22.5
  Jan 31, 2025 354   @ Canisius W 64-63 57%     7 - 13 3 - 7 -10.0 -11.2 +1.3
  Feb 06, 2025 214   @ Merrimack L 59-64 19%     7 - 14 3 - 8 -5.1 -6.8 +1.5
  Feb 08, 2025 189   @ Quinnipiac W 76-75 17%     8 - 14 4 - 8 +1.9 +9.0 -7.1
  Feb 12, 2025 354   Canisius W 71-60 75%     9 - 14 5 - 8 -5.1 -6.3 +2.2
  Feb 14, 2025 258   Mount St. Mary's L 83-84 45%     9 - 15 5 - 9 -8.9 +7.6 -16.5
  Feb 21, 2025 228   @ Siena L 60-94 22%     9 - 16 5 - 10 -35.1 -10.2 -26.3
  Feb 23, 2025 223   @ Marist L 61-69 20%    
  Feb 28, 2025 259   Iona L 68-69 46%    
  Mar 02, 2025 263   Manhattan L 73-74 47%    
  Mar 06, 2025 292   @ St. Peter's L 60-65 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 313   @ Rider L 66-69 37%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.2 6th
7th 0.6 0.3 0.9 7th
8th 1.0 2.6 0.2 3.8 8th
9th 0.1 6.2 14.3 3.0 23.6 9th
10th 3.3 16.2 3.9 0.1 23.5 10th
11th 0.7 13.2 9.2 0.2 23.3 11th
12th 10.6 13.0 1.1 24.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 13th
Total 11.4 29.5 32.8 19.4 6.2 0.7 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
9-11 6.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.2
8-12 19.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 19.2
7-13 32.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 32.5
6-14 29.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 29.4
5-15 11.4% 11.4
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 11.2%