Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.2#327
Expected Predictive Rating-17.2#352
Pace67.9#230
Improvement+0.6#107

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#284
First Shot-0.5#203
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#334
Layup/Dunks-5.9#330
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.2#4
Freethrows-3.4#322
Improvement+0.6#92

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#337
First Shot-7.4#354
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#60
Layups/Dunks-0.6#191
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#307
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#308
Freethrows-0.8#225
Improvement+0.0#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 3.7% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 15.1% 36.0% 13.3%
.500 or above in Conference 29.6% 45.9% 28.1%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.8% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 15.6% 8.0% 16.2%
First Four1.2% 2.1% 1.2%
First Round1.1% 2.4% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Away) - 8.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 410 - 1211 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 35   @ Michigan St. L 60-96 2%     0 - 1 -21.2 -4.6 -16.2
  Nov 10, 2024 338   @ Detroit Mercy L 78-84 OT 47%     0 - 2 -14.5 -4.9 -9.1
  Nov 19, 2024 264   @ Bowling Green L 68-76 25%     0 - 3 -10.2 +0.6 -11.7
  Nov 21, 2024 123   @ Kent St. L 62-77 8%    
  Nov 29, 2024 329   Binghamton W 71-70 52%    
  Nov 30, 2024 237   @ Lafayette L 63-72 22%    
  Dec 01, 2024 337   LIU Brooklyn W 77-72 66%    
  Dec 06, 2024 306   Siena W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 08, 2024 230   Merrimack L 66-69 40%    
  Dec 14, 2024 343   St. Francis (PA) W 74-68 70%    
  Dec 21, 2024 114   @ St. Bonaventure L 62-78 8%    
  Dec 29, 2024 336   Le Moyne W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 05, 2025 260   @ Mount St. Mary's L 68-75 27%    
  Jan 10, 2025 178   St. Peter's L 63-68 32%    
  Jan 12, 2025 240   Rider L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 16, 2025 274   @ Fairfield L 68-74 29%    
  Jan 18, 2025 328   @ Manhattan L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 23, 2025 234   Marist L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 331   Sacred Heart W 78-74 65%    
  Jan 31, 2025 351   @ Canisius W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 06, 2025 230   @ Merrimack L 63-72 23%    
  Feb 08, 2025 224   @ Quinnipiac L 70-79 21%    
  Feb 12, 2025 351   Canisius W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 14, 2025 260   Mount St. Mary's L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 21, 2025 306   @ Siena L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 23, 2025 234   @ Marist L 65-74 23%    
  Feb 28, 2025 217   Iona L 69-73 38%    
  Mar 02, 2025 328   Manhattan W 74-71 61%    
  Mar 06, 2025 178   @ St. Peter's L 60-71 17%    
  Mar 08, 2025 240   @ Rider L 68-76 24%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 2.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.1 0.8 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.3 1.3 0.1 9.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 3.3 4.9 2.0 0.2 11.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.3 5.1 2.5 0.3 12.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 5.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.4 4.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 11.8 12th
13th 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.9 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 9.8 13th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.4 4.7 6.8 9.4 11.4 12.1 11.8 10.8 8.8 7.5 5.3 3.6 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 91.4% 0.3    0.2 0.0 0.0
16-4 72.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 37.2% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 14.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 24.3% 24.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 16.4% 16.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.6% 15.9% 15.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
15-5 1.3% 13.9% 13.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
14-6 2.2% 10.3% 10.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.0
13-7 3.6% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3 3.3
12-8 5.3% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0
11-9 7.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.3
10-10 8.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 8.6
9-11 10.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.7
8-12 11.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.7
7-13 12.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.0
6-14 11.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.3
5-15 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.4
4-16 6.8% 6.8
3-17 4.7% 4.7
2-18 2.4% 2.4
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 98.2 0.0%