Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#320
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#297
Pace61.4#348
Improvement+1.1#109

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#264
First Shot+1.2#144
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#357
Layup/Dunks-1.5#234
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#29
Freethrows-1.6#277
Improvement+0.0#171

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#342
First Shot-8.3#363
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#22
Layups/Dunks-1.0#207
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#197
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.2#360
Freethrows+0.9#129
Improvement+1.1#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 3.9% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 14.3% 33.3% 13.4%
.500 or above in Conference 29.8% 42.4% 29.2%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.9% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 14.2% 10.2% 14.4%
First Four1.3% 2.1% 1.3%
First Round1.2% 3.0% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 4.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 412 - 1212 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 15   @ Michigan St. L 60-96 1%     0 - 1 -17.7 -3.9 -13.5
  Nov 10, 2024 323   @ Detroit Mercy L 78-84 OT 39%     0 - 2 -12.1 -2.8 -8.9
  Nov 19, 2024 267   @ Bowling Green L 68-76 28%     0 - 3 -10.7 +0.6 -12.3
  Nov 21, 2024 113   @ Kent St. L 73-76 8%     0 - 4 +3.4 +11.6 -8.4
  Nov 29, 2024 314   Binghamton W 65-62 49%     1 - 4 -5.6 -2.4 -2.7
  Nov 30, 2024 246   @ Lafayette L 47-59 25%     1 - 5 -13.8 -22.1 +7.5
  Dec 01, 2024 340   LIU Brooklyn W 60-52 60%     2 - 5 -3.4 -8.0 +5.8
  Dec 06, 2024 305   Siena W 69-68 58%     3 - 5 1 - 0 -9.8 +4.2 -13.8
  Dec 08, 2024 198   Merrimack L 62-80 34%     3 - 6 1 - 1 -22.6 +4.6 -31.7
  Dec 14, 2024 336   St. Francis (PA) W 69-66 69%     4 - 6 -11.1 -3.0 -7.7
  Dec 21, 2024 89   @ St. Bonaventure L 57-75 4%    
  Dec 29, 2024 332   Le Moyne W 72-68 66%    
  Jan 05, 2025 253   @ Mount St. Mary's L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 10, 2025 210   St. Peter's L 61-65 37%    
  Jan 12, 2025 300   Rider W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 16, 2025 280   @ Fairfield L 68-73 31%    
  Jan 18, 2025 293   @ Manhattan L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 23, 2025 233   Marist L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 25, 2025 284   Sacred Heart W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 31, 2025 350   @ Canisius W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 06, 2025 198   @ Merrimack L 60-70 18%    
  Feb 08, 2025 245   @ Quinnipiac L 67-74 26%    
  Feb 12, 2025 350   Canisius W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 14, 2025 253   Mount St. Mary's L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 21, 2025 305   @ Siena L 63-67 36%    
  Feb 23, 2025 233   @ Marist L 61-69 23%    
  Feb 28, 2025 258   Iona L 68-69 48%    
  Mar 02, 2025 293   Manhattan W 73-72 54%    
  Mar 06, 2025 210   @ St. Peter's L 58-68 20%    
  Mar 08, 2025 300   @ Rider L 64-68 35%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 3.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.6 3.7 0.4 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.3 1.4 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.5 3.1 0.2 11.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.2 4.2 0.6 0.0 11.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.9 5.0 1.2 0.0 13.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.7 4.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 13.0 12th
13th 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.7 2.1 0.5 0.1 8.3 13th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.1 8.6 11.3 14.0 14.2 13.5 11.0 8.1 5.2 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 84.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 76.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 51.5% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 24.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 6.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 10.9% 10.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.2% 22.5% 22.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.7% 16.2% 16.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
14-6 1.6% 14.3% 14.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3
13-7 3.0% 9.5% 9.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.7
12-8 5.2% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 4.8
11-9 8.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 7.8
10-10 11.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.7
9-11 13.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.3
8-12 14.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 14.1
7-13 14.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.9
6-14 11.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.3
5-15 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.6
4-16 5.1% 5.1
3-17 2.5% 2.5
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%