Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#298
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#280
Pace67.4#222
Improvement+0.5#157

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#212
First Shot-1.7#221
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#158
Layup/Dunks-3.8#307
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#151
Freethrows-2.1#300
Improvement+3.2#16

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#345
First Shot-5.0#335
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#259
Layups/Dunks-5.5#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#162
Freethrows-1.1#261
Improvement-2.7#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 5.0% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 16.6% 31.6% 13.2%
.500 or above in Conference 40.4% 50.6% 38.1%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.9% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 4.7% 8.0%
First Four2.1% 2.4% 2.0%
First Round2.6% 3.9% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Columbia (Away) - 18.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 411 - 1013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 94   @ Rhode Island L 58-96 8%     0 - 1 -29.5 -15.1 -11.6
  Nov 09, 2024 66   @ Georgetown L 57-69 5%     0 - 2 -1.0 -8.9 +7.7
  Nov 12, 2024 354   @ New Hampshire W 62-56 60%     1 - 2 -3.8 -8.1 +4.7
  Nov 19, 2024 153   Drexel L 61-67 33%     1 - 3 -8.8 -6.5 -2.9
  Nov 23, 2024 99   Yale L 66-91 13%     1 - 4 -20.1 +4.4 -28.3
  Nov 24, 2024 221   Vermont W 67-66 35%     2 - 4 -2.3 +3.2 -5.4
  Dec 01, 2024 333   Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-74 71%     3 - 4 -9.2 -2.5 -6.6
  Dec 04, 2024 299   Rider W 78-75 62%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -7.5 +4.6 -11.9
  Dec 08, 2024 235   @ Mount St. Mary's L 94-101 27%     4 - 5 1 - 1 -8.0 +20.6 -28.5
  Dec 18, 2024 220   Central Connecticut St. L 63-64 45%     4 - 6 -7.1 -4.0 -3.2
  Dec 21, 2024 261   @ Monmouth L 74-88 31%     4 - 7 -16.3 -0.1 -16.3
  Dec 28, 2024 176   @ Columbia L 73-82 18%    
  Jan 03, 2025 195   @ Merrimack L 65-74 21%    
  Jan 10, 2025 263   Iona W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 12, 2025 230   @ Marist L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 16, 2025 321   Niagara W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 353   Canisius W 78-70 78%    
  Jan 23, 2025 275   @ Manhattan L 75-79 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 195   Merrimack L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 31, 2025 247   @ Quinnipiac L 74-80 30%    
  Feb 02, 2025 263   @ Iona L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 06, 2025 230   Marist L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 285   Sacred Heart W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 14, 2025 206   @ St. Peter's L 63-71 23%    
  Feb 16, 2025 275   Manhattan W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 21, 2025 299   @ Rider L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 28, 2025 235   Mount St. Mary's L 73-74 49%    
  Mar 02, 2025 285   @ Sacred Heart L 74-78 37%    
  Mar 06, 2025 305   @ Siena L 68-70 41%    
  Mar 08, 2025 247   Quinnipiac W 77-76 51%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 3.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.2 1.5 0.1 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.3 2.8 0.2 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.8 4.7 0.7 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.3 2.9 5.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.6 3.2 0.2 11.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.9 3.7 0.6 0.0 11.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.1 3.9 1.0 0.0 10.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.1 2.9 0.9 0.1 9.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.7 13th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.7 9.1 12.0 13.7 14.3 12.9 10.5 7.4 5.0 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 93.9% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-4 89.6% 0.4    0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 60.2% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.1
14-6 27.3% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 5.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 10.0% 10.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 31.7% 31.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.5% 22.5% 22.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.4% 17.2% 17.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
14-6 2.6% 14.6% 14.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.2
13-7 5.0% 12.4% 12.4% 15.8 0.1 0.5 4.3
12-8 7.4% 8.3% 8.3% 15.9 0.0 0.6 6.8
11-9 10.5% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6 9.9
10-10 12.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 12.5
9-11 14.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 14.0
8-12 13.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 13.5
7-13 12.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.0
6-14 9.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.0
5-15 5.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.7
4-16 3.1% 3.1
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.0 96.4 0.0%