Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#223
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#149
Pace62.0#335
Improvement+1.0#142

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#286
First Shot-1.9#229
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#309
Layup/Dunks-0.6#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#193
Freethrows-3.6#355
Improvement-0.7#218

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#151
First Shot+0.2#178
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#126
Layups/Dunks-0.8#206
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#198
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#133
Freethrows-0.3#202
Improvement+1.7#95
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.9% 17.6% 14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 59.5% 65.7% 34.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.0% 2.8% 3.4%
First Round15.7% 16.5% 12.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Home) - 80.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 33 - 13 - 1
Quad 420 - 723 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 251   @ Harvard L 66-79 47%     0 - 1 -15.5 -3.2 -13.2
  Nov 09, 2024 218   @ Richmond W 79-72 40%     1 - 1 +6.4 +9.1 -2.4
  Nov 15, 2024 287   Army W 91-88 OT 72%     2 - 1 -6.5 +13.1 -19.6
  Nov 19, 2024 206   Dartmouth W 75-62 57%     3 - 1 +8.0 +0.6 +7.2
  Nov 23, 2024 355   New Hampshire W 54-49 88%     4 - 1 -11.3 -19.8 +9.1
  Nov 30, 2024 279   @ Lehigh L 69-74 53%     4 - 2 -9.0 +2.5 -12.0
  Dec 06, 2024 258   Mount St. Mary's W 53-50 67%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -4.9 -17.3 +12.6
  Dec 08, 2024 263   @ Manhattan W 82-75 49%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +4.1 +8.0 -3.7
  Dec 17, 2024 320   @ Stony Brook W 68-66 64%     7 - 2 -4.9 +4.4 -8.8
  Dec 21, 2024 288   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76-73 OT 73%     8 - 2 -6.6 -7.8 +1.1
  Dec 29, 2024 299   Binghamton W 69-51 75%     9 - 2 +7.8 -3.0 +12.1
  Jan 03, 2025 259   @ Iona W 70-65 48%     10 - 2 3 - 0 +2.2 -3.3 +5.3
  Jan 05, 2025 189   Quinnipiac W 69-62 54%     11 - 2 4 - 0 +2.8 -6.7 +9.2
  Jan 12, 2025 328   Fairfield W 61-51 81%     12 - 2 5 - 0 -2.8 -7.7 +6.7
  Jan 16, 2025 292   @ St. Peter's W 56-51 55%     13 - 2 6 - 0 +0.4 -5.3 +6.6
  Jan 18, 2025 313   Rider L 57-64 79%     13 - 3 6 - 1 -18.6 -16.8 -2.4
  Jan 23, 2025 319   @ Niagara W 67-65 OT 63%     14 - 3 7 - 1 -4.7 -5.3 +0.7
  Jan 25, 2025 354   @ Canisius W 70-47 77%     15 - 3 8 - 1 +12.0 -1.2 +16.4
  Jan 31, 2025 228   Siena W 72-67 61%     16 - 3 9 - 1 -1.2 +3.7 -4.4
  Feb 06, 2025 328   @ Fairfield L 56-59 67%     16 - 4 9 - 2 -10.7 -11.0 -0.2
  Feb 08, 2025 259   Iona L 71-75 67%     16 - 5 9 - 3 -11.9 +4.7 -16.9
  Feb 14, 2025 228   @ Siena W 65-64 41%     17 - 5 10 - 3 -0.1 -1.2 +1.2
  Feb 16, 2025 214   @ Merrimack W 61-60 38%     18 - 5 11 - 3 +0.9 -2.3 +3.3
  Feb 21, 2025 354   Canisius W 89-81 88%     19 - 5 12 - 3 -8.1 +14.6 -21.9
  Feb 23, 2025 319   Niagara W 69-61 80%    
  Feb 28, 2025 274   @ Sacred Heart W 71-70 51%    
  Mar 02, 2025 292   St. Peter's W 62-56 74%    
  Mar 06, 2025 214   Merrimack W 61-59 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 258   @ Mount St. Mary's L 65-66 47%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.4 20.2 24.8 10.0 59.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.7 14.0 13.5 3.0 33.2 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.9 2.3 6.7 3rd
4th 0.3 0.2 0.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.9 7.0 20.6 33.7 27.8 10.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 10.0    8.8 1.2
16-4 89.2% 24.8    16.3 8.6
15-5 60.0% 20.2    7.6 11.3 1.4
14-6 21.4% 4.4    0.4 1.8 2.0 0.2
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 59.5% 59.5 33.0 22.9 3.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 10.0% 24.6% 24.6% 14.6 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.1 7.6
16-4 27.8% 19.5% 19.5% 15.3 0.4 2.9 2.1 22.4
15-5 33.7% 16.3% 16.3% 15.6 0.1 2.0 3.4 28.2
14-6 20.6% 13.7% 13.7% 15.8 0.5 2.3 17.8
13-7 7.0% 9.9% 9.9% 15.8 0.1 0.6 6.3
12-8 0.9% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.1 0.9
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.9% 16.9% 0.0% 15.4 0.1 1.4 6.9 8.6 83.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 14.6 2.8 39.4 54.5 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.7%
Lose Out 0.5%