Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#213
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#115
Pace62.9#326
Improvement+3.6#42

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#282
First Shot-1.7#226
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#308
Layup/Dunks-0.4#200
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#193
Freethrows-3.5#350
Improvement-2.5#311

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#135
First Shot+0.6#160
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#129
Layups/Dunks-0.6#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#132
Freethrows-0.2#201
Improvement+6.0#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.8% 18.1% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.1% 98.5% 92.6%
Conference Champion 39.6% 44.8% 22.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
First Round16.4% 17.7% 12.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 77.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 32 - 32 - 3
Quad 420 - 622 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 235   @ Harvard L 66-79 44%     0 - 1 -14.2 -1.5 -13.5
  Nov 09, 2024 211   @ Richmond W 79-72 37%     1 - 1 +7.7 +9.8 -1.8
  Nov 15, 2024 316   Army W 91-88 OT 81%     2 - 1 -8.9 +12.4 -21.3
  Nov 19, 2024 278   Dartmouth W 75-62 74%     3 - 1 +3.6 -2.6 +5.9
  Nov 23, 2024 356   New Hampshire W 54-49 90%     4 - 1 -11.8 -17.6 +6.4
  Nov 30, 2024 266   @ Lehigh L 69-74 50%     4 - 2 -7.7 +1.8 -10.0
  Dec 06, 2024 229   Mount St. Mary's W 53-50 66%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -4.0 -15.8 +12.0
  Dec 08, 2024 293   @ Manhattan W 82-75 55%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +2.9 +6.9 -3.8
  Dec 17, 2024 324   @ Stony Brook W 68-66 65%     7 - 2 -4.7 +4.6 -8.9
  Dec 21, 2024 231   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76-73 OT 66%     8 - 2 -4.0 -6.6 +2.5
  Dec 29, 2024 311   Binghamton W 69-51 80%     9 - 2 +6.6 -4.8 +12.7
  Jan 03, 2025 256   @ Iona W 70-65 49%     10 - 2 3 - 0 +2.6 -4.2 +6.5
  Jan 05, 2025 218   Quinnipiac W 69-62 64%     11 - 2 4 - 0 +0.7 -7.7 +8.0
  Jan 12, 2025 302   Fairfield W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 16, 2025 219   @ St. Peter's L 58-60 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 305   Rider W 68-60 78%    
  Jan 23, 2025 308   @ Niagara W 66-64 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 353   @ Canisius W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 31, 2025 283   Siena W 67-60 75%    
  Feb 06, 2025 302   @ Fairfield W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 256   Iona W 69-63 71%    
  Feb 14, 2025 283   @ Siena W 64-63 53%    
  Feb 16, 2025 198   @ Merrimack L 60-64 36%    
  Feb 21, 2025 353   Canisius W 75-61 89%    
  Feb 23, 2025 308   Niagara W 69-61 77%    
  Feb 28, 2025 288   @ Sacred Heart W 70-69 55%    
  Mar 02, 2025 219   St. Peter's W 61-57 64%    
  Mar 06, 2025 198   Merrimack W 63-61 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 229   @ Mount St. Mary's L 64-66 44%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.5 8.8 10.3 8.5 4.5 1.8 0.3 39.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.7 8.2 6.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.2 6.3 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.6 2.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.3 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.9 4.0 6.6 10.8 14.4 16.4 16.2 12.9 9.2 4.5 1.8 0.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
18-2 99.6% 4.5    4.4 0.1
17-3 93.1% 8.5    7.4 1.1 0.0
16-4 80.1% 10.3    7.2 3.0 0.2
15-5 54.4% 8.8    4.5 3.4 0.9 0.0
14-6 27.1% 4.5    1.1 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 5.9% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 39.6% 39.6 26.7 9.7 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 37.2% 37.2% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
19-1 1.8% 33.3% 33.3% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.2
18-2 4.5% 31.7% 31.7% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.1
17-3 9.2% 28.7% 28.7% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.0 6.5
16-4 12.9% 22.3% 22.3% 14.7 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.2 10.0
15-5 16.2% 19.3% 19.3% 14.9 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.4 13.1
14-6 16.4% 15.3% 15.3% 15.3 0.2 1.5 0.8 13.9
13-7 14.4% 12.2% 12.2% 15.5 0.0 0.8 0.9 12.7
12-8 10.8% 10.2% 10.2% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 9.7
11-9 6.6% 7.2% 7.2% 15.8 0.1 0.4 6.1
10-10 4.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.9
9-11 1.9% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.1 1.8
8-12 0.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.1 7.7 3.7 83.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.2 6.3 78.1 9.4 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%