Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#195
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#183
Pace64.2#300
Improvement+2.7#50

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#269
First Shot-0.6#189
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#318
Layup/Dunks-4.1#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#64
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#85
Freethrows-1.5#271
Improvement+4.5#5

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#121
First Shot+2.1#110
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#234
Layups/Dunks+0.1#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#123
Freethrows-0.5#226
Improvement-1.7#298
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.9% 22.0% 16.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 76.2% 80.9% 58.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 97.2% 89.2%
Conference Champion 41.5% 46.1% 23.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four3.2% 2.9% 4.5%
First Round19.5% 20.7% 14.9%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 32 - 42 - 9
Quad 416 - 518 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 221   Vermont W 65-51 67%     1 - 0 +7.7 -1.5 +10.6
  Nov 13, 2024 60   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 42-63 10%     1 - 1 -8.8 -23.0 +14.5
  Nov 17, 2024 111   Princeton L 57-68 41%     1 - 2 -10.5 -6.6 -5.9
  Nov 20, 2024 63   @ Rutgers L 63-74 12%     1 - 3 +0.4 -2.2 +2.2
  Nov 22, 2024 69   @ Butler L 39-78 12%     1 - 4 -28.2 -23.9 -10.0
  Nov 25, 2024 144   @ Umass Lowell L 74-81 30%     1 - 5 -3.3 -2.8 -0.2
  Nov 27, 2024 225   Texas San Antonio L 74-76 57%     1 - 6 -5.5 -7.4 +2.0
  Nov 29, 2024 118   @ Troy W 72-68 24%     2 - 6 +9.8 +10.4 -0.3
  Dec 06, 2024 353   @ Canisius W 60-52 78%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -1.7 -16.1 +14.8
  Dec 08, 2024 321   @ Niagara W 80-62 66%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +12.0 +23.1 -6.7
  Dec 13, 2024 257   Boston University W 64-61 73%     5 - 6 -5.2 +1.6 -6.1
  Dec 17, 2024 96   @ Stanford L 68-74 17%     5 - 7 +2.5 +1.0 +1.3
  Dec 19, 2024 45   @ St. Mary's L 68-73 8%     5 - 8 +8.9 +13.1 -5.0
  Jan 03, 2025 298   Fairfield W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 10, 2025 285   @ Sacred Heart W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 12, 2025 275   Manhattan W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 16, 2025 247   @ Quinnipiac W 71-70 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 305   Siena W 68-59 80%    
  Jan 23, 2025 206   @ St. Peter's L 60-63 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 298   @ Fairfield W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 31, 2025 235   Mount St. Mary's W 70-65 69%    
  Feb 02, 2025 299   @ Rider W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 06, 2025 321   Niagara W 70-60 83%    
  Feb 08, 2025 353   Canisius W 75-61 90%    
  Feb 14, 2025 275   @ Manhattan W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 16, 2025 230   Marist W 65-60 67%    
  Feb 21, 2025 285   Sacred Heart W 73-65 76%    
  Feb 23, 2025 263   @ Iona W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 28, 2025 299   Rider W 69-60 78%    
  Mar 02, 2025 247   Quinnipiac W 73-67 71%    
  Mar 06, 2025 230   @ Marist L 62-63 46%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 4.7 10.0 10.9 8.3 4.4 1.7 0.3 41.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.9 7.3 5.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.1 5.8 2.7 0.5 0.1 12.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.8 7.6 10.5 14.3 15.1 15.6 12.6 8.5 4.5 1.7 0.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7
18-2 99.6% 4.4    4.3 0.1
17-3 97.2% 8.3    7.5 0.7 0.0
16-4 86.4% 10.9    8.3 2.4 0.2
15-5 63.9% 10.0    5.5 3.7 0.7 0.0
14-6 31.4% 4.7    1.3 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-7 7.7% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 41.5% 41.5 29.2 9.5 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 48.0% 48.0% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
19-1 1.7% 42.4% 42.4% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.0
18-2 4.5% 35.8% 35.8% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.9
17-3 8.5% 32.2% 32.2% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.1 5.8
16-4 12.6% 29.2% 29.2% 14.9 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.6 8.9
15-5 15.6% 24.7% 24.7% 15.2 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.3 11.7
14-6 15.1% 20.9% 20.9% 15.6 0.1 1.2 1.9 12.0
13-7 14.3% 17.0% 17.0% 15.7 0.6 1.8 11.9
12-8 10.5% 14.4% 14.4% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.3 9.0
11-9 7.6% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7 6.9
10-10 4.8% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.3 4.5
9-11 2.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.1 2.4
8-12 1.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
7-13 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.9% 20.9% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.5 8.4 8.0 79.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.2 14.5 53.0 30.1 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%