Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#204
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#178
Pace64.0#299
Improvement+1.6#111

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#282
First Shot-0.8#200
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#336
Layup/Dunks-3.7#304
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#82
Freethrows-2.0#298
Improvement+1.4#95

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#122
First Shot+2.6#95
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#254
Layups/Dunks+0.0#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#139
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#68
Freethrows-0.8#247
Improvement+0.2#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.0% 23.7% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 86.7% 94.3% 80.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.9% 98.9%
Conference Champion 34.3% 44.6% 25.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.8% 1.8% 3.7%
First Round19.7% 22.9% 17.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Away) - 45.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 31 - 42 - 9
Quad 417 - 519 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 213   Vermont W 65-51 63%     1 - 0 +8.6 -0.5 +10.5
  Nov 13, 2024 40   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 42-63 7%     1 - 1 -6.7 -22.9 +16.5
  Nov 17, 2024 125   Princeton L 57-68 43%     1 - 2 -11.3 -6.2 -7.2
  Nov 20, 2024 67   @ Rutgers L 63-74 12%     1 - 3 -0.1 -2.6 +2.1
  Nov 22, 2024 80   @ Butler L 39-78 13%     1 - 4 -29.2 -24.4 -10.5
  Nov 25, 2024 190   @ Umass Lowell L 74-81 37%     1 - 5 -5.7 -3.3 -2.0
  Nov 27, 2024 221   Texas San Antonio L 74-76 55%     1 - 6 -5.3 -8.3 +3.1
  Nov 29, 2024 117   @ Troy W 72-68 24%     2 - 6 +9.3 +9.8 +0.0
  Dec 06, 2024 345   @ Canisius W 60-52 75%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -1.3 -16.5 +15.7
  Dec 08, 2024 312   @ Niagara W 80-62 64%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +12.1 +23.7 -7.1
  Dec 13, 2024 283   Boston University W 64-61 76%     5 - 6 -6.6 +2.3 -8.2
  Dec 17, 2024 88   @ Stanford L 68-74 15%     5 - 7 +3.1 +0.3 +2.6
  Dec 19, 2024 35   @ St. Mary's L 68-73 6%     5 - 8 +10.3 +13.9 -4.4
  Jan 03, 2025 318   Fairfield W 67-54 81%     6 - 8 3 - 0 +1.4 -3.4 +6.8
  Jan 10, 2025 298   @ Sacred Heart W 66-65 61%     7 - 8 4 - 0 -4.1 -8.9 +4.7
  Jan 12, 2025 296   Manhattan W 69-62 78%     8 - 8 5 - 0 -3.3 -6.5 +3.8
  Jan 16, 2025 186   @ Quinnipiac L 76-81 36%     8 - 9 5 - 1 -3.5 +4.4 -7.8
  Jan 18, 2025 273   Siena W 64-58 74%     9 - 9 6 - 1 -2.8 -4.2 +2.0
  Jan 23, 2025 231   @ St. Peter's L 58-59 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 318   @ Fairfield W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 31, 2025 266   Mount St. Mary's W 69-63 74%    
  Feb 02, 2025 294   @ Rider W 66-63 59%    
  Feb 06, 2025 312   Niagara W 69-60 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 345   Canisius W 74-62 88%    
  Feb 14, 2025 296   @ Manhattan W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 16, 2025 217   Marist W 63-59 64%    
  Feb 21, 2025 298   Sacred Heart W 74-66 79%    
  Feb 23, 2025 252   @ Iona W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 28, 2025 294   Rider W 69-61 78%    
  Mar 02, 2025 186   Quinnipiac W 69-67 57%    
  Mar 06, 2025 217   @ Marist L 60-62 42%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.8 11.0 9.0 3.9 0.6 34.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.2 9.6 10.0 4.9 0.9 0.0 30.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.2 9.1 6.9 2.2 0.3 23.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 3.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.9 4.5 9.0 15.0 19.3 19.0 16.2 9.9 4.0 0.6 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
18-2 99.2% 3.9    3.6 0.3
17-3 91.2% 9.0    7.1 1.8 0.1
16-4 67.8% 11.0    7.0 3.6 0.4
15-5 35.9% 6.8    2.9 3.0 0.9 0.0
14-6 13.5% 2.6    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.3% 34.3 21.8 9.9 2.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.6% 42.1% 42.1% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
18-2 4.0% 36.5% 36.5% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.5
17-3 9.9% 30.7% 30.7% 14.7 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.1 6.9
16-4 16.2% 26.9% 26.9% 15.0 0.7 2.8 0.8 11.8
15-5 19.0% 21.8% 21.8% 15.3 0.2 2.4 1.6 14.8
14-6 19.3% 18.0% 18.0% 15.7 0.0 1.1 2.3 15.8
13-7 15.0% 18.3% 18.3% 15.8 0.5 2.3 12.3
12-8 9.0% 11.3% 11.3% 15.9 0.2 0.9 8.0
11-9 4.5% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 4.1
10-10 1.9% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 1.9
9-11 0.5% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.0% 21.0% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.5 2.7 9.2 8.5 79.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.2 8.3 70.8 16.7 4.2