Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#214
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#216
Pace63.7#297
Improvement-0.1#195

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#328
First Shot-2.6#252
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#340
Layup/Dunks-4.3#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#81
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#103
Freethrows-2.2#311
Improvement-2.9#308

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#82
First Shot+3.8#68
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#221
Layups/Dunks+0.5#152
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#123
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#58
Freethrows-0.5#226
Improvement+2.7#49
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.8% 21.0% 16.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 83.9% 96.7% 71.8%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 10.5% 17.3% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.6% 4.3% 6.8%
First Round16.5% 19.3% 13.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Away) - 48.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 31 - 32 - 8
Quad 415 - 817 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 230   Vermont W 65-51 63%     1 - 0 +7.8 -0.8 +10.0
  Nov 13, 2024 34   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 42-63 5%     1 - 1 -5.3 -23.1 +18.1
  Nov 17, 2024 162   Princeton L 57-68 50%     1 - 2 -13.6 -6.2 -9.4
  Nov 20, 2024 63   @ Rutgers L 63-74 11%     1 - 3 -0.1 -3.0 +2.6
  Nov 22, 2024 66   @ Butler L 39-78 11%     1 - 4 -28.1 -24.8 -9.1
  Nov 25, 2024 225   @ Umass Lowell L 74-81 43%     1 - 5 -7.9 -5.6 -2.0
  Nov 27, 2024 208   Texas San Antonio L 74-76 50%     1 - 6 -4.5 -6.5 +2.1
  Nov 29, 2024 118   @ Troy W 72-68 23%     2 - 6 +9.3 +10.8 -1.1
  Dec 06, 2024 354   @ Canisius W 60-52 79%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -3.0 -17.5 +15.0
  Dec 08, 2024 319   @ Niagara W 80-62 65%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +11.3 +23.0 -7.2
  Dec 13, 2024 300   Boston University W 64-61 77%     5 - 6 -7.4 +1.5 -8.1
  Dec 17, 2024 88   @ Stanford L 68-74 14%     5 - 7 +2.9 +1.4 +1.3
  Dec 19, 2024 30   @ St. Mary's L 68-73 4%     5 - 8 +12.2 +16.0 -4.6
  Jan 03, 2025 328   Fairfield W 67-54 83%     6 - 8 3 - 0 +0.2 -2.7 +4.9
  Jan 10, 2025 274   @ Sacred Heart W 66-65 54%     7 - 8 4 - 0 -2.8 -8.6 +5.9
  Jan 12, 2025 263   Manhattan W 69-62 70%     8 - 8 5 - 0 -1.0 -4.8 +4.4
  Jan 16, 2025 189   @ Quinnipiac L 76-81 37%     8 - 9 5 - 1 -4.1 +4.1 -8.1
  Jan 18, 2025 228   Siena W 64-58 63%     9 - 9 6 - 1 -0.2 -3.8 +4.3
  Jan 23, 2025 292   @ St. Peter's W 48-37 58%     10 - 9 7 - 1 +6.4 -13.9 +22.4
  Jan 25, 2025 328   @ Fairfield W 75-54 69%     11 - 9 8 - 1 +13.3 +3.7 +11.3
  Jan 31, 2025 258   Mount St. Mary's L 58-66 69%     11 - 10 8 - 2 -15.9 -8.4 -8.7
  Feb 02, 2025 313   @ Rider W 66-64 65%     12 - 10 9 - 2 -4.5 -3.9 -0.5
  Feb 06, 2025 319   Niagara W 64-59 81%     13 - 10 10 - 2 -6.8 -12.9 +6.3
  Feb 08, 2025 354   Canisius W 69-51 89%     14 - 10 11 - 2 +1.9 -10.0 +13.1
  Feb 14, 2025 263   @ Manhattan L 75-79 51%     14 - 11 11 - 3 -6.9 +1.7 -8.8
  Feb 16, 2025 223   Marist L 60-61 62%     14 - 12 11 - 4 -6.8 -8.5 +1.6
  Feb 21, 2025 274   Sacred Heart L 59-60 73%     14 - 13 11 - 5 -9.9 -18.1 +8.2
  Feb 23, 2025 259   @ Iona W 64-63 49%    
  Feb 28, 2025 313   Rider W 68-59 81%    
  Mar 02, 2025 189   Quinnipiac W 68-66 58%    
  Mar 06, 2025 223   @ Marist L 59-61 41%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.5 7.0 10.5 1st
2nd 0.1 3.8 14.2 3.0 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 9.6 31.5 14.1 0.3 55.6 3rd
4th 0.8 7.1 1.2 9.1 4th
5th 1.4 1.6 3.0 5th
6th 0.7 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 3.1 18.4 36.5 31.8 10.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 68.1% 7.0    2.2 3.5 1.4
14-6 10.9% 3.5    0.2 1.1 2.1 0.2
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 10.5% 10.5 2.3 4.6 3.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 10.3% 26.6% 26.6% 15.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.3 7.6
14-6 31.8% 21.6% 21.6% 15.6 0.1 2.3 4.5 24.9
13-7 36.5% 17.6% 17.6% 15.8 1.2 5.3 30.1
12-8 18.4% 14.1% 14.1% 15.9 0.2 2.4 15.8
11-9 3.1% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.2 2.9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.5 5.6 12.7 81.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 15.0 0.4 16.1 71.4 12.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9%
Lose Out 1.2%