Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#228
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#222
Pace68.0#222
Improvement-1.4#314

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#335
First Shot-4.1#291
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#273
Layup/Dunks-4.2#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#285
Freethrows-0.4#206
Improvement-0.4#248

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#92
First Shot+1.7#127
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#114
Layups/Dunks+0.4#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#220
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#154
Freethrows+0.9#144
Improvement-1.0#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.4% 17.5% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 50.1% 74.5% 46.9%
.500 or above in Conference 79.7% 89.6% 78.4%
Conference Champion 17.2% 27.9% 15.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.7% 1.5%
First Four3.2% 1.7% 3.4%
First Round11.0% 16.9% 10.2%
Second Round0.4% 1.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 11.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 42 - 10
Quad 414 - 616 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 153   Vermont W 65-51 48%     1 - 0 +11.4 -0.2 +12.9
  Nov 13, 2024 60   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 42-63 9%     1 - 1 -9.2 -23.1 +14.2
  Nov 17, 2024 129   Princeton L 57-68 41%     1 - 2 -11.9 -7.2 -6.8
  Nov 20, 2024 43   @ Rutgers L 63-74 7%     1 - 3 +2.6 +0.0 +2.2
  Nov 22, 2024 85   @ Butler L 62-75 12%    
  Nov 25, 2024 156   @ Umass Lowell L 66-73 27%    
  Nov 27, 2024 273   Texas San Antonio W 72-70 59%    
  Nov 29, 2024 122   @ Troy L 63-72 20%    
  Dec 06, 2024 351   @ Canisius W 71-64 73%    
  Dec 08, 2024 304   @ Niagara W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 13, 2024 288   Boston University W 68-62 71%    
  Dec 17, 2024 74   @ Stanford L 59-73 9%    
  Dec 19, 2024 41   @ St. Mary's L 56-73 6%    
  Jan 03, 2025 274   Fairfield W 68-63 70%    
  Jan 10, 2025 325   @ Sacred Heart W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 12, 2025 329   Manhattan W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 16, 2025 225   @ Quinnipiac L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 307   Siena W 67-59 76%    
  Jan 23, 2025 180   @ St. Peter's L 59-64 32%    
  Jan 25, 2025 274   @ Fairfield L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 31, 2025 281   Mount St. Mary's W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 02, 2025 239   @ Rider L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 06, 2025 304   Niagara W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 351   Canisius W 74-61 87%    
  Feb 14, 2025 329   @ Manhattan W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 16, 2025 233   Marist W 66-63 62%    
  Feb 21, 2025 325   Sacred Heart W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 23, 2025 249   @ Iona L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 28, 2025 239   Rider W 69-65 62%    
  Mar 02, 2025 225   Quinnipiac W 70-67 59%    
  Mar 06, 2025 233   @ Marist L 63-66 41%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 1.6 3.4 4.7 4.1 1.9 0.9 0.2 17.2 1st
2nd 0.5 2.1 4.8 4.4 2.5 0.5 0.1 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.0 3.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 5.0 3.4 0.8 0.1 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.3 3.5 0.5 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.3 2.3 3.5 1.0 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 2.9 1.2 0.1 5.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.4 1.3 0.1 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.2 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.4 3.4 5.4 7.5 9.9 11.1 12.1 11.6 11.0 9.2 7.3 4.6 2.0 0.9 0.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 96.3% 1.9    1.8 0.2
17-3 89.0% 4.1    3.3 0.7 0.0
16-4 64.5% 4.7    2.9 1.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 37.1% 3.4    1.6 1.4 0.3 0.1
14-6 15.0% 1.6    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1
13-7 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 11.1 4.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 61.4% 61.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.9% 48.6% 48.6% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
18-2 2.0% 37.1% 37.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.3
17-3 4.6% 30.9% 30.9% 14.5 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 3.1
16-4 7.3% 26.7% 26.7% 15.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 5.4
15-5 9.2% 21.3% 21.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 7.2
14-6 11.0% 17.4% 17.4% 15.6 0.1 0.6 1.2 9.1
13-7 11.6% 12.5% 12.5% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 10.1
12-8 12.1% 9.1% 9.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 11.0
11-9 11.1% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 10.4
10-10 9.9% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.4 9.5
9-11 7.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 7.3
8-12 5.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.3
7-13 3.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.4
6-14 2.4% 2.4
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.8 5.9 87.6 0.0%