Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#283
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#227
Pace63.4#325
Improvement-1.2#265

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#288
First Shot-1.8#222
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#319
Layup/Dunks-4.2#313
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#84
Freethrows+1.3#104
Improvement-0.2#197

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#241
First Shot+2.1#101
After Offensive Rebounds-4.4#355
Layups/Dunks-0.9#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#83
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement-1.0#278
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.5% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 24.6% 30.5% 14.1%
.500 or above in Conference 51.6% 60.6% 35.7%
Conference Champion 2.2% 2.9% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 1.5% 5.8%
First Four1.2% 1.3% 1.1%
First Round2.5% 3.0% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 63.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 82 - 11
Quad 412 - 714 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 153 South Dakota St. L 66-75 26%     0 - 1 -9.0 -5.6 -3.3
  Thu, Nov 6 26 @Auburn L 57-95 2%     0 - 2 -20.8 -7.8 -14.4
  Tue, Nov 11 201 @Tarleton St. L 62-76 25%     0 - 3 -13.5 -13.3 +0.5
  Sat, Nov 15 253 @Boston University W 91-79 33%     1 - 3 +9.9 +21.3 -10.3
  Wed, Nov 19 328 Maine W 72-65 73%     2 - 3 -5.9 +6.2 -11.2
  Fri, Nov 21 14 @Florida L 45-80 1%     2 - 4 -14.0 -13.6 -2.7
  Fri, Nov 28 248 @Penn L 65-77 32%     2 - 5 -13.9 -8.5 -5.7
  Sat, Nov 29 139 Hofstra L 58-78 22%     2 - 6 -18.4 -9.2 -10.1
  Sun, Nov 30 225 La Salle W 66-60 40%     3 - 6 +2.2 -0.7 +3.5
  Thu, Dec 4 336 Rider W 68-66 75%     4 - 6 1 - 0 -11.6 -2.5 -8.9
  Sun, Dec 7 290 Fairfield W 71-67 64%    
  Wed, Dec 10 250 @Princeton L 64-69 33%    
  Sun, Dec 14 185 @Vermont L 64-72 23%    
  Mon, Dec 29 256 @Sacred Heart L 73-77 34%    
  Fri, Jan 2 304 Mount St. Mary's W 70-66 66%    
  Sun, Jan 4 308 Manhattan W 75-70 67%    
  Fri, Jan 9 156 @Siena L 62-71 20%    
  Sun, Jan 11 326 @St. Peter's W 66-65 50%    
  Sat, Jan 17 154 Quinnipiac L 70-74 38%    
  Mon, Jan 19 158 @Marist L 57-66 20%    
  Thu, Jan 22 176 @Iona L 70-78 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 326 St. Peter's W 68-62 71%    
  Sun, Feb 1 256 Sacred Heart W 76-74 56%    
  Thu, Feb 5 304 @Mount St. Mary's L 67-69 44%    
  Sat, Feb 7 336 @Rider W 67-66 54%    
  Thu, Feb 12 158 Marist L 60-63 39%    
  Sun, Feb 15 154 @Quinnipiac L 67-77 20%    
  Fri, Feb 20 156 Siena L 65-68 38%    
  Sun, Feb 22 176 Iona L 73-75 42%    
  Fri, Feb 27 355 @Canisius W 66-62 63%    
  Sun, Mar 1 342 @Niagara W 66-64 57%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.8 0.7 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.7 3.9 1.1 0.1 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.6 4.3 1.1 0.1 13.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 5.2 5.0 1.2 0.1 13.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.6 4.6 1.4 0.1 12.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.7 4.0 1.4 0.1 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.5 1.3 0.1 8.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 3.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.7 6.8 9.6 12.1 13.6 14.1 11.9 10.0 7.1 4.5 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 96.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 86.7% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 58.4% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 25.4% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.0% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 9.4% 9.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.5% 22.2% 22.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.2% 12.9% 12.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-5 2.2% 11.7% 11.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0
14-6 4.5% 9.9% 9.9% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 4.0
13-7 7.1% 8.2% 8.2% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 6.6
12-8 10.0% 5.1% 5.1% 15.8 0.1 0.4 9.4
11-9 11.9% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.4 11.5
10-10 14.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 13.8
9-11 13.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 13.5
8-12 12.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.0
7-13 9.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.6
6-14 6.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.8
5-15 3.7% 3.7
4-16 1.7% 1.7
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 96.9 0.0%