Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
178 St. Peter's 21.2%   16   1 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 10 14 - 6 -0.9      -2.7 256 +1.8 119 61.5 351 -2.7 220 0.0 1
217 Iona 13.7%   1 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 14 13 - 7 -2.7      -2.0 228 -0.8 191 68.8 195 -5.9 270 0.0 1
224 Quinnipiac 12.0%   2 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 14 12 - 8 -3.1      -3.2 269 +0.1 166 76.6 38 +2.2 157 0.0 1
230 Merrimack 11.8%   1 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 16 12 - 8 -3.4      -6.3 340 +2.9 89 68.0 222 -1.4 203 0.0 1
234 Marist 10.9%   3 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 -3.6      -1.2 208 -2.4 250 63.4 330 +1.5 170 0.0 1
240 Rider 9.9%   3 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 15 11 - 9 -3.9      -2.4 247 -1.5 226 69.4 172 +5.4 103 0.0 1
260 Mount St. Mary's 7.1%   2 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 10 -5.1      -4.0 290 -1.1 206 71.5 110 +7.9 77 0.0 1
274 Fairfield 5.8%   1 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 17 10 - 10 -5.8      -5.0 316 -0.8 193 70.0 160 -7.2 284 0.0 1
306 Siena 3.0%   3 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 11 -8.0      -5.4 324 -2.5 255 64.4 314 +3.4 130 0.0 1
327 Niagara 1.8%   0 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 12 -9.2      -3.8 284 -5.4 337 67.9 230 -17.2 352 0.0 1
328 Manhattan 1.7%   1 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 12 -9.5      -4.6 307 -4.9 324 69.8 163 -6.3 275 0.0 1
331 Sacred Heart 0.9%   1 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 21 7 - 13 -10.3      -2.9 262 -7.4 357 72.2 95 -14.0 336 0.0 1
351 Canisius 0.3%   0 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 25 5 - 15 -12.9      -5.3 321 -7.6 360 67.1 252 -18.6 360 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
St. Peter's 3.3 32.1 18.8 13.2 9.8 7.6 5.8 4.4 3.1 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.2
Iona 4.3 19.4 16.0 13.4 11.5 9.6 8.2 6.4 5.1 3.9 2.9 1.9 1.1 0.6
Quinnipiac 5.0 13.6 12.7 12.1 11.2 10.3 9.5 8.2 6.8 5.6 4.5 3.0 1.8 0.7
Merrimack 4.6 16.1 14.7 13.3 11.6 9.7 8.7 7.2 5.9 4.6 3.4 2.4 1.6 0.8
Marist 5.0 13.8 12.4 12.3 11.2 10.0 9.3 7.9 6.8 5.8 4.3 3.1 2.0 1.0
Rider 5.4 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.4 10.8 10.1 9.2 7.9 6.5 4.9 3.4 2.2 1.0
Mount St. Mary's 6.2 7.7 9.0 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.9 9.3 8.7 7.7 6.8 6.0 4.0 2.3
Fairfield 6.7 5.4 6.9 8.0 8.5 9.2 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.5 8.2 6.7 4.9 2.6
Siena 7.6 3.0 4.6 5.8 6.7 7.8 9.0 9.5 10.6 10.6 10.0 9.2 7.8 5.5
Niagara 8.7 1.7 2.6 3.5 4.7 5.8 7.0 8.0 9.4 11.0 12.0 12.8 11.8 9.8
Manhattan 8.9 1.4 2.5 3.3 4.3 5.4 6.5 7.6 9.2 10.3 12.1 12.8 13.7 11.2
Sacred Heart 9.5 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.0 4.1 5.5 6.9 8.9 11.0 12.8 14.4 15.4 13.9
Canisius 10.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.5 3.6 5.2 7.4 10.8 15.1 21.3 30.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
St. Peter's 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.4 4.0 5.8 8.1 9.9 11.8 12.9 12.8 11.3 9.1 5.8 2.6 0.7
Iona 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.1 4.5 6.5 8.4 10.4 11.8 12.1 12.0 10.1 7.9 5.4 3.0 1.2 0.3
Quinnipiac 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.8 4.7 6.4 8.4 10.1 11.6 12.0 11.6 10.3 8.1 5.5 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.1
Merrimack 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.2 7.4 9.4 10.7 12.0 12.1 10.9 9.4 6.9 4.3 2.3 0.9 0.2
Marist 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.5 6.5 8.5 9.9 11.1 12.0 11.5 10.0 8.2 5.6 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.2
Rider 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.3 7.4 9.5 11.3 12.3 12.0 11.1 9.0 6.9 4.4 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.4 5.4 7.2 8.8 10.4 11.2 11.4 10.4 9.3 7.4 5.2 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
Fairfield 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.2 6.2 8.7 10.4 11.8 11.8 11.1 9.6 7.9 5.8 3.9 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
Siena 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.3 6.3 8.6 10.6 11.7 11.9 11.0 9.6 7.6 5.8 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Niagara 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.4 4.7 6.8 9.4 11.4 12.1 11.8 10.8 8.8 7.5 5.3 3.6 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Manhattan 8 - 12 0.3 1.2 3.1 5.3 8.0 10.0 11.3 11.9 11.5 10.0 8.5 6.9 4.8 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 7 - 13 0.3 1.4 3.4 6.4 9.2 11.6 13.0 12.7 11.8 9.9 7.6 5.1 3.6 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Canisius 5 - 15 1.3 4.4 8.5 12.3 14.5 14.6 13.1 10.8 7.9 5.4 3.3 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. Peter's 32.1% 22.2 7.6 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Iona 19.4% 12.4 5.3 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Quinnipiac 13.6% 8.4 3.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Merrimack 16.1% 10.1 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Marist 13.8% 8.7 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rider 10.6% 6.3 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 7.7% 4.5 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Fairfield 5.4% 3.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Siena 3.0% 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Niagara 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Manhattan 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Canisius 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. Peter's 21.2% 21.2% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 5.3 6.4 5.3 78.8 0.0%
Iona 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 4.0 6.0 86.3 0.0%
Quinnipiac 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.7 4.3 3.6 88.0 0.0%
Merrimack 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.7 5.0 88.2 0.0%
Marist 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.7 3.7 89.1 0.0%
Rider 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.8 3.2 90.1 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.6 2.4 92.9 0.0%
Fairfield 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.7 94.2 0.0%
Siena 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.8 97.0 0.0%
Niagara 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 98.2 0.0%
Manhattan 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 98.3 0.0%
Sacred Heart 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%
Canisius 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. Peter's 21.2% 2.3% 20.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 13.7% 3.1% 12.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 12.0% 1.6% 11.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 11.8% 2.6% 10.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 10.9% 1.6% 10.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 9.9% 1.4% 9.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.1% 1.0% 6.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 5.8% 2.3% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 3.0% 1.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 1.8% 1.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 1.7% 0.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 90.2% 0.9 9.8 90.2
2nd Round 3.9% 0.0 96.1 3.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0