Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
198 Merrimack 21.9%   16   5 - 8 2 - 0 17 - 14 14 - 6 -1.6      -3.1 259 +1.5 124 64.2 306 -1.1 186 +7.9 3
210 St. Peter's 17.6%   4 - 5 0 - 2 16 - 11 12 - 8 -2.3      -2.7 247 +0.4 151 59.5 357 -2.3 204 -22.6 12
233 Marist 13.3%   7 - 2 2 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 7 -3.7      -2.8 249 -0.9 195 62.1 343 +1.5 144 +9.4 1
245 Quinnipiac 9.3%   4 - 6 2 - 0 14 - 16 12 - 8 -4.8      -3.8 285 -1.0 197 75.4 39 -4.8 243 +8.7 2
253 Mount St. Mary's 8.0%   6 - 4 1 - 1 16 - 14 11 - 9 -5.1      -3.4 274 -1.7 225 71.5 110 -1.3 188 -5.2 7
258 Iona 7.8%   3 - 8 1 - 1 14 - 17 11 - 9 -5.3      -4.9 310 -0.4 182 70.5 141 -6.8 282 -4.5 5
280 Fairfield 4.8%   4 - 6 1 - 1 13 - 17 9 - 11 -6.6      -1.4 209 -5.3 331 67.0 232 -5.4 259 -6.3 8
284 Sacred Heart 4.7%   4 - 7 1 - 1 13 - 17 10 - 10 -6.8      -3.1 261 -3.6 287 72.2 93 -7.0 287 -5.0 6
293 Manhattan 4.2%   4 - 5 1 - 1 13 - 15 9 - 11 -7.1      -1.1 203 -6.0 347 71.1 119 -5.1 251 -3.0 4
300 Rider 3.1%   4 - 8 0 - 2 12 - 19 8 - 12 -7.4      -3.5 275 -3.9 295 62.3 339 -7.8 299 -21.3 11
305 Siena 3.1%   5 - 7 1 - 1 13 - 18 9 - 11 -7.8      -5.2 321 -2.6 252 62.9 329 -5.0 249 -7.6 9
320 Niagara 2.0%   4 - 6 1 - 1 12 - 18 8 - 12 -8.9      -3.2 264 -5.7 342 61.4 348 -7.7 297 -7.7 10
350 Canisius 0.3%   0 - 12 0 - 2 5 - 26 5 - 15 -12.3      -4.4 297 -7.9 359 65.9 261 -20.9 364 -23.7 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Merrimack 2.6 42.7 20.4 12.7 8.2 5.8 3.8 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
St. Peter's 4.7 13.8 15.5 13.7 11.7 10.5 8.6 7.0 5.7 4.6 3.6 2.7 1.7 0.7
Marist 3.9 23.4 17.7 13.8 11.1 8.7 7.3 5.6 4.4 3.1 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.3
Quinnipiac 4.8 13.9 14.0 12.5 11.6 10.5 9.3 7.5 6.7 5.2 4.0 2.8 1.6 0.5
Mount St. Mary's 5.7 7.8 10.8 11.1 10.9 10.6 9.7 9.2 7.8 6.7 5.9 4.7 3.4 1.3
Iona 5.6 8.7 11.0 11.7 11.4 10.7 9.6 8.9 7.8 6.6 5.5 4.1 2.9 1.2
Fairfield 7.2 3.8 5.7 6.8 7.6 8.8 9.3 9.7 10.3 9.9 9.5 8.7 7.1 2.9
Sacred Heart 7.0 4.2 5.9 7.6 8.4 9.2 9.6 10.1 9.8 9.5 9.0 7.7 5.9 3.0
Manhattan 7.2 3.8 5.9 7.1 7.9 9.1 8.9 9.2 9.7 9.4 9.1 9.0 7.5 3.5
Rider 8.6 1.2 2.5 3.5 4.8 6.0 7.1 8.7 9.9 11.2 12.2 12.6 12.4 7.9
Siena 7.7 2.4 4.1 5.5 6.5 8.2 9.0 9.7 10.5 10.9 10.9 10.1 8.7 3.6
Niagara 8.7 1.2 2.5 3.5 4.6 6.1 7.1 8.3 9.6 11.1 11.8 13.0 13.0 8.3
Canisius 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 3.1 4.6 7.3 11.6 20.3 47.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Merrimack 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 4.4 7.4 11.0 13.5 15.4 15.5 12.9 8.8 4.8 2.0 0.3
St. Peter's 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.5 5.7 8.2 11.4 13.6 14.3 13.4 11.6 8.0 4.5 1.9 0.4
Marist 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.8 6.2 9.4 11.6 13.8 13.9 12.9 10.4 7.5 4.2 2.1 0.7 0.1
Quinnipiac 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.8 6.2 9.5 12.1 13.9 14.0 12.6 10.1 7.1 4.4 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.6 6.2 8.7 11.5 13.2 14.0 13.2 10.5 7.6 4.9 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1
Iona 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.6 8.4 11.2 13.0 14.1 13.4 11.3 8.1 5.2 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.1
Fairfield 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.4 7.3 10.2 12.5 13.9 13.6 11.8 9.2 6.5 4.0 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Sacred Heart 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.8 6.5 9.6 12.2 13.6 14.1 12.4 10.0 7.1 4.4 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Manhattan 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.5 4.6 7.4 10.1 12.3 13.4 13.2 11.4 9.4 6.5 4.2 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Rider 8 - 12 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 4.9 8.2 11.2 13.7 14.5 13.9 11.1 8.2 5.6 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Siena 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.3 8.5 11.7 14.0 14.5 13.6 10.8 7.6 5.0 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Niagara 8 - 12 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.1 8.6 11.3 14.0 14.2 13.5 11.0 8.1 5.2 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Canisius 5 - 15 1.1 4.6 9.5 14.2 16.6 16.4 13.7 10.1 6.4 3.8 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Merrimack 42.7% 30.9 9.0 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 13.8% 7.8 4.3 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Marist 23.4% 15.1 6.0 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Quinnipiac 13.9% 8.2 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 7.8% 4.1 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Iona 8.7% 4.5 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 3.8% 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 4.2% 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 3.8% 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rider 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Siena 2.4% 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Niagara 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Canisius 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Merrimack 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 8.5 8.5 78.1 0.0%
St. Peter's 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.5 6.7 5.8 82.4 0.0%
Marist 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.9 5.1 86.7 0.0%
Quinnipiac 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.6 5.9 90.7 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.5 92.0 0.0%
Iona 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.8 92.2 0.0%
Fairfield 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 95.2 0.0%
Sacred Heart 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 4.2 95.3 0.0%
Manhattan 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.2 95.8 0.0%
Rider 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.7 96.9 0.0%
Siena 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.6 96.9 0.0%
Niagara 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 98.0 0.0%
Canisius 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Merrimack 21.9% 3.4% 20.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 17.6% 2.1% 16.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 13.3% 1.9% 12.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 9.3% 3.4% 7.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 8.0% 2.0% 7.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 7.8% 3.9% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 4.8% 2.4% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 4.7% 3.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 4.2% 2.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 3.1% 2.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 3.1% 1.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 2.0% 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 85.6% 0.9 14.4 85.6
2nd Round 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0