Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
189 Quinnipiac 25.1%   16   15 - 10 12 - 3 18 - 12 15 - 5 -1.7      -2.9 249 +1.2 135 77.1 17 -1.9 194 +1.5 1
214 Merrimack 18.8%   14 - 13 11 - 5 16 - 15 13 - 7 -2.7      -6.0 328 +3.4 82 63.7 297 -3.2 216 -2.8 3
223 Marist 16.9%   19 - 5 12 - 3 22 - 7 15 - 5 -3.3      -4.1 286 +0.8 151 62.0 335 +1.0 149 +1.4 2
228 Siena 9.7%   13 - 14 8 - 8 16 - 15 11 - 9 -3.6      -2.5 241 -1.1 206 65.6 252 -4.7 242 -6.0 8
258 Mount St. Mary's 7.5%   15 - 10 9 - 6 18 - 12 12 - 8 -5.4      -4.3 291 -1.1 205 68.7 166 -2.1 199 -4.0 4
259 Iona 7.2%   12 - 15 9 - 7 14 - 17 11 - 9 -5.4      -6.2 331 +0.9 150 71.0 101 -5.9 268 -4.5 5
263 Manhattan 6.9%   12 - 11 8 - 7 15 - 13 11 - 9 -5.5      +0.2 168 -5.6 330 69.6 134 -5.0 250 -5.2 6
274 Sacred Heart 4.4%   11 - 14 8 - 7 13 - 17 10 - 10 -6.3      -1.7 218 -4.7 314 74.1 48 -6.6 281 -5.7 7
292 St. Peter's 1.4%   8 - 14 4 - 11 11 - 16 7 - 13 -7.2      -7.4 342 +0.2 171 60.1 356 -7.9 296 -12.0 12
313 Rider 0.9%   10 - 17 6 - 10 12 - 19 8 - 12 -9.1      -4.5 298 -4.6 310 63.5 305 -8.0 297 -9.1 10
319 Niagara 0.6%   9 - 16 5 - 10 11 - 19 7 - 13 -9.2      -3.8 276 -5.4 324 63.1 311 -9.7 319 -10.7 11
328 Fairfield 0.5%   9 - 17 6 - 10 10 - 20 7 - 13 -10.2      -4.6 301 -5.6 328 64.8 271 -8.7 306 -9.0 9
354 Canisius 0.0%   2 - 24 2 - 13 3 - 28 3 - 17 -13.6      -4.0 282 -9.6 360 65.2 259 -18.4 360 -16.7 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Quinnipiac 1.4 62.6 32.4 4.3 0.7 0.1
Merrimack 2.8 10.5 21.1 55.6 9.1 3.0 0.8 0.1
Marist 1.5 59.5 33.2 6.7 0.6 0.1
Siena 5.9 0.0 2.5 16.7 20.0 22.6 24.1 13.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 4.5 0.9 3.6 18.5 34.3 19.5 12.6 7.9 2.7 0.1
Iona 4.8 0.0 1.2 16.9 27.9 24.5 16.1 9.1 4.3 0.1
Manhattan 5.6 0.0 0.5 7.4 21.2 20.8 19.3 15.9 13.8 1.0 0.1
Sacred Heart 6.2 0.2 3.7 12.9 15.8 18.1 22.8 24.0 2.2 0.3
St. Peter's 10.7 0.1 1.7 16.5 26.8 25.0 28.9 1.0
Rider 9.3 0.1 0.6 2.5 10.4 55.4 20.7 8.3 2.2
Niagara 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 23.6 23.5 23.3 24.7 0.1
Fairfield 9.9 0.1 0.4 1.3 5.5 26.1 36.0 24.0 6.7
Canisius 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.8 4.5 94.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Quinnipiac 15 - 5 0.7 5.4 19.9 34.0 29.3 10.7
Merrimack 13 - 7 3.1 18.4 36.5 31.8 10.3
Marist 15 - 5 0.9 7.0 20.6 33.7 27.8 10.0
Siena 11 - 9 0.9 9.3 34.0 39.4 16.3
Mount St. Mary's 12 - 8 2.4 12.8 28.5 33.3 18.7 4.4
Iona 11 - 9 3.1 16.2 33.5 33.3 13.9
Manhattan 11 - 9 1.7 10.6 25.1 32.3 23.2 7.1
Sacred Heart 10 - 10 4.0 19.0 32.2 29.1 13.1 2.6
St. Peter's 7 - 13 1.9 14.0 31.7 35.0 15.1 2.3
Rider 8 - 12 5.7 29.3 42.8 19.5 2.8
Niagara 7 - 13 11.4 29.5 32.8 19.4 6.2 0.7
Fairfield 7 - 13 25.4 40.8 25.8 7.1 0.8
Canisius 3 - 17 27.5 38.4 24.2 8.4 1.4 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Quinnipiac 62.6% 35.2 23.8 3.5 0.2 0.0
Merrimack 10.5% 2.3 4.6 3.4 0.2 0.0
Marist 59.5% 33.0 22.9 3.4 0.2 0.0
Siena
Mount St. Mary's 0.9% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
Iona 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 0.0% 0.0
Sacred Heart
St. Peter's
Rider
Niagara
Fairfield
Canisius


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Quinnipiac 25.1% 25.1% 0.0% 16   0.6 3.0 11.0 10.5 74.9 0.0%
Merrimack 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 5.6 12.7 81.2 0.0%
Marist 16.9% 16.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.4 6.9 8.6 83.1 0.0%
Siena 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.3 3.0 6.4 90.3 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.4 6.0 92.5 0.0%
Iona 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.6 6.5 92.9 0.0%
Manhattan 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 5.5 93.1 0.0%
Sacred Heart 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.3 4.1 95.6 0.0%
St. Peter's 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 98.6 0.0%
Rider 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9 99.1 0.0%
Niagara 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Fairfield 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Canisius 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Quinnipiac 25.1% 2.6% 24.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 18.8% 5.6% 16.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 16.9% 3.0% 15.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 9.7% 2.9% 8.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.5% 3.2% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 7.2% 4.6% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 6.9% 3.2% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 4.4% 3.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 84.6% 0.8 15.4 84.6
2nd Round 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0