Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.1#313
Expected Predictive Rating-8.0#297
Pace63.5#305
Improvement-0.2#197

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#298
First Shot-9.0#359
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#6
Layup/Dunks-5.9#344
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#6
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.8#360
Freethrows-1.0#244
Improvement+0.2#177

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#310
First Shot-3.4#285
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#288
Layups/Dunks-2.0#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#328
Freethrows+2.3#47
Improvement-0.3#201
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.5% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.8% 10.5% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.9% 1.5% 0.8%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Away) - 26.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 411 - 1312 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 27   @ UCLA L 50-85 2%     0 - 1 -17.7 -8.9 -11.8
  Nov 06, 2024 314   @ San Diego W 68-67 40%     1 - 1 -5.6 -7.6 +2.0
  Nov 09, 2024 362   @ Coppin St. W 64-53 74%     2 - 1 -4.9 -10.5 +5.9
  Nov 12, 2024 283   @ Navy W 90-79 32%     3 - 1 +6.7 +16.9 -10.1
  Nov 19, 2024 61   @ Iowa L 58-83 4%     3 - 2 -13.2 -14.5 +2.0
  Nov 23, 2024 232   @ Bucknell W 57-53 23%     4 - 2 +2.7 -6.7 +10.0
  Nov 27, 2024 43   @ Villanova L 48-72 3%     4 - 3 -9.7 -11.8 -2.2
  Nov 30, 2024 244   Delaware L 66-72 42%     4 - 4 -13.0 -6.3 -7.5
  Dec 04, 2024 328   @ Fairfield L 75-78 45%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -10.7 +2.4 -13.3
  Dec 06, 2024 189   Quinnipiac L 67-72 32%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -9.2 +0.4 -10.1
  Dec 14, 2024 320   Stony Brook L 55-72 61%     4 - 7 -28.9 -15.4 -16.7
  Dec 20, 2024 260   @ Penn L 66-79 28%     4 - 8 -15.8 -1.1 -16.4
  Dec 22, 2024 103   @ North Carolina St. L 63-89 8%     4 - 9 -19.2 -2.8 -17.6
  Jan 05, 2025 263   Manhattan L 79-80 46%     4 - 10 0 - 3 -9.0 +1.6 -10.6
  Jan 10, 2025 354   @ Canisius L 67-85 58%     4 - 11 0 - 4 -29.0 -6.1 -25.1
  Jan 12, 2025 319   @ Niagara W 68-65 41%     5 - 11 1 - 4 -3.7 -1.2 -2.1
  Jan 16, 2025 258   Mount St. Mary's W 66-60 46%     6 - 11 2 - 4 -1.9 -12.6 +10.3
  Jan 18, 2025 223   @ Marist W 64-57 21%     7 - 11 3 - 4 +6.3 -1.3 +8.1
  Jan 23, 2025 259   Iona L 67-73 46%     7 - 12 3 - 5 -13.9 -4.0 -10.1
  Jan 25, 2025 189   @ Quinnipiac L 64-75 18%     7 - 13 3 - 6 -10.1 -4.1 -6.4
  Jan 31, 2025 292   St. Peter's W 67-64 53%     8 - 13 4 - 6 -6.7 +4.8 -11.0
  Feb 02, 2025 214   Merrimack L 64-66 35%     8 - 14 4 - 7 -7.2 -0.7 -6.7
  Feb 06, 2025 274   @ Sacred Heart L 77-89 31%     8 - 15 4 - 8 -15.8 -0.6 -15.0
  Feb 08, 2025 228   Siena W 61-59 39%     9 - 15 5 - 8 -4.2 -5.8 +1.9
  Feb 14, 2025 259   @ Iona W 74-71 27%     10 - 15 6 - 8 +0.2 +5.5 -5.2
  Feb 16, 2025 292   @ St. Peter's L 65-66 33%     10 - 16 6 - 9 -5.6 +3.7 -9.5
  Feb 21, 2025 328   Fairfield L 49-69 64%     10 - 17 6 - 10 -32.8 -24.7 -10.5
  Feb 23, 2025 258   @ Mount St. Mary's L 66-72 27%    
  Feb 28, 2025 214   @ Merrimack L 59-68 19%    
  Mar 06, 2025 354   Canisius W 74-67 76%    
  Mar 08, 2025 319   Niagara W 69-66 63%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.6 6th
7th 1.2 1.3 2.5 7th
8th 2.0 7.6 0.8 10.4 8th
9th 0.1 9.3 35.3 10.7 0.1 55.4 9th
10th 1.0 14.4 5.2 0.1 20.7 10th
11th 2.7 5.3 0.3 8.3 11th
12th 1.9 0.3 2.2 12th
13th 13th
Total 5.7 29.3 42.8 19.5 2.8 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 2.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.7
9-11 19.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.4 19.1
8-12 42.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.4 42.4
7-13 29.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 29.2
6-14 5.7% 5.7
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 5.4%