Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -14.0 354
Expected Predictive Rating -19.0 360
Pace 63.3 324
Improvement +1.2 134

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #334 F C- C- D F+
Defense D- #353 F+ D+ F+ B- F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 198 48% 358 -4.3 321
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 13 36% 225 +4.5 19
Three Pointers 29% 359 28% 360 -8.9 362
1st FG Attempt 0.84 362 -8.8 362
Second Chance 31.7% 147 0.92 318 0.29 226
Turnovers 17.9% 248
Freethrows 0.27 293 69% 285 0.19 308
Total Offense -6.6 334

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 6 59% 210 -5.5 341
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 355 43% 331 +1.9 42
Three Pointers 39% 243 40% 365 -3.0 307
1st FG Attempt 1.15 353 -6.5 353
Second Chance 33.5% 303 1.03 192 0.35 262
Turnovers 13.3% 344
Freethrows 0.28 120 67% 11 0.19 68
Total Defense -7.4 353

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.7 345 +1.5 362
Shot Type Accuracy -7.2 361 +4.8 340
Possession Length 19.7 360 16.6 61
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 274 0.23 336
Improvement +6.2 #4 -5.0 #359

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 76% 60% 85%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Home) - 36.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 00 - 4
Quad 30 - 70 - 11
Quad 44 - 134 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 23 @Virginia L 53 - 87 1% -17  0% 0 - 1 F+ -15 D- -8 D C F F+ -10 C F F
 Wed, Nov 5 122 @Rutgers L 53 - 81 4% -14  1% 0 - 2 F -22 F -17 F C F+ D -6 C- D+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 30 @Texas L 65 - 99 1% -18  0% 0 - 3 F+ -16 F -10 F D+ C- D+ -4 F A+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 5 @Houston L 45 - 91 0% -25  0% 0 - 4 F -20 F -16 F+ D F D -6 F A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 364 Coppin St. L 65 - 68 79% +5  79% 0 - 5 F -26 F -21 F F D- D+ -4 C- D- C
 Thu, Dec 4 182 @Merrimack L 66 - 68 8% -1  27% 0 - 6 0 - 1 C -0 C +0 C- A+ F C -1 F A- F+
 Sun, Dec 7 195 @Quinnipiac L 58 - 72 9% -15  0% 0 - 7 0 - 2 D- -13 F -14 F D D+ C +0 C+ D- F
 Tue, Dec 9 324 Bucknell L 38 - 51 47% -8  0% 0 - 8 F -26 F -37 F F F A- +9 B- A D+
 Tue, Dec 16 279 @Delaware L 57 - 65 17% -6  3% 0 - 9 D- -12 F -13 F A C C+ +0 C+ C+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 79 - 100 1% -11  11% 0 - 10 D+ -7 B +7 D+ A+ B F -13 F F D
 Mon, Dec 29 323 Manhattan L 71 - 74 47% +2  75% 0 - 11 0 - 3 F+ -16 F+ -9 F C+ D- D- -8 C- F+ C-
 Sun, Jan 4 181 Siena L 65 - 74 18% -7  12% 0 - 12 0 - 4 D- -13 C- -2 D+ D- A+ F -13 C- F B-
 Fri, Jan 9 262 @Fairfield L 62 - 68 15% -8  1% 0 - 13 0 - 5 D -9 F+ -9 D+ F C- C -1 A+ F F
 Sun, Jan 11 163 Marist L 49 - 71 16% -12  2% 0 - 14 0 - 6 F -25 F -20 F D- C+ D -6 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 247 Iona W 72 - 68 27% +7  91% 1 - 14 1 - 6 C- -4 B- +5 D+ A+ C- D- -8 C- B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 228 @St. Peter's L 58 - 69 11% -4  12% 1 - 15 1 - 7 D- -12 F+ -9 F B+ F D+ -4 F F+ D-
 Mon, Jan 19 287 Sacred Heart L 85 - 105 36% -12  1% 1 - 16 1 - 8 F -30 D- -6 D F A F -22 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 289 @Mount St. Mary's L 61 - 71 19% -0  50% 1 - 17 1 - 9 F+ -14 D -6 F A C+ F+ -10 F D+ D
 Fri, Jan 30 323 @Manhattan L 90 - 95 26% -2  20% 1 - 18 1 - 10 D- -12 A +12 C+ C+ A+ F -24 F D+ F+
 Sun, Feb 1 228 St. Peter's W 81 - 78 24% -6  2% 2 - 18 2 - 10 C- -4 A- +10 A+ F B F -13 D- F F
 Thu, Feb 5 163 @Marist L 52 - 81 7% -18  3% 2 - 19 2 - 11 F -26 D- -7 F C+ C F -25 F D+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 182 Merrimack L 47 - 73 18% -16  0% 2 - 20 2 - 12 F -30 F -19 F D+ A F -17 F F B
 Fri, Feb 13 289 Mount St. Mary's L 68 - 71 36%
 Sun, Feb 15 287 @Sacred Heart L 70 - 80 18%
 Fri, Feb 20 346 Canisius W 67 - 66 54%
 Sun, Feb 22 335 Niagara W 66 - 65 51%
 Fri, Feb 27 247 @Iona L 66 - 78 12%
 Sun, Mar 1 181 @Siena L 61 - 77 7%
Totals 4 - 24 4 - 16 -14 D -7 F C- C- D- -7 F+ D+ F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D F+ C- F F+ 38% 34% 29% F+ F C+ D C- C- D D+ D D- C- D- F D- 47% 14% 39% F F+ D+ C D+ F+ C+ A B-
0.99 48% 36% 28% -7 -2 0.84 32% 0.9 .29 18% .27 69% .19 1.19 59% 43% 40% +5 +1 1.15 34% 1.0 .35 13% .28 67% .18
Nov
3		 Virginia D- D F C+ C- 33% 45% 23% F D B+ F+ C F A+ F A+ F+ D- F+ A C+ 47% 9% 45% D- C F D+ F F F A+ F
0.83 46% 28% 33% -9 -4 0.78 33% 0.7 .23 22% .58 62% .36 1.36 68% 50% 29% +2 +2 1.11 54% 1.2 .63 9% .59 56% .33
Nov
5		 Rutgers F F F F F 38% 30% 32% D+ F A+ F C F+ A A A+ D A+ C- D- B- 42% 11% 47% F C- F A- D+ F F A F
0.80 44% 14% 13% -22 -1 0.55 44% 0.7 .31 21% .34 83% .29 1.22 42% 40% 38% -4 +1 0.98 44% 1.0 .42 11% .55 64% .35
Nov
18		 Texas F F C- C- D- 25% 43% 32% F F D+ C- D+ C- D A+ B- D+ F F D F 39% 9% 53% F+ F A+ A A+ F F A+ D+
0.87 36% 33% 33% -8 -4 0.79 21% 0.9 .19 16% .29 89% .25 1.32 82% 60% 37% +13 +2 1.32 18% 1.0 .18 8% .49 65% .32
Nov
20		 Houston F F F+ F F 40% 27% 33% C+ F+ B F D F F A+ C- D F F F F 38% 26% 36% F+ F A A+ A+ C- A+ F A+
0.67 44% 25% 20% -16 -1 0.69 33% 0.6 .19 34% .20 100% .20 1.35 77% 53% 48% +19 -1 1.38 31% 0.7 .21 10% .12 100% .12
Nov
25		 Coppin St. F F F C F 51% 20% 29% C+ F B- F F D- A+ C- A+ D+ B- B- C C 58% 25% 17% F C- F B+ D- C C A+ A-
0.92 32% 30% 36% -14 +1 0.76 40% 0.4 .18 20% .56 75% .42 0.96 50% 31% 33% -7 +1 0.90 43% 0.8 .36 23% .33 50% .16
Dec
4		 Merrimack C F A+ D D+ 52% 25% 23% C+ C- A- A A+ F C- F D C C+ F D- F 34% 12% 54% C+ F A+ C A- F+ A+ A+ A+
1.05 43% 55% 30% -5 0 0.93 48% 1.2 .59 24% .33 63% .21 1.08 53% 67% 37% +4 +1 1.12 15% 1.0 .15 13% .20 64% .13
Dec
7		 Quinnipiac F F C- A+ D 26% 50% 24% F F D+ D D D+ F F F C A C+ C- B+ 59% 11% 30% F C+ D+ F+ D- F A+ B A+
0.85 36% 33% 46% -4 -5 0.85 30% 0.9 .27 19% .14 50% .07 1.05 45% 33% 35% -7 +3 0.93 33% 1.2 .41 12% .15 67% .10
Dec
9		 Bucknell F F C+ F F 34% 34% 32% F+ F F F F F F F F A- C+ A- A+ B 46% 8% 46% F B- A- A A D+ A+ C+ A+
0.62 36% 43% 23% -11 -2 0.76 17% 0.7 .11 25% .20 33% .07 0.84 55% 25% 23% -10 +2 0.85 19% 0.8 .16 18% .16 75% .12
Dec
16		 Delaware F F C+ F F 34% 20% 46% B- F C- A+ A C F A+ D- C+ B F C+ B 53% 12% 35% F C+ B+ D- C+ F+ F D- F
0.91 41% 40% 17% -17 0 0.68 28% 1.5 .41 14% .17 100% .17 1.04 52% 60% 33% -1 +2 1.05 15% 1.0 .15 14% .37 80% .30
Dec
22		 Virginia Commonwealth B C B F C 42% 40% 19% F D+ B+ A+ A+ B A+ C A+ F F C F F 54% 9% 38% F+ F C F F D B- D C+
1.09 55% 43% 20% -3 -2 0.91 36% 1.4 .49 15% .41 72% .29 1.39 70% 40% 43% +12 +3 1.30 34% 1.5 .52 12% .35 77% .27
Dec
29		 Manhattan F+ F+ D+ F F 44% 22% 34% C F A- D C+ D- C F D D- A+ F D+ C 40% 17% 43% D- C- F B+ F+ C- F B- F
1.08 50% 36% 29% -6 0 0.90 45% 1.0 .45 18% .24 62% .15 1.13 32% 75% 35% -4 +1 0.96 41% 0.9 .36 15% .49 78% .38
Jan
4		 Siena C- C+ A+ F D+ 36% 28% 36% D+ D+ C F D- A+ D+ A+ C+ F A+ F F B 66% 12% 22% F C- F C- F B- F C+ F
1.09 61% 64% 17% -1 -1 0.98 31% 0.6 .20 12% .25 85% .21 1.24 44% 60% 44% -3 +3 1.02 55% 1.0 .55 18% .45 73% .33
Jan
9		 Fairfield F+ C A+ F C 39% 33% 29% F D+ D F F C- B+ F D+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 13% 45% F A+ F+ F F F F D+ F
0.99 58% 50% 29% +2 -2 1.02 26% 0.3 .08 16% .34 56% .19 1.09 30% 17% 24% -21 +1 0.62 39% 1.4 .52 10% .39 73% .28
Jan
11		 Marist F B F F F+ 31% 58% 11% F F F A+ D- C+ B- F D D C+ B- F F+ 48% 20% 32% F F B- A+ A+ F A+ D A+
0.74 64% 27% 0% -10 -5 0.71 9% 2.3 .20 18% .39 57% .22 1.07 56% 36% 44% +4 +1 1.11 23% 0.5 .11 14% .10 83% .09
Jan
14		 Iona B- D+ F A+ C 41% 36% 23% F D+ A+ B+ A+ C- A+ C+ A+ D- C- A+ D+ C 32% 6% 62% F+ C- C+ B B- F B A+ A+
1.19 56% 29% 44% 0 -2 0.97 47% 1.1 .53 17% .55 71% .40 1.12 59% 0% 36% 0 +1 1.06 24% 0.9 .21 7% .21 42% .09
Jan
17		 St. Peter's F+ D- C- F F+ 43% 43% 13% F F A+ F+ B+ F F D+ F D+ D- F A F 33% 33% 33% A F F C+ F+ D- B+ A+ A+
0.93 50% 35% 17% -8 -3 0.80 53% 0.9 .47 27% .31 71% .22 1.11 63% 56% 25% +3 -2 1.04 46% 0.9 .43 14% .26 50% .13
Jan
19		 Sacred Heart D- D D+ A- D 47% 22% 31% C- D F F F A D+ F D F F B+ F F 41% 13% 46% F+ F A+ A+ A+ F F A D-
1.10 57% 36% 40% +2 0 1.06 22% 0.9 .20 10% .25 65% .16 1.36 78% 29% 58% +24 +1 1.52 14% 0.8 .10 12% .38 69% .26
Jan
24		 Mount St. Mary's D F F F F 36% 40% 23% F F A+ B- A C+ B- B+ B F+ D+ C+ F F 46% 8% 46% F+ F C- D D+ D F A- F
1.00 29% 26% 27% -17 -3 0.62 41% 1.1 .46 13% .36 79% .28 1.16 61% 33% 44% +8 +2 1.23 30% 1.1 .33 20% .47 61% .29
Jan
30		 Manhattan A B+ D- B+ C+ 48% 23% 29% C C+ C+ C+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ F F A+ F F 37% 10% 53% F F D- C D+ F+ F F F
1.34 68% 33% 40% +6 0 1.15 39% 1.2 .45 9% .49 67% .33 1.41 67% 20% 50% +14 +1 1.33 31% 1.0 .31 12% .37 95% .35
Feb
1		 St. Peter's A- B- A- A+ A+ 30% 37% 33% F A+ F+ F F B B A+ A+ F A- D+ F F+ 31% 24% 45% B- D- D F F F B+ A A
1.24 62% 44% 64% +18 -3 1.33 27% 0.6 .15 17% .44 92% .41 1.20 44% 42% 39% 0 -1 1.00 39% 1.4 .53 12% .26 67% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Marist D- F B F F 35% 37% 28% F+ F A F C+ C F F F F D- D F F 48% 19% 33% F F F A+ D+ D- A F B
0.88 44% 41% 15% -12 -2 0.74 41% 0.8 .32 19% .19 44% .08 1.37 65% 44% 63% +19 +1 1.42 36% 0.9 .32 15% .16 100% .16
Feb
7		 Merrimack F F C- F F 32% 41% 27% F F F+ B+ D+ A A+ F C F F F C- F 59% 10% 31% F F F F F B F C+ F
0.82 14% 39% 17% -21 -3 0.55 33% 1.1 .37 14% .47 52% .24 1.27 70% 50% 33% +8 +3 1.23 45% 1.3 .60 19% .45 76% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.8 0.3 1.0 10th
11th 4.4 9.9 3.9 0.2 18.4 11th
12th 3.4 15.9 7.3 0.4 27.0 12th
13th 11.1 27.4 13.3 1.3 0.0 53.2 13th
Total 11.1 30.8 33.6 18.5 5.1 0.8 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13 0.8% 0.8
6-14 5.1% 5.1
5-15 18.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.5
4-16 33.6% 33.6
3-17 30.8% 30.8
2-18 11.1% 11.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 11.1%