Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.5#335
Expected Predictive Rating-23.2#365
Pace67.5#236
Improvement+1.1#100

Offense
Total Offense-6.6#342
First Shot-6.1#331
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#206
Layup/Dunks-3.6#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#347
Freethrows+1.6#98
Improvement+0.6#135

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#306
First Shot-3.1#284
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#247
Layups/Dunks-3.9#310
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#273
Freethrows+3.4#20
Improvement+0.5#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.4% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.0% 7.6% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 14.8% 35.1% 12.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 1.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 21.2% 7.7% 22.6%
First Four0.6% 1.2% 0.5%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Away) - 9.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 47 - 108 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 26 @Virginia L 53-87 1%     0 - 1 -16.6 -8.8 -10.9
  Wed, Nov 5 120 @Rutgers L 53-81 7%     0 - 2 -21.9 -13.2 -10.0
  Tue, Nov 18 50 @Texas L 65-99 2%     0 - 3 -20.3 -7.8 -10.3
  Thu, Nov 20 7 @Houston L 45-91 1%     0 - 4 -23.1 -13.6 -11.4
  Tue, Nov 25 364 Coppin St. L 65-68 81%     0 - 5 -23.0 -16.5 -6.5
  Thu, Dec 4 277 @Merrimack L 66-68 25%     0 - 6 0 - 1 -5.4 -0.2 -5.4
  Sun, Dec 7 154 @Quinnipiac L 67-81 10%    
  Tue, Dec 9 304 Bucknell W 71-70 52%    
  Tue, Dec 16 287 @Delaware L 67-74 27%    
  Mon, Dec 22 43 @Virginia Commonwealth L 59-84 1%    
  Mon, Dec 29 310 Manhattan W 75-74 52%    
  Sun, Jan 4 161 Siena L 64-71 25%    
  Fri, Jan 9 294 @Fairfield L 68-74 29%    
  Sun, Jan 11 159 Marist L 60-67 26%    
  Wed, Jan 14 174 Iona L 73-79 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 329 @St. Peter's L 65-69 36%    
  Mon, Jan 19 255 Sacred Heart L 76-78 42%    
  Sat, Jan 24 307 @Mount St. Mary's L 68-73 31%    
  Fri, Jan 30 310 @Manhattan L 72-77 32%    
  Sun, Feb 1 329 St. Peter's W 68-66 57%    
  Thu, Feb 5 159 @Marist L 57-70 12%    
  Sat, Feb 7 277 Merrimack L 67-68 46%    
  Fri, Feb 13 307 Mount St. Mary's W 71-70 51%    
  Sun, Feb 15 255 @Sacred Heart L 73-81 23%    
  Fri, Feb 20 353 Canisius W 68-63 69%    
  Sun, Feb 22 347 Niagara W 68-64 64%    
  Fri, Feb 27 174 @Iona L 70-82 14%    
  Sun, Mar 1 161 @Siena L 61-74 12%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.4 2.3 0.3 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.3 2.9 0.6 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.7 4.6 0.9 0.1 11.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 4.9 5.6 1.8 0.1 0.0 13.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.4 5.4 2.0 0.1 0.0 15.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 2.8 5.3 5.0 2.1 0.3 16.2 12th
13th 0.3 1.4 3.2 4.3 2.9 1.2 0.2 13.5 13th
Total 0.3 1.5 3.8 7.4 10.4 13.2 13.9 13.7 12.3 8.6 6.5 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 56.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-5 31.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 0.1
15-5 0.2% 21.1% 21.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.6% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
13-7 1.1% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.1 1.0
12-8 2.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 2.2
11-9 4.1% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 3.9
10-10 6.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.4
9-11 8.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.6
8-12 12.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.2
7-13 13.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.7
6-14 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-15 13.2% 13.2
4-16 10.4% 10.4
3-17 7.4% 7.4
2-18 3.8% 3.8
1-19 1.5% 1.5
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%