North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#103
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#156
Pace63.4#307
Improvement-4.9#342

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#123
First Shot+0.1#169
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#102
Layup/Dunks+5.3#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#334
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement-3.1#318

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#97
First Shot+2.8#84
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#200
Layups/Dunks-2.6#283
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#31
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#18
Freethrows-1.6#286
Improvement-1.8#283
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.3% 0.8% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.3% 6.5% 25.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Home) - 38.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 8
Quad 21 - 81 - 16
Quad 33 - 34 - 19
Quad 48 - 012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 345   South Carolina Upstate W 97-66 95%     1 - 0 +16.1 +9.4 +4.6
  Nov 08, 2024 270   Presbyterian W 81-72 88%     2 - 0 +0.7 +6.5 -5.4
  Nov 13, 2024 312   Coastal Carolina W 82-70 92%     3 - 0 +0.4 +2.0 -1.7
  Nov 18, 2024 239   Colgate W 72-49 85%     4 - 0 +16.2 -8.4 +23.9
  Nov 22, 2024 216   William & Mary W 84-61 82%     5 - 0 +17.5 +0.7 +15.1
  Nov 28, 2024 16   Purdue L 61-71 11%     5 - 1 +7.5 +5.1 +0.6
  Nov 29, 2024 26   BYU L 61-72 16%     5 - 2 +3.9 -1.9 +4.8
  Dec 04, 2024 36   Texas L 59-63 28%     5 - 3 +6.2 +1.2 +4.2
  Dec 07, 2024 82   Florida St. W 84-74 OT 50%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +14.3 +16.5 -2.1
  Dec 10, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 66-56 98%     7 - 3 -11.0 -5.6 -4.4
  Dec 14, 2024 19   @ Kansas L 60-75 9%     7 - 4 +3.7 +6.6 -4.8
  Dec 22, 2024 313   Rider W 89-63 92%     8 - 4 +14.4 +14.5 +1.1
  Dec 31, 2024 93   @ Virginia L 67-70 37%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +4.7 +10.8 -6.6
  Jan 04, 2025 55   @ Wake Forest L 59-77 20%     8 - 6 1 - 2 -4.9 +1.2 -7.9
  Jan 08, 2025 95   Notre Dame W 66-65 57%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +3.6 +3.9 -0.1
  Jan 11, 2025 40   North Carolina L 61-63 30%     9 - 7 2 - 3 +7.6 -1.6 +9.0
  Jan 15, 2025 128   @ Virginia Tech L 76-79 50%     9 - 8 2 - 4 +1.3 +13.3 -12.4
  Jan 18, 2025 112   California L 62-65 64%     9 - 9 2 - 5 -2.3 -4.0 +1.3
  Jan 25, 2025 37   SMU L 57-63 29%     9 - 10 2 - 6 +4.0 -8.4 +11.9
  Jan 27, 2025 2   @ Duke L 64-74 3%     9 - 11 2 - 7 +16.1 +4.9 +10.9
  Feb 01, 2025 23   Clemson L 58-68 20%     9 - 12 2 - 8 +3.0 -0.5 +2.1
  Feb 05, 2025 112   @ California L 62-74 44%     9 - 13 2 - 9 -6.2 -6.4 -0.5
  Feb 08, 2025 88   @ Stanford L 73-74 33%     9 - 14 2 - 10 +7.9 +5.6 +2.3
  Feb 12, 2025 21   Louisville L 66-91 20%     9 - 15 2 - 11 -11.8 +0.3 -12.6
  Feb 15, 2025 174   Boston College W 70-62 76%     10 - 15 3 - 11 +4.8 -1.4 +6.6
  Feb 19, 2025 40   @ North Carolina L 73-97 16%     10 - 16 3 - 12 -9.3 +6.9 -16.5
  Feb 22, 2025 55   Wake Forest L 64-68 38%    
  Feb 26, 2025 108   @ Syracuse L 70-72 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 99   @ Georgia Tech L 68-71 37%    
  Mar 05, 2025 52   Pittsburgh L 68-72 37%    
  Mar 08, 2025 152   @ Miami (FL) W 74-73 53%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.3 9th
10th 0.2 0.6 0.8 10th
11th 1.8 0.5 2.3 11th
12th 0.3 3.6 0.1 4.0 12th
13th 2.8 3.2 5.9 13th
14th 0.5 9.2 1.1 10.7 14th
15th 7.0 8.3 0.1 15.4 15th
16th 0.9 14.8 24.0 2.4 42.1 16th
17th 3.3 8.4 1.5 13.3 17th
18th 4.2 0.8 0.1 5.1 18th
Total 8.5 24.0 33.0 23.0 9.9 1.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 1.6% 1.6
7-13 9.9% 9.9
6-14 23.0% 23.0
5-15 33.0% 33.0
4-16 24.0% 24.0
3-17 8.5% 8.5
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 8.5%