North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +15.4 27
Expected Predictive Rating +14.4 36
Pace 72.5 77
Improvement -2.4 279

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- #23 A- B- A B- B-
Defense B #43 C+ B+ A- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 140 65% 42 +3.8 56
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 286 35% 262 -2.3 293
Three Pointers 44% 118 39% 11 +5.5 30
1st FG Attempt 1.16 23 +7.0 23
Second Chance 29.6% 208 1.25 8 0.37 71
Turnovers 12.6% 8
Freethrows 0.32 133 76% 50 0.25 97
Total Offense +9.6 23

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 268 52% 46 +3.7 64
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 330 35% 87 +2.4 20
Three Pointers 49% 14 34% 193 -4.2 337
1st FG Attempt 0.98 115 +1.9 115
Second Chance 25.4% 27 0.97 96 0.25 39
Turnovers 21.0% 17
Freethrows 0.30 185 68% 21 0.21 127
Total Defense +5.8 43

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.7 82 +0.5 256
Shot Type Accuracy +6.0 29 -2.3 86
Possession Length 15.4 30 18.3 324
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 58 0.17 175
Improvement -1.2 #261 -1.2 #260

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 4% 6% 1%
Top 6 Seed 30% 36% 15%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98% 99% 95%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97% 99% 95%
Average Seed 7.2 7.0 7.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 2% 3% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 0% 2%
First Round97% 99% 94%
Second Round59% 62% 52%
Sweet Sixteen18% 20% 13%
Elite Eight6% 7% 4%
Final Four2% 2% 1%
Championship Game1% 1% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Home) - 69.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 8
Quad 210 - 115 - 9
Quad 34 - 019 - 10
Quad 44 - 123 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 339 NC Central W 114 - 65 99% +28  99% 1 - 0 A+ +34 A+ +26 A+ A+ A+ B+ +6 C- C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 118 UAB W 94 - 70 92% +11  85% 2 - 0 A+ +24 A +13 A+ A+ D A- +9 B+ C+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 302 UNC Greensboro W 110 - 64 98% +15  90% 3 - 0 A+ +35 A+ +20 B+ A+ A+ A +12 A+ B A
 Mon, Nov 17 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 85 - 79 76% +4  93% 4 - 0 B+ +14 B+ +8 C+ A+ F B +6 B B C+
 Mon, Nov 24 53 Seton Hall L 74 - 85 69% -8  3% 4 - 1 C -1 B- +4 B D A+ D+ -4 D F+ B+
 Tue, Nov 25 58 Boise St. W 81 - 70 72% +5  82% 5 - 1 A +20 B+ +9 A+ D- B A +11 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 30 Texas L 97 - 102 53% -4  14% 5 - 2 B +10 A+ +22 A A+ A+ F -12 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 28 @Auburn L 73 - 83 39% -5  14% 5 - 3 B +8 C+ +3 C+ F A+ B +6 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 211 UNC Asheville W 75 - 63 96% +3  66% 6 - 3 B- +6 C- -0 D+ A+ D+ B+ +7 A- B- B
 Wed, Dec 10 95 Liberty W 85 - 45 88% +25  97% 7 - 3 A+ +42 A- +11 A F A+ A+ +33 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 12 Kansas L 76 - 77 OT 47% -1  35% 7 - 4 A- +15 B- +5 B C- A+ A +10 B A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 17 309 Texas Southern W 108 - 72 99% +24  98% 8 - 4 A+ +24 A+ +25 A A+ A+ C- -2 B+ F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 65 Mississippi W 76 - 62 75% +15  93% 9 - 4 A +22 B +5 A+ B+ F A+ +17 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 63 Wake Forest W 70 - 57 82% +7  73% 10 - 4 1 - 0 A +18 D -5 C+ F C A+ +23 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 23 Virginia L 61 - 76 57% -13  0% 10 - 5 1 - 1 C -2 D+ -3 D C B- C -0 D+ D+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 129 @Boston College W 79 - 71 84% +7  93% 11 - 5 2 - 1 B+ +13 A+ +23 A A+ A+ D- -9 F D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 93 @Florida St. W 113 - 69 75% +24  99% 12 - 5 3 - 1 A+ +52 A+ +31 A+ A+ A+ A+ +17 A+ C B
 Sat, Jan 17 131 Georgia Tech L 74 - 78 93% -1  39% 12 - 6 3 - 2 D+ -5 D -5 C- F+ A- C -0 F C+ A
 Tue, Jan 20 38 @Clemson W 80 - 76 OT 44% +3  65% 13 - 6 4 - 2 A +21 A +13 A- F+ A+ B+ +7 B- C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 99 @Pittsburgh W 81 - 72 75% -1  32% 14 - 6 5 - 2 A- +17 A +12 B- C A+ B +6 A+ F A-
 Tue, Jan 27 67 Syracuse W 88 - 68 83% +7  100% 15 - 6 6 - 2 A+ +25 A+ +14 A+ A- A- A +11 A+ D- C
 Sat, Jan 31 63 @Wake Forest W 96 - 78 65% +11  93% 16 - 6 7 - 2 A+ +29 A+ +26 A+ B A+ B- +3 B- B D+
 Tue, Feb 3 37 @SMU W 84 - 83 43% -1  37% 17 - 6 8 - 2 A +18 A +14 A- B- A+ B +5 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 55 Virginia Tech W 82 - 73 78% +8  94% 18 - 6 9 - 2 A- +16 B+ +8 A+ D- A- A- +8 A D- A
 Mon, Feb 9 11 @Louisville L 77 - 118 25% -21  0% 18 - 7 9 - 3 F -18 C +1 C- C A+ F -14 F A+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 41 Miami (FL) W 82 - 77 70%
 Tue, Feb 17 26 North Carolina W 83 - 80 62%
 Tue, Feb 24 23 @Virginia L 73 - 77 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 82 @Notre Dame W 79 - 73 69%
 Mon, Mar 2 3 Duke L 74 - 79 31%
 Sat, Mar 7 74 Stanford W 84 - 73 85%
Totals 22 - 9 13 - 5 +15 A- +10 A- B- A B +6 C+ B+ A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B+ D+ A- A- 40% 16% 44% B- A- C A B- A C+ B B- B B B- C B- 36% 15% 49% D+ C+ B+ B- B+ A- C A- C+
1.22 65% 35% 39% +6 +1 1.16 30% 1.2 .37 13% .32 76% .25 1.00 52% 35% 34% -2 0 0.98 25% 1.0 .25 21% .30 68% .22
Nov
3		 NC Central A+ A+ F A+ A+ 26% 9% 64% C+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ B+ D B- A- C- 37% 21% 42% C C- A F C+ A+ F A+ F
1.57 93% 20% 44% +17 +1 1.38 45% 1.4 .65 12% .47 70% .33 0.89 63% 33% 28% -3 0 0.95 21% 1.1 .24 25% .51 64% .33
Nov
7		 UAB A A+ A+ C+ A+ 38% 12% 50% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ A A+ A- B- F A+ A- 45% 19% 36% D B+ F+ A C+ A+ A A+ A+
1.26 80% 50% 35% +10 +1 1.25 38% 1.4 .52 19% .36 82% .30 0.94 54% 55% 14% -9 +1 0.84 39% 0.8 .32 19% .23 57% .13
Nov
12		 UNC Greensboro A+ B D A+ B+ 38% 15% 48% B- B+ D A+ A+ A+ B+ A A A A+ C- A+ A+ 26% 21% 54% C+ A+ A D B A F B+ F
1.48 65% 33% 45% +10 +1 1.23 26% 2.0 .53 5% .33 78% .26 0.86 40% 38% 24% -13 -1 0.74 19% 1.1 .21 22% .70 63% .45
Nov
17		 Virginia Commonwealth B+ F A+ B B- 36% 22% 42% D+ C+ A+ B A+ F A+ A+ A+ B C- A+ C+ B 23% 7% 70% B- B A D+ B C+ A A A+
1.15 44% 50% 37% -1 0 1.00 42% 1.1 .45 23% .58 82% .48 1.07 62% 25% 33% -1 +1 1.02 28% 1.2 .33 16% .29 67% .19
Nov
24		 Seton Hall B- F+ A+ C B 40% 13% 46% B- B D- C- D A+ C+ C+ C+ D+ D D- B D 45% 14% 41% D- D A+ F F+ B+ F+ F F
1.00 43% 71% 33% -2 +1 1.00 23% 0.9 .21 18% .36 73% .26 1.15 64% 43% 30% +1 +1 1.06 25% 1.9 .46 19% .40 83% .33
Nov
25		 Boise St. B+ B A A+ A+ 39% 20% 41% B A+ C+ F D- B A A+ A+ A A F D+ B- 24% 9% 67% B- B- C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F
1.16 63% 50% 45% +11 0 1.24 23% 0.6 .13 14% .38 78% .30 1.00 45% 50% 37% +1 0 1.04 33% 0.5 .16 21% .58 66% .38
Nov
26		 Texas A+ A+ F A+ A+ 44% 25% 31% B- A C A+ A+ A+ A C A F D+ F F F 26% 11% 64% C F A+ F C+ F F F F
1.35 71% 21% 47% +7 0 1.16 24% 1.8 .42 8% .42 71% .30 1.42 67% 60% 47% +17 0 1.36 23% 2.0 .46 10% .51 85% .43
Dec
3		 Auburn C+ B+ D D+ C+ 34% 16% 50% B- C+ D- F F A+ F+ A+ D B F A+ F F 40% 10% 50% D+ F A+ B- A+ A+ D F F
1.04 63% 33% 32% 0 0 1.02 21% 0.6 .13 13% .21 85% .18 1.18 75% 25% 55% +21 +1 1.48 26% 1.0 .26 28% .44 86% .38
Dec
6		 UNC Asheville C- A F+ F D 48% 12% 40% B D+ D+ A+ A+ D+ D- A+ C B+ A+ A- F+ B+ 13% 46% 42% A+ A- B+ D B- B B- F C-
1.11 71% 33% 20% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.7 .47 18% .27 80% .22 0.93 33% 32% 40% -2 -5 0.88 24% 1.1 .26 21% .32 76% .24
Dec
10		 Liberty A- A F A A 46% 13% 41% A- A D F F A+ A D B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 43% 0% 57% D+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+
1.26 68% 29% 41% +8 +2 1.20 26% 0.9 .24 12% .32 68% .22 0.67 52% 21% -13 +3 0.82 15% 0.3 .05 25% .20 30% .06
Dec
13		 Kansas B- B D+ F+ B- 37% 15% 48% B+ B C- C C- A+ C+ A B- A B- A D+ B+ 33% 18% 49% C B A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+
1.01 58% 30% 26% -7 +1 0.89 23% 0.8 .19 9% .22 73% .16 1.03 60% 27% 37% +1 0 1.03 23% 0.8 .19 11% .15 60% .09
Dec
17		 Texas Southern A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 11% 58% C- A A+ B- A+ A+ B A+ A+ C- B- C A+ A 43% 15% 43% F B+ F D F C+ D D D-
1.52 56% 67% 45% +13 +1 1.28 49% 1.2 .60 10% .42 85% .36 1.01 52% 38% 22% -10 +1 0.83 35% 1.1 .40 18% .34 75% .26
Dec
21		 Mississippi B A+ F C+ A+ 29% 14% 57% B A+ D- A+ B+ F F F F A+ F B- B+ B 19% 23% 57% D B- A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A C+
1.09 87% 14% 34% +6 0 1.14 23% 1.7 .40 23% .24 54% .13 0.89 78% 36% 30% 0 -2 0.98 19% 0.6 .11 21% .33 67% .22
Dec
31		 Wake Forest D A- F F C 46% 15% 38% B C+ C- F F C C- A C+ A+ A+ D- A- A+ 37% 8% 55% F+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A- A A
0.98 67% 25% 25% -3 +1 0.98 29% 0.6 .17 21% .30 82% .25 0.80 42% 50% 29% -9 +2 0.86 25% 0.4 .10 22% .23 69% .16
Jan
3		 Virginia D+ B- F F D 32% 30% 39% C- D D- A+ C B- A+ A A+ C C+ F C- D 27% 9% 64% C+ D+ A- F D+ A+ C C- C
0.95 57% 23% 24% -11 -2 0.77 21% 1.1 .24 16% .46 80% .37 1.18 58% 100% 36% +7 +1 1.18 35% 1.4 .50 22% .30 73% .22
Jan
6		 Boston College A+ F B- A+ A 42% 20% 38% B- A B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F F D- D- B+ F F 45% 16% 39% F F F B- D- A+ F F+ F
1.30 33% 40% 58% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.5 .51 7% .21 50% .11 1.17 65% 33% 53% +14 +1 1.32 40% 0.9 .36 26% .49 73% .36
Jan
10		 Florida St. A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 22% 29% 49% F+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A- A- A+ B A+ A+ A+ 47% 8% 45% D- A+ A+ F C B F B F
1.46 77% 35% 55% +19 -2 1.36 37% 1.8 .67 12% .34 78% .26 0.89 54% 0% 22% -13 +2 0.80 15% 2.5 .38 17% .45 69% .31
Jan
17		 Georgia Tech D D- F B D+ 39% 11% 50% A- C- F+ D+ F+ A- A F+ B+ C B- F F F 43% 15% 43% F+ F A F C+ A F A+ D
1.00 48% 0% 37% -6 +1 0.93 20% 1.0 .20 12% .38 64% .25 1.05 55% 57% 45% +9 +1 1.21 24% 1.4 .33 23% .49 50% .25
Jan
20		 Clemson A B+ F B+ A- 40% 17% 42% B+ A- D F F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ D+ A+ C B- 36% 9% 55% C- B- B- C- C+ B+ D- A+ C
1.12 62% 22% 36% 0 +1 1.04 17% 0.7 .11 10% .39 88% .34 1.06 65% 25% 35% +2 +1 1.09 27% 1.1 .30 18% .41 63% .26
Jan
24		 Pittsburgh A B F B B- 42% 21% 37% C B- D+ B- C A+ A+ B+ A+ B A+ A+ B- A+ 37% 20% 43% C+ A+ F B- F A- F A+ C-
1.19 64% 27% 37% +2 0 1.06 24% 1.0 .24 12% .45 81% .37 1.06 42% 20% 32% -11 0 0.80 53% 0.9 .49 21% .46 44% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Syracuse A+ A+ A+ D A+ 50% 12% 38% A A+ A+ D A- A- C+ A+ B A A+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 18% 36% D+ A+ C- F+ D- C A- A+ A
1.26 69% 50% 30% +5 +2 1.15 45% 1.0 .45 16% .30 83% .25 0.97 46% 20% 25% -13 +1 0.77 33% 1.2 .40 16% .27 56% .15
Jan
31		 Wake Forest A+ F A+ A+ A+ 38% 13% 49% B- A+ D- A+ B A+ C- B C B- A- F C- C+ 37% 22% 41% B B- A+ F B D+ F F F
1.38 43% 57% 56% +13 +1 1.29 24% 1.6 .38 12% .29 78% .23 1.12 50% 55% 35% +1 0 1.04 18% 1.8 .32 13% .40 88% .35
Feb
3		 SMU A D- D+ A+ A- 29% 11% 60% B+ A- D- A+ B- A+ B+ F C B B+ A F C 48% 16% 36% F D+ A- A+ A+ C- A A+ A+
1.20 50% 33% 42% +5 +1 1.13 23% 1.4 .31 10% .32 60% .19 1.18 54% 33% 57% +10 +1 1.24 32% 0.5 .16 14% .20 58% .12
Feb
7		 Virginia Tech B+ A- F A+ A+ 41% 18% 41% B A+ F A- D- A- A+ C- A+ A- A- D+ A+ A+ 50% 10% 40% F A C+ F D- A A- F+ B
1.13 67% 22% 43% +6 +1 1.16 18% 1.2 .21 15% .39 71% .28 1.01 52% 40% 25% -8 +2 0.90 32% 1.4 .46 21% .26 80% .21
Feb
9		 Louisville C A+ F F C- 38% 30% 32% C+ C- F A+ C A+ C- A+ B+ F D D- F F 44% 7% 49% D+ F A A+ A+ D D- D F+
0.96 75% 21% 15% -8 -1 0.84 15% 1.5 .23 12% .27 89% .24 1.47 69% 50% 62% +27 +2 1.59 27% 0.3 .07 12% .38 81% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 1.7 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 3.9 11.6 2.1 17.6 2nd
3rd 2.0 15.1 4.4 21.4 3rd
4th 0.2 11.4 11.3 0.4 23.3 4th
5th 0.0 3.5 13.0 0.9 17.3 5th
6th 0.6 6.9 2.7 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 3.5 0.1 5.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 0.5 2.2 8th
9th 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.5 4.1 14.6 29.1 31.2 16.8 3.8 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 45.8% 1.7    0.3 1.1 0.3 0.0
14-4 2.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 3.8% 100.0% 13.9% 86.1% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 16.8% 99.8% 10.7% 89.2% 5.9 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.7 5.9 4.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 99.8%
13-5 31.2% 99.5% 8.1% 91.4% 6.9 0.1 0.5 2.6 7.1 11.9 6.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.5%
12-6 29.1% 98.1% 4.1% 94.0% 7.8 0.1 0.6 3.0 7.6 9.7 6.0 1.7 0.1 0.6 98.0%
11-7 14.6% 94.8% 3.0% 91.8% 8.7 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.0 4.7 2.8 0.5 0.8 94.6%
10-8 4.1% 84.3% 1.2% 83.0% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.6 84.1%
9-9 0.5% 54.3% 2.2% 52.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 53.3%
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.7% 6.5% 91.1% 7.2 2.4 97.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 2.8 7.5 22.6 50.9 15.1 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 100.0% 4.3 1.1 12.6 47.1 29.9 8.0 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 100.0% 4.8 8.1 28.5 38.2 22.0 3.3