Duke
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+23.6#2
Expected Predictive Rating+22.0#3
Pace64.5#283
Improvement-2.1#282

Offense
Total Offense+13.2#3
First Shot+10.8#4
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#39
Layup/Dunks+4.6#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#28
Freethrows+1.5#87
Improvement+1.8#103

Defense
Total Defense+10.3#4
First Shot+7.6#14
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#14
Layups/Dunks+7.3#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#254
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#159
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement-3.9#340
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 12.8% 14.0% 9.0%
#1 Seed 64.6% 67.3% 56.3%
Top 2 Seed 96.8% 97.7% 94.0%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.4 1.4 1.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 97.7% 97.8% 97.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.6% 99.7% 99.4%
Sweet Sixteen82.3% 82.6% 81.0%
Elite Eight61.2% 61.7% 59.4%
Final Four42.1% 43.1% 39.0%
Championship Game27.4% 28.4% 24.3%
National Champion17.2% 17.8% 15.0%

Next Game: Illinois (Neutral) - 76.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 35 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 18 - 4
Quad 27 - 015 - 4
Quad 310 - 025 - 4
Quad 45 - 030 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 209   Maine W 96-62 99%     1 - 0 +28.9 +18.7 +8.6
  Nov 08, 2024 287   Army W 100-58 99%     2 - 0 +32.5 +20.9 +11.0
  Nov 12, 2024 17   Kentucky L 72-77 74%     2 - 1 +11.9 -0.9 +13.1
  Nov 16, 2024 142   Wofford W 86-35 98%     3 - 1 +49.5 +18.2 +35.9
  Nov 22, 2024 8   @ Arizona W 69-55 59%     4 - 1 +35.3 +10.0 +25.7
  Nov 26, 2024 19   Kansas L 72-75 76%     4 - 2 +13.1 +11.5 +1.6
  Nov 29, 2024 165   Seattle W 70-48 98%     5 - 2 +19.2 -0.8 +20.7
  Dec 04, 2024 1   Auburn W 84-78 60%     6 - 2 +27.0 +29.0 -1.3
  Dec 08, 2024 21   @ Louisville W 76-65 69%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +29.3 +14.6 +15.2
  Dec 10, 2024 281   Incarnate Word W 72-46 99%     8 - 2 +16.8 +2.2 +18.0
  Dec 17, 2024 75   George Mason W 68-47 95%     9 - 2 +26.1 +10.0 +18.4
  Dec 21, 2024 99   @ Georgia Tech W 82-56 93%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +33.4 +22.0 +13.9
  Dec 31, 2024 128   Virginia Tech W 88-65 98%     11 - 2 3 - 0 +22.2 +22.5 +1.8
  Jan 04, 2025 37   @ SMU W 89-62 79%     12 - 2 4 - 0 +42.1 +28.4 +15.7
  Jan 07, 2025 52   Pittsburgh W 76-47 92%     13 - 2 5 - 0 +37.1 +11.7 +27.7
  Jan 11, 2025 95   Notre Dame W 86-78 96%     14 - 2 6 - 0 +10.6 +20.3 -9.1
  Jan 14, 2025 152   Miami (FL) W 89-54 98%     15 - 2 7 - 0 +33.1 +20.2 +16.7
  Jan 18, 2025 174   @ Boston College W 88-63 97%     16 - 2 8 - 0 +26.9 +20.8 +7.4
  Jan 25, 2025 55   @ Wake Forest W 63-56 84%     17 - 2 9 - 0 +20.1 +1.5 +18.9
  Jan 27, 2025 103   North Carolina St. W 74-64 97%     18 - 2 10 - 0 +11.7 +5.1 +7.0
  Feb 01, 2025 40   North Carolina W 87-70 90%     19 - 2 11 - 0 +26.6 +24.9 +3.0
  Feb 05, 2025 108   @ Syracuse W 83-54 94%     20 - 2 12 - 0 +35.0 +25.6 +14.1
  Feb 08, 2025 23   @ Clemson L 71-77 70%     20 - 3 12 - 1 +12.1 +15.3 -3.8
  Feb 12, 2025 112   California W 78-57 97%     21 - 3 13 - 1 +21.7 +8.5 +14.6
  Feb 15, 2025 88   Stanford W 106-70 96%     22 - 3 14 - 1 +39.8 +40.2 +1.7
  Feb 17, 2025 93   @ Virginia W 80-62 92%     23 - 3 15 - 1 +25.7 +22.8 +5.7
  Feb 22, 2025 18   Illinois W 81-74 76%    
  Feb 25, 2025 152   @ Miami (FL) W 86-66 97%    
  Mar 01, 2025 82   Florida St. W 82-63 97%    
  Mar 03, 2025 55   Wake Forest W 77-61 93%    
  Mar 08, 2025 40   @ North Carolina W 81-72 79%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 19 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 26.6 69.8 97.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.7 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.2 3.4 26.6 69.8 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 69.8    69.8
18-2 100.0% 26.6    9.9 12.9 3.8
17-3 38.4% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.6
16-4 4.8% 0.0    0.0
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 97.7% 97.7 79.9 13.5 4.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 69.8% 100.0% 67.5% 32.5% 1.3 48.4 20.2 1.1 0.1 100.0%
18-2 26.6% 100.0% 59.9% 40.1% 1.5 14.7 10.3 1.4 0.1 100.0%
17-3 3.4% 100.0% 54.1% 45.9% 1.7 1.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 65.0% 35.0% 1.4 64.6 32.2 3.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 36.3% 100.0% 1.2 77.0 22.5 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.4% 100.0% 1.4 62.8 35.5 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.6% 100.0% 1.4 60.8 36.9 2.3