North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#40
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#47
Pace76.4#22
Improvement-4.8#341

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#33
First Shot+6.9#31
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#166
Layup/Dunks+5.9#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
Freethrows+3.0#34
Improvement-2.9#307

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#58
First Shot+3.7#69
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#79
Layups/Dunks+4.8#41
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#140
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#283
Freethrows+0.7#127
Improvement-2.0#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.2% 28.6% 15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.3% 26.6% 13.8%
Average Seed 10.5 10.5 10.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four15.7% 16.9% 9.6%
First Round19.1% 20.9% 10.6%
Second Round7.6% 8.4% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.3% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Home) - 82.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 101 - 10
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 11
Quad 25 - 17 - 12
Quad 38 - 115 - 14
Quad 45 - 020 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 175   Elon W 90-76 92%     1 - 0 +10.6 +9.3 +0.4
  Nov 08, 2024 19   @ Kansas L 89-92 26%     1 - 1 +15.7 +19.2 -3.3
  Nov 15, 2024 247   American W 107-55 95%     2 - 1 +44.6 +23.9 +17.8
  Nov 22, 2024 207   @ Hawaii W 87-69 87%     3 - 1 +18.0 +17.8 +0.7
  Nov 25, 2024 83   Dayton W 92-90 70%     4 - 1 +8.8 +10.9 -2.3
  Nov 26, 2024 1   Auburn L 72-85 14%     4 - 2 +10.6 +4.7 +6.6
  Nov 27, 2024 12   Michigan St. L 91-94 OT 28%     4 - 3 +15.2 +16.7 -1.1
  Dec 04, 2024 6   Alabama L 79-94 32%     4 - 4 +1.9 -2.1 +6.5
  Dec 07, 2024 99   Georgia Tech W 68-65 82%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +5.3 -7.8 +12.9
  Dec 14, 2024 236   La Salle W 93-67 95%     6 - 4 +19.4 +9.7 +7.5
  Dec 17, 2024 4   Florida L 84-90 17%     6 - 5 +16.2 +11.8 +5.1
  Dec 21, 2024 27   UCLA W 76-74 40%     7 - 5 +16.7 +9.4 +7.3
  Dec 29, 2024 183   Campbell W 97-81 92%     8 - 5 +12.2 +23.3 -11.3
  Jan 01, 2025 21   @ Louisville L 70-83 27%     8 - 6 1 - 1 +5.3 +0.7 +5.5
  Jan 04, 2025 95   @ Notre Dame W 74-73 67%     9 - 6 2 - 1 +8.7 +6.1 +2.6
  Jan 07, 2025 37   SMU W 82-67 58%     10 - 6 3 - 1 +25.0 +6.7 +17.3
  Jan 11, 2025 103   @ North Carolina St. W 63-61 70%     11 - 6 4 - 1 +8.8 +0.9 +8.1
  Jan 15, 2025 112   California W 79-53 86%     12 - 6 5 - 1 +26.7 +2.3 +23.8
  Jan 18, 2025 88   Stanford L 71-72 79%     12 - 7 5 - 2 +2.8 +2.8 +0.0
  Jan 21, 2025 55   @ Wake Forest L 66-67 46%     12 - 8 5 - 3 +12.1 -0.3 +12.5
  Jan 25, 2025 174   Boston College W 102-96 OT 92%     13 - 8 6 - 3 +2.8 +20.8 -18.4
  Jan 28, 2025 52   @ Pittsburgh L 65-73 46%     13 - 9 6 - 4 +5.2 +1.1 +3.6
  Feb 01, 2025 2   @ Duke L 70-87 10%     13 - 10 6 - 5 +9.1 +14.5 -6.7
  Feb 08, 2025 52   Pittsburgh W 67-66 65%     14 - 10 7 - 5 +9.1 +4.1 +5.1
  Feb 10, 2025 23   @ Clemson L 65-85 28%     14 - 11 7 - 6 -1.9 +0.8 -2.7
  Feb 15, 2025 108   @ Syracuse W 88-82 72%     15 - 11 8 - 6 +12.0 +17.9 -5.8
  Feb 19, 2025 103   North Carolina St. W 97-73 84%     16 - 11 9 - 6 +25.7 +26.4 -0.5
  Feb 22, 2025 93   Virginia W 74-65 83%    
  Feb 24, 2025 82   @ Florida St. W 80-77 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 152   Miami (FL) W 90-76 92%    
  Mar 04, 2025 128   @ Virginia Tech W 79-71 75%    
  Mar 08, 2025 2   Duke L 72-81 21%    
Projected Record 19 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 2.9 5.0 4th
5th 0.1 3.4 12.5 3.7 19.6 5th
6th 0.8 12.0 34.0 20.7 1.3 68.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.4 0.5 5.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 0.3 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.2 3.1 15.8 38.0 35.1 7.8 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 7.8% 70.1% 5.8% 64.3% 9.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 1.8 0.0 2.3 68.3%
13-7 35.1% 34.7% 2.9% 31.8% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.8 7.3 0.9 22.9 32.8%
12-8 38.0% 19.3% 2.0% 17.3% 10.9 0.1 0.2 1.0 5.3 0.8 30.7 17.7%
11-9 15.8% 7.3% 1.6% 5.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.2 14.7 5.8%
10-10 3.1% 1.9% 0.6% 1.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 1.3%
9-11 0.2% 0.2
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.2% 2.5% 23.7% 10.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 5.9 15.2 1.9 73.8 24.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 6.4 31.1 24.4 22.2 17.8 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 88.2% 9.3 3.2 15.1 31.2 28.0 10.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2% 77.7% 9.9 0.5 7.0 14.0 33.0 23.3