American
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#247
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#202
Pace60.4#353
Improvement+0.9#148

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#222
First Shot+1.5#123
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#335
Layup/Dunks-1.9#255
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#10
Freethrows-1.3#269
Improvement+0.2#178

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#253
First Shot-3.7#298
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#119
Layups/Dunks-7.2#360
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#7
Freethrows-1.8#300
Improvement+0.7#145
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.2% 19.3% 15.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 83.2% 93.1% 59.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.8% 7.0% 9.7%
First Round14.3% 16.0% 10.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston University (Home) - 71.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 417 - 618 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 236   @ La Salle L 52-65 37%     0 - 1 -14.5 -11.2 -5.6
  Nov 10, 2024 251   Harvard W 67-55 61%     1 - 1 +4.4 -2.3 +7.9
  Nov 12, 2024 228   @ Siena L 66-74 36%     1 - 2 -9.1 +5.3 -15.8
  Nov 15, 2024 40   @ North Carolina L 55-107 5%     1 - 3 -37.3 -14.7 -19.7
  Nov 18, 2024 96   @ High Point L 73-80 13%     1 - 4 +0.6 +13.6 -14.5
  Nov 22, 2024 245   UMKC W 64-60 50%     2 - 4 -0.8 -6.6 +6.0
  Nov 24, 2024 267   Albany W 81-77 53%     3 - 4 -1.6 +3.5 -5.1
  Dec 04, 2024 117   George Washington W 81-71 OT 31%     4 - 4 +10.2 +0.7 +8.4
  Dec 18, 2024 78   @ Saint Joseph's L 57-84 9%     4 - 5 -17.1 -7.6 -10.5
  Dec 22, 2024 93   @ Virginia L 58-63 12%     4 - 6 +2.7 -0.1 +1.8
  Dec 29, 2024 288   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 93-96 2OT 68%     4 - 7 -12.6 -2.2 -9.9
  Jan 02, 2025 283   @ Navy L 58-81 48%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -27.3 -11.0 -18.4
  Jan 05, 2025 317   Holy Cross W 75-64 75%     5 - 8 1 - 1 -0.7 +6.6 -5.7
  Jan 08, 2025 300   @ Boston University L 54-60 52%     5 - 9 1 - 2 -11.3 -9.7 -2.7
  Jan 11, 2025 232   Bucknell W 68-58 56%     6 - 9 2 - 2 +3.6 -1.8 +6.1
  Jan 13, 2025 325   @ Loyola Maryland W 73-54 60%     7 - 9 3 - 2 +11.6 +6.3 +7.7
  Jan 18, 2025 317   @ Holy Cross W 74-65 57%     8 - 9 4 - 2 +2.4 +6.0 -2.5
  Jan 22, 2025 279   Lehigh W 68-67 66%     9 - 9 5 - 2 -8.1 +0.2 -8.2
  Jan 25, 2025 239   Colgate W 81-77 58%     10 - 9 6 - 2 -2.8 +7.6 -10.2
  Jan 29, 2025 298   @ Lafayette W 75-68 51%     11 - 9 7 - 2 +1.9 +9.5 -6.9
  Feb 01, 2025 287   Army W 71-68 67%     12 - 9 8 - 2 -6.5 +2.9 -8.9
  Feb 05, 2025 232   @ Bucknell L 49-71 37%     12 - 10 8 - 3 -23.3 -17.0 -9.1
  Feb 08, 2025 279   @ Lehigh W 78-75 OT 47%     13 - 10 9 - 3 -1.0 +1.0 -2.1
  Feb 10, 2025 298   Lafayette W 60-58 70%     14 - 10 10 - 3 -8.2 -6.3 -1.7
  Feb 15, 2025 325   Loyola Maryland W 72-51 77%     15 - 10 11 - 3 +8.5 +5.0 +6.9
  Feb 19, 2025 287   @ Army L 69-76 48%     15 - 11 11 - 4 -11.4 +1.0 -13.1
  Feb 22, 2025 300   Boston University W 67-61 71%    
  Feb 26, 2025 283   Navy W 70-65 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 239   @ Colgate L 68-71 36%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 19.1 45.0 18.6 83.2 1st
2nd 2.6 10.7 13.2 2nd
3rd 2.8 2.8 3rd
4th 0.7 0.7 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 6.6 29.8 45.0 18.6 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 18.6    18.6
13-5 100.0% 45.0    29.2 15.9
12-6 64.1% 19.1    2.1 8.5 6.4 2.0
11-7 8.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
10-8
9-9
Total 83.2% 83.2 49.9 24.4 6.6 2.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 18.6% 22.3% 22.3% 15.4 0.1 2.4 1.7 14.5
13-5 45.0% 19.2% 19.2% 15.8 0.0 1.4 7.2 36.4
12-6 29.8% 15.6% 15.6% 16.0 0.2 4.4 25.1
11-7 6.6% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8 5.8
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 4.0 14.1 81.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.1% 100.0% 15.4 2.7 57.2 40.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.1%
Lose Out 3.1%