Lafayette
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#244
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#276
Pace64.3#316
Improvement+0.9#98

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#282
First Shot-1.4#225
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#304
Layup/Dunks+2.1#107
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#107
Freethrows-1.8#274
Improvement+1.0#67

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#187
First Shot+0.7#156
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#269
Layups/Dunks-3.8#304
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#47
Freethrows+0.1#183
Improvement-0.1#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.8% 13.8% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 60.1% 64.8% 38.8%
.500 or above in Conference 71.3% 73.4% 61.6%
Conference Champion 16.9% 18.1% 11.6%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 4.4% 8.4%
First Four5.2% 5.3% 4.4%
First Round10.2% 11.0% 6.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 81.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 416 - 817 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 71   @ Villanova L 63-75 8%     0 - 1 -1.0 -3.8 +2.6
  Nov 09, 2024 130   @ La Salle L 60-81 19%     0 - 2 -16.0 -9.8 -6.0
  Nov 12, 2024 266   Penn W 65-63 66%     1 - 2 -6.5 -2.0 -4.1
  Nov 16, 2024 209   @ Cornell L 71-81 32%     1 - 3 -9.4 -3.1 -6.5
  Nov 20, 2024 112   @ Rhode Island L 72-86 15%     1 - 4 -7.3 -1.5 -5.3
  Nov 29, 2024 338   LIU Brooklyn W 75-65 82%    
  Nov 30, 2024 304   Niagara W 72-65 73%    
  Dec 01, 2024 330   Binghamton W 71-63 79%    
  Dec 07, 2024 359   @ Mercyhurst W 66-59 75%    
  Dec 18, 2024 144   @ George Washington L 68-76 22%    
  Dec 21, 2024 290   @ Portland L 67-68 46%    
  Dec 29, 2024 339   Stonehill W 70-60 81%    
  Jan 02, 2025 288   Boston University W 68-63 67%    
  Jan 05, 2025 310   @ Navy W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 08, 2025 231   @ Bucknell L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 11, 2025 315   Holy Cross W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 15, 2025 294   @ Army L 63-64 49%    
  Jan 18, 2025 183   Colgate W 65-64 50%    
  Jan 22, 2025 336   @ Loyola Maryland W 66-63 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 283   @ Lehigh L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 29, 2025 263   American W 67-63 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 183   @ Colgate L 61-67 30%    
  Feb 05, 2025 336   Loyola Maryland W 69-60 79%    
  Feb 08, 2025 310   Navy W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 10, 2025 263   @ American L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 231   Bucknell W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 19, 2025 315   @ Holy Cross W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 283   Lehigh W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 25, 2025 294   Army W 67-61 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 288   @ Boston University L 65-66 46%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.6 3.7 4.9 3.8 1.7 0.8 0.1 16.9 1st
2nd 0.5 3.1 5.4 4.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.1 5.8 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 6.0 2.9 0.5 12.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 5.3 3.0 0.4 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.5 2.8 0.3 9.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.2 2.8 0.2 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.5 0.3 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 2.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.2 5.5 7.4 9.6 11.6 13.0 12.4 11.4 9.1 6.8 4.2 1.8 0.8 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
16-2 98.0% 1.7    1.6 0.1
15-3 90.4% 3.8    3.1 0.6 0.0
14-4 71.9% 4.9    3.0 1.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 40.2% 3.7    1.5 1.6 0.5 0.1
12-6 13.6% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.9% 16.9 10.4 4.7 1.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 59.6% 59.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.8% 41.3% 41.3% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5
16-2 1.8% 40.2% 40.2% 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.1
15-3 4.2% 33.8% 33.8% 14.8 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 2.8
14-4 6.8% 26.6% 26.6% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 5.0
13-5 9.1% 21.3% 21.3% 15.5 0.1 0.7 1.2 7.2
12-6 11.4% 16.8% 16.8% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.6 9.5
11-7 12.4% 13.7% 13.7% 15.9 0.2 1.6 10.7
10-8 13.0% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1 11.9
9-9 11.6% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9 10.6
8-10 9.6% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.5 9.0
7-11 7.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 7.2
6-12 5.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 5.4
5-13 3.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-14 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.2 8.0 87.2 0.0%