Lafayette
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#298
Expected Predictive Rating-10.1#322
Pace65.1#262
Improvement-0.5#214

Offense
Total Offense-6.5#336
First Shot-3.8#290
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#323
Layup/Dunks-2.8#288
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#153
Freethrows+0.7#135
Improvement-1.9#280

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#208
First Shot+0.1#182
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#292
Layups/Dunks-2.2#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#149
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#62
Freethrows-1.2#266
Improvement+1.4#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 4.4% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 29.1% 10.5% 53.3%
First Four3.9% 4.3% 3.2%
First Round2.1% 2.4% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Home) - 56.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 6
Quad 411 - 1411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 43   @ Villanova L 63-75 3%     0 - 1 +2.3 -4.1 +6.1
  Nov 09, 2024 236   @ La Salle L 60-81 27%     0 - 2 -22.5 -13.4 -8.9
  Nov 12, 2024 260   Penn W 65-63 51%     1 - 2 -5.9 -0.2 -5.3
  Nov 16, 2024 164   @ Cornell L 71-81 17%     1 - 3 -7.6 -2.5 -5.4
  Nov 20, 2024 121   @ Rhode Island L 72-86 12%     1 - 4 -9.2 -0.8 -7.9
  Nov 29, 2024 323   LIU Brooklyn W 75-56 66%     2 - 4 +7.0 +3.4 +4.1
  Nov 30, 2024 319   Niagara W 59-47 65%     3 - 4 +0.2 -16.5 +17.5
  Dec 01, 2024 299   Binghamton L 81-82 OT 60%     3 - 5 -11.2 -0.9 -10.3
  Dec 07, 2024 350   @ Mercyhurst W 77-73 60%     4 - 5 -6.3 +6.4 -12.4
  Dec 18, 2024 117   @ George Washington L 62-82 12%     4 - 6 -14.7 -3.2 -12.6
  Dec 21, 2024 284   @ Portland L 64-74 37%     4 - 7 -14.4 -14.2 -0.1
  Dec 29, 2024 324   Stonehill L 65-70 67%     4 - 8 -17.3 -13.7 -3.7
  Jan 02, 2025 300   Boston University W 60-46 60%     5 - 8 1 - 0 +3.6 -6.0 +12.2
  Jan 05, 2025 283   @ Navy L 70-71 37%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -5.3 -0.5 -4.8
  Jan 08, 2025 232   @ Bucknell L 62-65 OT 27%     5 - 10 1 - 2 -4.3 -11.4 +7.2
  Jan 11, 2025 317   Holy Cross W 82-65 65%     6 - 10 2 - 2 +5.3 +5.1 +0.7
  Jan 15, 2025 287   @ Army L 68-70 37%     6 - 11 2 - 3 -6.4 +1.2 -7.9
  Jan 18, 2025 239   Colgate L 67-90 47%     6 - 12 2 - 4 -29.8 -10.8 -19.3
  Jan 22, 2025 325   @ Loyola Maryland W 80-59 49%     7 - 12 3 - 4 +13.6 +11.0 +4.4
  Jan 25, 2025 279   @ Lehigh L 47-86 36%     7 - 13 3 - 5 -43.0 -24.1 -20.6
  Jan 29, 2025 247   American L 68-75 49%     7 - 14 3 - 6 -14.4 -2.6 -12.5
  Feb 01, 2025 239   @ Colgate W 76-61 28%     8 - 14 4 - 6 +13.3 +8.3 +6.6
  Feb 05, 2025 325   Loyola Maryland L 58-71 68%     8 - 15 4 - 7 -25.5 -13.7 -13.3
  Feb 08, 2025 283   Navy W 61-51 57%     9 - 15 5 - 7 +0.6 -13.6 +14.6
  Feb 10, 2025 247   @ American L 58-60 30%     9 - 16 5 - 8 -4.3 -7.9 +3.3
  Feb 15, 2025 232   Bucknell L 69-75 45%     9 - 17 5 - 9 -12.4 -3.7 -8.9
  Feb 19, 2025 317   @ Holy Cross L 69-74 OT 46%     9 - 18 5 - 10 -11.6 -9.0 -2.6
  Feb 22, 2025 279   Lehigh W 67-66 57%    
  Feb 25, 2025 287   Army W 69-67 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 300   @ Boston University L 62-64 39%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 2.7 2.7 5th
6th 1.9 6.8 8.7 6th
7th 8.4 30.8 4.8 44.0 7th
8th 1.2 16.9 4.9 23.0 8th
9th 4.7 9.5 0.2 14.4 9th
10th 5.6 1.7 7.3 10th
Total 11.4 36.6 37.8 14.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 14.2% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.9 13.3
7-11 37.8% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 1.6 36.2
6-12 36.6% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 1.1 35.6
5-13 11.4% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.4 11.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 16.0 3.9 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5%
Lose Out 6.3%