Bucknell
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#232
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#241
Pace69.2#146
Improvement+2.8#71

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#268
First Shot-2.2#239
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#261
Layup/Dunks+1.0#144
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#154
Freethrows+0.2#163
Improvement+5.8#7

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#185
First Shot+1.6#126
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#326
Layups/Dunks+2.2#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#302
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#273
Freethrows+3.1#19
Improvement-2.9#321
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.1% 23.9% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 79.6% 90.2% 53.6%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 37.1% 48.2% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.6% 10.8% 13.4%
First Round16.7% 18.8% 11.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Home) - 70.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 417 - 917 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 244   @ Delaware W 85-73 43%     1 - 0 +10.0 -1.2 +10.0
  Nov 07, 2024 343   @ Southern Indiana W 75-69 OT 71%     2 - 0 -3.7 -5.3 +1.3
  Nov 09, 2024 17   @ Kentucky L 72-100 3%     2 - 1 -8.5 -3.5 -1.9
  Nov 13, 2024 258   Mount St. Mary's L 89-93 2OT 65%     2 - 2 -11.9 -2.2 -8.9
  Nov 16, 2024 218   Richmond W 80-76 2OT 57%     3 - 2 -1.7 -9.3 +6.9
  Nov 21, 2024 346   NJIT W 81-64 85%     4 - 2 +1.8 +3.3 -1.5
  Nov 23, 2024 313   Rider L 53-57 77%     4 - 3 -15.6 -18.0 +1.8
  Nov 27, 2024 13   @ Maryland L 67-91 2%     4 - 4 -3.5 -0.1 -1.9
  Nov 30, 2024 228   Siena L 58-71 49%     4 - 5 -16.6 -8.4 -10.0
  Dec 04, 2024 106   St. Bonaventure L 47-64 30%     4 - 6 -15.5 -19.8 +2.9
  Dec 08, 2024 177   @ Radford L 70-74 OT 30%     4 - 7 -2.4 -7.0 +4.8
  Dec 21, 2024 11   @ Gonzaga L 65-86 2%     4 - 8 -0.1 -6.0 +7.8
  Dec 28, 2024 108   @ Syracuse L 63-75 18%     4 - 9 -6.0 -9.7 +4.2
  Jan 02, 2025 279   @ Lehigh L 64-66 OT 51%     4 - 10 0 - 1 -6.0 -15.9 +10.1
  Jan 05, 2025 239   Colgate W 66-60 61%     5 - 10 1 - 1 -0.8 -5.8 +5.6
  Jan 08, 2025 298   Lafayette W 65-62 OT 73%     6 - 10 2 - 1 -7.2 -11.8 +4.5
  Jan 11, 2025 247   @ American L 58-68 44%     6 - 11 2 - 2 -12.3 -12.5 -0.4
  Jan 15, 2025 317   Holy Cross W 86-82 77%     7 - 11 3 - 2 -7.7 +10.5 -18.1
  Jan 18, 2025 283   Navy W 73-69 70%     8 - 11 4 - 2 -5.4 +1.2 -6.3
  Jan 20, 2025 239   @ Colgate L 80-87 42%     8 - 12 4 - 3 -8.7 +2.9 -11.6
  Jan 25, 2025 300   @ Boston University L 82-85 OT 55%     8 - 13 4 - 4 -8.3 +10.8 -19.2
  Jan 29, 2025 325   Loyola Maryland W 79-67 79%     9 - 13 5 - 4 -0.5 +4.7 -4.6
  Feb 01, 2025 283   @ Navy W 85-75 52%     10 - 13 6 - 4 +5.7 +9.3 -3.7
  Feb 05, 2025 247   American W 71-49 63%     11 - 13 7 - 4 +14.6 +2.6 +14.7
  Feb 08, 2025 287   @ Army L 110-116 2OT 52%     11 - 14 7 - 5 -10.4 +16.0 -25.4
  Feb 12, 2025 300   Boston University W 76-60 73%     12 - 14 8 - 5 +5.6 +4.6 +2.2
  Feb 15, 2025 298   @ Lafayette W 75-69 55%     13 - 14 9 - 5 +0.9 +4.3 -3.2
  Feb 17, 2025 279   Lehigh W 67-50 69%     14 - 14 10 - 5 +7.9 -1.7 +11.4
  Feb 23, 2025 287   Army W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 26, 2025 325   @ Loyola Maryland W 72-69 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 317   @ Holy Cross W 72-69 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 14.3 22.3 37.1 1st
2nd 8.3 26.6 5.1 40.0 2nd
3rd 1.1 13.1 1.5 15.7 3rd
4th 3.6 3.4 7.0 4th
5th 0.3 0.3 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 5.0 25.2 42.5 27.3 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 81.4% 22.3    10.0 12.3
12-6 33.8% 14.3    1.0 5.8 5.5 2.0
11-7 2.1% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 37.1% 37.1 11.0 18.1 5.7 2.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 27.3% 27.0% 27.0% 15.5 0.2 3.2 4.0 20.0
12-6 42.5% 21.3% 21.3% 15.9 0.0 0.6 8.4 33.4
11-7 25.2% 19.5% 19.5% 16.0 0.1 4.8 20.3
10-8 5.0% 15.7% 15.7% 16.0 0.8 4.2
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.1% 22.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.2 3.9 18.0 77.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.4% 100.0% 15.5 2.7 42.7 54.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.1%
Lose Out 2.1%