Patriot League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
232 American 18.5%   16   4 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 7 -3.7      -1.3 214 -2.4 244 60.6 352 -1.2 182 0.0 1
242 Colgate 15.4%   2 - 10 0 - 0 12 - 18 10 - 8 -4.4      -1.9 226 -2.5 250 64.8 291 -8.2 302 0.0 1
247 Lehigh 14.4%   3 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 8 -4.8      -1.2 206 -3.6 285 69.0 177 -4.3 238 0.0 1
259 Boston University 12.4%   4 - 7 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 8 -5.2      -2.8 250 -2.4 245 61.5 345 -7.5 290 0.0 1
266 Bucknell 10.8%   4 - 8 0 - 0 14 - 17 10 - 8 -5.6      -6.0 336 +0.4 152 69.5 166 -7.0 282 0.0 1
267 Lafayette 11.3%   4 - 7 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 8 -5.7      -4.5 301 -1.1 204 64.9 287 -8.1 296 0.0 1
312 Holy Cross 4.7%   6 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 -8.5      -2.0 227 -6.5 349 64.2 297 +0.4 161 0.0 1
313 Army 4.9%   3 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -8.5      -4.0 286 -4.5 313 66.5 244 -8.2 301 0.0 1
319 Navy 3.8%   2 - 9 0 - 0 10 - 20 7 - 11 -8.9      -3.8 280 -5.1 330 68.8 186 -15.0 347 0.0 1
323 Loyola Maryland 3.8%   4 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -9.1      -5.4 326 -3.7 288 67.0 230 -7.0 283 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
American 3.5 26.6 18.1 13.9 11.1 8.9 7.2 5.4 4.2 3.0 1.6
Colgate 3.9 20.9 17.1 14.1 12.2 10.2 8.3 6.5 5.1 3.5 2.1
Lehigh 4.1 20.0 15.6 13.7 11.5 9.9 8.8 7.2 5.9 4.5 2.9
Boston University 4.4 16.3 14.3 13.1 12.0 11.1 9.7 8.2 6.7 5.2 3.3
Bucknell 4.6 13.9 13.3 12.7 12.2 11.6 10.2 9.0 7.5 5.9 3.8
Lafayette 4.6 13.7 13.5 12.9 12.1 11.2 10.3 8.9 7.5 6.0 3.8
Holy Cross 6.4 4.4 6.2 7.6 8.6 9.8 10.9 12.2 13.4 13.7 13.2
Army 6.4 4.6 6.0 7.3 8.3 9.7 11.0 12.1 12.9 14.0 14.2
Navy 6.7 3.5 5.1 6.6 7.7 9.2 10.7 12.3 13.7 15.2 15.9
Loyola Maryland 6.8 3.5 5.0 6.3 7.3 9.1 10.6 11.8 13.7 15.4 17.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
American 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.4 5.5 8.2 11.0 13.1 13.9 13.6 11.5 8.3 5.0 2.5 0.8 0.1
Colgate 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.1 6.7 9.6 12.4 14.1 14.4 12.9 9.8 6.4 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.1
Lehigh 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.0 7.5 10.4 12.1 13.5 13.4 11.9 9.2 6.1 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1
Boston University 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.5 5.7 8.6 11.3 13.4 14.0 13.1 10.6 7.8 5.1 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1
Bucknell 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.0 6.4 9.5 12.1 14.0 13.8 12.7 9.9 7.0 4.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
Lafayette 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.0 6.5 9.6 12.0 13.6 13.9 12.8 10.1 7.0 4.1 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
Holy Cross 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 6.7 9.8 12.8 14.0 13.8 11.8 9.8 6.9 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Army 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.0 7.0 10.1 12.5 13.6 13.5 12.0 9.4 6.6 4.3 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Navy 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.1 4.7 7.9 10.9 13.2 14.1 13.6 11.3 8.7 6.0 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.1 8.2 11.1 13.5 14.1 12.9 11.0 8.3 5.7 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
American 26.6% 17.7 6.5 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Colgate 20.9% 13.3 5.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lehigh 20.0% 12.7 5.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Boston University 16.3% 9.8 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Bucknell 13.9% 8.3 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 13.7% 8.0 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 4.4% 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Army 4.6% 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Navy 3.5% 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 3.5% 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
American 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.0 9.6 81.5 0.0%
Colgate 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 12.3 84.6 0.0%
Lehigh 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.5 9.5 85.6 0.0%
Boston University 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 9.9 87.6 0.0%
Bucknell 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 9.0 89.2 0.0%
Lafayette 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 9.6 88.7 0.0%
Holy Cross 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 4.1 95.3 0.0%
Army 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.6 95.1 0.0%
Navy 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 3.8 96.2 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.5 96.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
American 18.5% 4.9% 16.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 15.4% 9.5% 11.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 14.4% 5.8% 11.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 12.4% 7.0% 9.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 10.8% 6.6% 7.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 11.3% 7.0% 8.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 4.7% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 4.9% 3.8% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 3.8% 3.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.8% 2.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 74.1% 0.7 25.9 74.1
2nd Round 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0