Patriot League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
197 Colgate 31.7%   16   8 - 11 6 - 1 15 - 15 13 - 5 -1.8      -0.9 203 -0.9 204 65.7 249 -3.9 236 +2.6 1
235 American 18.0%   8 - 9 4 - 2 15 - 14 11 - 7 -4.2      -2.0 228 -2.3 243 60.0 355 -3.3 225 -3.1 3
267 Bucknell 11.4%   8 - 12 4 - 3 14 - 17 10 - 8 -5.9      -6.0 325 0.0 170 69.0 173 -5.9 262 -4.2 4
277 Lafayette 8.0%   6 - 12 2 - 4 12 - 18 8 - 10 -6.5      -5.3 313 -1.2 211 65.2 261 -10.0 321 -10.4 9
283 Boston University 7.3%   8 - 10 3 - 3 14 - 16 9 - 9 -7.0      -5.1 308 -1.9 235 60.1 353 -6.4 267 -6.1 5
292 Navy 5.5%   4 - 14 2 - 4 10 - 20 8 - 10 -7.5      -3.0 252 -4.5 306 68.1 196 -12.4 335 -9.8 7
297 Lehigh 4.5%   4 - 11 1 - 5 9 - 18 6 - 12 -7.7      -4.7 296 -3.0 264 70.2 135 -9.8 315 -16.2 10
302 Army 6.6%   8 - 8 4 - 2 13 - 15 9 - 9 -7.9      -4.0 281 -4.0 289 67.8 206 -5.3 251 -2.3 2
315 Loyola Maryland 3.9%   7 - 9 3 - 3 12 - 16 8 - 10 -8.8      -4.1 285 -4.7 310 66.3 237 -7.6 293 -7.4 6
319 Holy Cross 3.1%   8 - 9 2 - 4 13 - 16 7 - 11 -9.1      -1.6 221 -7.5 352 64.8 271 -3.8 234 -10.2 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 1.4 76.6 15.6 4.8 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
American 2.8 22.1 32.8 18.7 11.0 6.1 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.3
Bucknell 3.9 6.9 23.1 21.4 16.1 11.9 8.5 6.0 3.5 2.1 0.7
Lafayette 5.9 1.5 7.0 10.1 12.8 14.3 14.2 12.2 11.3 9.6 7.0
Boston University 5.0 3.4 11.9 15.9 16.1 14.5 12.4 9.4 7.9 5.7 3.0
Navy 6.4 1.0 4.4 8.1 10.5 12.6 13.8 14.6 13.7 12.2 9.2
Lehigh 7.7 0.2 1.9 3.3 5.2 7.1 9.7 12.3 14.7 18.7 26.9
Army 4.5 6.1 15.9 17.2 15.5 13.6 11.7 8.3 6.5 3.8 1.5
Loyola Maryland 6.2 1.6 5.1 8.5 10.6 12.9 13.5 14.6 13.7 12.6 6.9
Holy Cross 7.2 0.4 1.9 4.9 7.3 9.0 11.6 12.9 15.7 17.7 18.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 13 - 5 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.4 8.3 14.6 20.8 21.7 18.0 9.5 2.4
American 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.8 10.4 16.7 20.0 19.4 14.0 7.3 2.6 0.5
Bucknell 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 2.5 6.2 12.2 17.9 20.4 18.4 12.9 6.1 2.5 0.4
Lafayette 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 2.5 6.3 11.4 16.6 19.1 18.6 13.4 7.3 3.1 0.9 0.1
Boston University 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 3.1 7.1 12.3 17.5 19.8 17.2 12.6 6.5 2.4 0.8 0.1
Navy 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 3.5 8.2 14.2 19.4 19.7 16.1 10.6 5.1 1.8 0.3 0.1
Lehigh 6 - 12 0.2 1.6 5.0 10.7 15.9 18.7 18.3 14.1 8.8 4.8 1.6 0.4 0.1
Army 9 - 9 0.3 1.4 5.0 10.4 16.7 18.3 18.6 14.3 8.8 4.2 1.6 0.4 0.1
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 0.5 2.9 7.8 13.7 19.4 19.6 16.5 10.8 5.9 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 7 - 11 0.6 2.7 7.1 13.8 18.9 18.9 16.9 11.4 6.2 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 76.6% 62.8 11.3 2.2 0.3 0.0
American 22.1% 12.5 7.6 1.7 0.3 0.0
Bucknell 6.9% 2.6 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
Lafayette 1.5% 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boston University 3.4% 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Navy 1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
Lehigh 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Army 6.1% 2.8 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Loyola Maryland 1.6% 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Holy Cross 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 31.7% 31.7% 0.0% 16   0.1 0.5 2.7 10.1 18.2 68.3 0.0%
American 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 3.5 13.8 82.1 0.0%
Bucknell 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 10.4 88.6 0.0%
Lafayette 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 7.7 92.0 0.0%
Boston University 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 7.0 92.7 0.0%
Navy 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 5.5 94.5 0.0%
Lehigh 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 4.4 95.5 0.0%
Army 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 6.3 93.4 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.1 3.8 96.1 0.0%
Holy Cross 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.1 3.0 96.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 31.7% 9.2% 28.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 18.0% 8.0% 14.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 11.4% 8.2% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 8.0% 6.7% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 7.3% 6.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 5.5% 5.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 4.5% 4.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 6.6% 5.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.9% 3.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 3.1% 2.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 72.0% 0.7 28.0 72.0
2nd Round 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0