Patriot League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
183 Colgate 28.0%   16   0 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 14 12 - 6 -1.3      -2.8 257 +1.5 129 65.7 279 -5.9 265 0.0 1
231 Bucknell 16.7%   4 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 14 11 - 7 -3.4      -2.9 260 -0.6 191 69.7 168 +1.3 174 0.0 1
244 Lafayette 12.8%   1 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 8 -4.3      -3.7 282 -0.5 187 64.3 316 -6.5 276 0.0 1
263 American 9.8%   1 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 16 10 - 8 -5.3      -0.3 183 -5.0 329 59.4 359 -7.7 287 0.0 1
283 Lehigh 8.4%   0 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 9 -6.2      -2.7 255 -3.5 292 73.7 70 -7.0 282 0.0 1
288 Boston University 7.5%   1 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 9 -6.3      -3.9 285 -2.4 254 65.1 298 -14.3 338 0.0 1
294 Army 6.5%   2 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -7.0      -4.1 293 -2.8 265 61.6 349 -3.1 227 0.0 1
310 Navy 4.2%   1 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 10 -8.3      -3.6 278 -4.7 323 67.2 245 -12.8 325 0.0 1
315 Holy Cross 4.1%   3 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 -8.5      -1.0 200 -7.5 358 64.8 304 +3.6 128 0.0 1
336 Loyola Maryland 2.0%   1 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 12 -10.6      -7.3 348 -3.3 287 66.4 265 -9.1 303 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 2.8 39.0 19.6 13.2 9.3 6.4 4.6 3.5 2.3 1.4 0.7
Bucknell 3.6 22.0 18.6 15.3 12.4 9.7 7.9 5.7 4.2 2.7 1.5
Lafayette 4.2 16.9 15.8 14.1 12.5 10.7 9.3 7.3 6.5 4.1 2.9
American 4.7 12.5 12.6 13.0 12.6 11.9 10.4 9.0 8.1 6.0 4.0
Lehigh 5.2 9.6 10.7 10.6 11.8 11.8 11.1 10.5 10.2 8.2 5.7
Boston University 5.3 8.4 10.9 11.2 11.6 11.6 11.1 11.5 9.7 7.9 6.1
Army 5.6 6.9 9.0 9.9 10.9 11.6 11.5 11.7 11.2 9.4 7.9
Navy 6.4 3.5 7.0 6.9 8.9 10.0 11.1 12.2 13.8 14.0 12.4
Holy Cross 6.4 3.7 6.1 7.7 8.6 10.0 11.0 12.4 13.8 14.1 12.7
Loyola Maryland 7.5 1.5 2.8 3.9 5.7 6.7 8.7 11.1 14.2 19.2 26.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 3.4 4.5 7.3 9.9 11.3 13.1 13.3 12.1 10.0 7.0 3.7 1.1
Bucknell 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.3 8.3 10.9 11.9 14.0 12.8 11.5 8.3 5.5 3.2 1.1 0.2
Lafayette 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.2 5.5 7.4 9.6 11.6 13.0 12.4 11.4 9.1 6.8 4.2 1.8 0.8 0.1
American 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.6 7.2 9.0 11.1 12.9 12.7 11.8 9.1 6.7 5.3 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.1
Lehigh 9 - 9 0.0 0.4 0.9 2.2 3.6 6.3 8.8 10.9 12.3 12.1 11.8 10.1 8.1 5.7 3.7 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0
Boston University 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.8 6.1 8.9 11.1 12.7 12.6 11.7 10.1 7.8 5.9 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1
Army 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.7 5.0 7.3 9.9 11.4 12.9 12.6 10.7 9.3 6.7 4.5 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
Navy 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 2.5 4.8 7.3 10.2 12.1 12.7 12.4 11.2 8.9 6.6 4.8 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 7 - 11 0.2 0.8 2.5 4.9 7.9 10.7 12.0 12.3 12.4 11.5 8.4 6.7 4.8 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 6 - 12 0.8 3.0 6.1 9.6 11.9 13.1 13.9 11.7 9.2 8.1 5.2 3.2 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 39.0% 28.7 7.9 2.0 0.3 0.1
Bucknell 22.0% 14.4 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.1
Lafayette 16.9% 10.4 4.7 1.5 0.3 0.0
American 12.5% 7.4 3.7 1.1 0.2
Lehigh 9.6% 5.8 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
Boston University 8.4% 5.1 2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0
Army 6.9% 4.1 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.1
Navy 3.5% 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
Holy Cross 3.7% 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 1.5% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 28.0% 28.0% 0.0% 16   0.1 0.9 3.0 5.8 7.3 11.0 72.0 0.0%
Bucknell 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 2.8 5.5 7.4 83.3 0.0%
Lafayette 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.2 8.0 87.2 0.0%
American 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.2 0.6 2.0 7.0 90.2 0.0%
Lehigh 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 5.9 91.6 0.0%
Boston University 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 6.4 92.5 0.0%
Army 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 4.6 93.5 0.0%
Navy 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.9 95.8 0.0%
Holy Cross 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.2 95.9 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.9 98.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 28.0% 6.4% 25.4% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 16.7% 3.7% 14.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 12.8% 5.2% 10.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 9.8% 4.9% 7.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 8.4% 4.1% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 7.5% 4.8% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 6.5% 3.0% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 4.2% 3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 4.1% 2.4% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.0% 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 80.3% 0.8 19.7 80.3
2nd Round 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0