Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
169 Navy 27.8%   16   1 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 -0.8      -0.6 177 -0.2 174 67.4 222 +8.2 28 0.0 1
201 Colgate 20.9%   0 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 6 -2.3      -0.6 178 -1.7 222 67.4 220 +4.7 73 0.0 1
254 Boston University 12.0%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 8 -5.0      -3.5 280 -1.4 208 60.4 353 +11.8 13 0.0 1
273 Bucknell 9.2%   1 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 9 - 9 -5.8      -3.8 287 -2.0 237 68.8 173 +4.9 68 0.0 1
291 Lafayette 6.8%   0 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 9 -7.0      -4.2 305 -2.8 270 65.9 255 -6.9 328 0.0 1
292 American 6.6%   0 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 9 -7.1      -4.1 299 -3.0 280 67.8 202 -1.8 288 0.0 1
294 Lehigh 6.3%   0 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -7.3      -4.6 310 -2.7 267 67.5 218 +13.6 10 0.0 1
309 Loyola Maryland 5.1%   0 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -7.9      -4.9 316 -3.0 282 66.4 238 -11.0 341 0.0 1
329 Holy Cross 3.1%   0 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 20 7 - 11 -9.7      -3.9 292 -5.9 347 69.2 159 -2.0 290 0.0 1
343 Army 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 12 -11.0      -5.7 336 -5.3 337 69.0 168 0.0 121 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 2.7 38.8 21.1 13.5 9.2 6.5 4.5 2.9 2.0 1.0 0.5
Colgate 3.3 28.0 20.1 14.9 11.1 8.1 6.5 4.6 3.4 2.2 1.0
Boston University 4.5 13.5 14.8 14.0 13.3 10.7 9.7 8.6 6.9 5.4 3.2
Bucknell 4.9 10.8 12.0 12.4 12.5 11.6 11.1 9.5 8.4 6.9 4.8
Lafayette 5.5 7.1 9.6 10.6 11.3 11.8 11.7 11.0 10.9 9.2 6.8
American 5.5 7.0 9.1 10.4 11.5 11.8 11.5 11.2 10.6 9.4 7.5
Lehigh 5.6 6.4 9.1 10.6 11.2 11.3 11.7 11.6 10.9 9.5 7.7
Loyola Maryland 5.9 5.5 7.7 9.2 10.0 11.1 11.6 11.9 12.2 11.4 9.4
Holy Cross 6.8 2.7 4.4 6.1 8.0 9.1 10.8 12.9 14.5 15.8 15.7
Army 7.3 1.9 3.4 4.6 5.8 7.8 9.3 11.3 13.7 18.2 24.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.2 6.1 8.4 10.5 12.3 13.2 13.0 11.4 8.5 4.9 1.8
Colgate 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.4 6.3 7.9 10.1 11.9 12.3 12.1 10.6 8.8 5.7 2.8 0.9
Boston University 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.5 4.3 6.2 7.9 9.8 10.9 11.9 11.5 10.4 8.5 6.4 4.1 2.2 0.9 0.2
Bucknell 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.5 5.6 7.4 9.1 10.8 11.7 11.1 10.8 8.5 7.4 5.2 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.1
Lafayette 9 - 9 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.8 5.3 7.5 9.1 10.6 11.4 11.5 10.9 9.2 7.2 5.6 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
American 9 - 9 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.3 5.2 7.4 8.9 11.0 11.3 11.5 10.8 9.4 6.8 5.4 3.2 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.1
Lehigh 8 - 10 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.5 5.8 7.5 9.1 11.1 11.6 11.1 10.7 8.8 7.2 5.0 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 2.2 4.2 6.5 8.9 10.4 11.3 11.5 10.8 9.6 8.3 5.9 4.3 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Holy Cross 7 - 11 0.5 2.1 4.3 7.0 9.6 11.4 11.7 12.0 11.1 9.6 7.1 5.6 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Army 6 - 12 1.4 3.9 6.9 9.5 11.6 11.9 11.8 11.0 9.2 7.5 5.9 3.8 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 38.8% 29.0 7.8 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Colgate 28.0% 19.7 6.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boston University 13.5% 8.6 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bucknell 10.8% 6.7 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lafayette 7.1% 4.1 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
American 7.0% 4.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lehigh 6.4% 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 5.5% 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 2.7% 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Army 1.9% 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 27.8% 27.8% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 5.6 7.5 7.2 5.6 72.2 0.0%
Colgate 20.9% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.5 5.4 6.1 5.4 79.1 0.0%
Boston University 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 3.9 4.7 88.0 0.0%
Bucknell 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.1 4.7 90.8 0.0%
Lafayette 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.8 4.9 93.2 0.0%
American 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 4.2 93.4 0.0%
Lehigh 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.2 93.7 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.9 94.9 0.0%
Holy Cross 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.6 96.9 0.0%
Army 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 97.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 27.8% 2.4% 28.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 20.9% 2.9% 20.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 12.0% 2.7% 11.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 9.2% 2.8% 8.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 6.8% 3.2% 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 6.6% 2.7% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 6.3% 2.1% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 5.1% 2.7% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 3.1% 2.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 2.1% 1.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 89.5% 1.0 10.5 83.4 6.2
2nd Round 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0