Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
179 Colgate 28.8%   16   4 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 6 -1.4      -0.4 171 -1.0 200 67.4 241 +0.2 165 0.0 1
197 Navy 23.4%   4 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 -2.3      -2.1 226 -0.3 172 67.4 245 -3.4 220 0.0 1
242 American 14.1%   5 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 -4.5      -3.1 252 -1.4 211 72.8 104 -2.2 201 0.0 1
253 Boston University 11.8%   3 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 8 -5.1      +1.4 134 -6.5 350 60.4 359 -5.3 247 0.0 1
286 Holy Cross 6.4%   3 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -7.1      -3.2 253 -3.9 308 65.1 295 -3.5 223 0.0 1
307 Lehigh 4.4%   2 - 8 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 10 -8.1      -4.5 292 -3.7 291 67.5 238 -11.4 320 0.0 1
316 Bucknell 3.7%   2 - 9 0 - 0 10 - 21 8 - 10 -8.6      -4.5 295 -4.1 317 68.8 201 -10.4 309 0.0 1
321 Loyola Maryland 3.4%   2 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -9.1      -3.7 268 -5.4 340 69.0 194 -13.8 341 0.0 1
327 Lafayette 2.7%   2 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 21 7 - 11 -9.8      -6.1 330 -3.8 300 68.0 220 -12.9 335 0.0 1
340 Army 1.4%   2 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 12 -11.3      -5.3 314 -6.0 346 69.0 195 -10.5 310 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 242 American 75 267 Drexel 73   
Wed, Dec 3 351 Delaware St. 59 197 Navy 66   
Wed, Dec 3 286 Holy Cross 76 228 Northeastern 59   
Wed, Dec 3 54 Akron 97 316 Bucknell 77   
Wed, Dec 3 208 Hampton 93 321 Loyola Maryland 71   
Fri, Dec 5 327 Lafayette 79 324 Mercyhurst 71   
Sat, Dec 6 229 Fordham 69 286 Holy Cross 70   
Sat, Dec 6 227 LIU Brooklyn 87 307 Lehigh 82   
Sat, Dec 6 316 Bucknell 66 259 Maryland Baltimore Co. 73   
Sat, Dec 6 253 Boston University 82 335 New Hampshire 88   
Sat, Dec 6 242 American 78 345 Maryland Eastern Shore 60   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 331 Air Force 61 197 Navy 72 84%   
Mon, Dec 8 327 Lafayette 71 248 Penn 79 78%   
Tue, Dec 9 316 Bucknell 70 336 Rider 71 54%   
Tue, Dec 9 321 Loyola Maryland 74 341 VMI 75 53%   
Wed, Dec 10 179 Colgate 66 108 St. Bonaventure 74 79%   
Wed, Dec 10 253 Boston University 69 328 Maine 62 77%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 2.5 41.5 22.5 13.4 8.8 5.8 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.3
Navy 2.8 32.8 23.1 15.5 10.4 7.1 4.8 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.4
American 3.9 16.9 17.5 17.1 13.8 10.9 8.3 6.5 4.6 2.8 1.7
Boston University 4.2 13.9 15.8 15.3 14.5 11.9 9.9 7.5 5.5 3.6 2.1
Holy Cross 5.3 6.3 9.8 11.7 13.0 13.0 12.3 11.4 9.7 7.7 5.1
Lehigh 5.9 4.0 6.8 9.2 11.7 12.3 13.0 12.9 11.9 10.6 7.6
Bucknell 6.2 3.0 5.5 8.1 10.4 12.1 13.1 13.5 13.3 11.9 9.2
Loyola Maryland 6.5 2.8 4.9 7.4 9.2 11.0 12.1 13.1 13.7 13.7 12.2
Lafayette 6.9 1.8 3.6 5.7 7.8 9.9 11.9 13.4 14.9 15.7 15.4
Army 7.6 0.9 1.9 3.3 5.0 7.4 9.6 12.3 15.2 19.1 25.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.6 6.1 8.8 11.7 14.0 15.0 14.5 11.2 7.2 3.2 0.9
Navy 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.0 7.6 10.4 13.3 14.7 14.8 12.3 9.0 5.0 2.0 0.5
American 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.0 6.4 9.2 11.6 13.5 14.1 13.1 10.1 7.1 4.2 2.0 0.6 0.1
Boston University 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.9 7.8 10.6 12.7 14.0 13.3 11.7 9.0 6.0 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1
Holy Cross 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.5 6.0 9.0 11.8 13.6 13.6 12.5 10.5 7.7 4.8 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lehigh 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.0 8.4 11.2 13.4 14.0 13.2 11.3 8.2 5.6 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bucknell 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 6.3 9.1 12.6 14.1 14.0 12.8 10.3 7.1 4.5 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.3 7.4 10.7 12.8 14.0 13.3 11.2 9.1 6.5 4.0 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
Lafayette 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 2.7 5.9 9.0 12.0 13.8 14.5 12.8 10.7 7.3 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Army 6 - 12 0.5 2.2 5.4 9.2 12.5 14.2 14.6 13.5 10.7 7.5 4.7 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 41.5% 30.0 9.2 1.9 0.4 0.0
Navy 32.8% 22.3 8.3 1.8 0.4 0.0
American 16.9% 10.5 4.8 1.4 0.3 0.0
Boston University 13.9% 8.2 4.2 1.1 0.3 0.0
Holy Cross 6.3% 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
Lehigh 4.0% 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Bucknell 3.0% 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
Loyola Maryland 2.8% 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 1.8% 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Army 0.9% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 28.8% 28.8% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 7.1 10.9 7.8 71.2 0.0%
Navy 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.6 7.7 10.8 76.6 0.0%
American 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.6 8.0 85.9 0.0%
Boston University 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 8.2 88.2 0.0%
Holy Cross 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 5.1 93.6 0.0%
Lehigh 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.2 95.6 0.0%
Bucknell 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.6 96.3 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.3 96.6 0.0%
Lafayette 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.1 2.6 97.3 0.0%
Army 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 98.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 28.8% 3.0% 27.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 23.4% 5.0% 21.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 14.1% 3.9% 12.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 11.8% 5.0% 9.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 6.4% 3.4% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 4.4% 3.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 3.7% 3.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.4% 3.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 2.7% 2.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 82.9% 0.8 17.1 82.9
2nd Round 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0