Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
194 Navy 29.0%   16   12 - 6 6 - 1 -2.2      -3.2 264 +1.0 133 66.5 247 -1.5 195 +1.8 1
199 Colgate 27.1%   9 - 9 5 - 2 -2.5      +0.1 163 -2.6 255 67.4 225 -2.5 212 -2.3 3
224 American 20.2%   10 - 8 5 - 2 -3.7      -2.8 251 -0.9 202 68.0 211 -1.4 190 -1.3 2
285 Boston University 7.0%   7 - 12 3 - 4 -7.0      +0.1 159 -7.2 352 61.0 354 -8.6 309 -10.0 6
307 Lehigh 5.0%   6 - 12 4 - 3 -8.4      -4.6 297 -3.7 286 67.7 220 -9.3 314 -6.1 4
314 Lafayette 2.7%   4 - 15 2 - 5 -9.3      -5.5 313 -3.8 290 67.8 218 -12.4 339 -11.9 8
319 Bucknell 2.5%   6 - 14 3 - 4 -9.8      -7.2 340 -2.7 259 68.2 205 -9.5 318 -10.3 7
320 Holy Cross 3.1%   6 - 12 3 - 4 -9.8      -5.3 307 -4.6 306 64.5 295 -7.1 276 -8.0 5
324 Loyola Maryland 2.1%   4 - 14 2 - 5 -10.0      -3.7 276 -6.3 341 69.7 161 -14.4 347 -12.1 10
333 Army 1.4%   6 - 12 2 - 5 -10.8      -2.9 253 -7.9 356 67.6 222 -9.4 316 -11.9 9


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Jan 19 307 Lehigh 88 324 Loyola Maryland 81   
Wed, Jan 21 224 American 70 199 Colgate 66   
Wed, Jan 21 285 Boston University 77 314 Lafayette 73   
Wed, Jan 21 320 Holy Cross 68 194 Navy 85   
Wed, Jan 21 333 Army 87 319 Bucknell 84   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 24 285 Boston University 70 199 Colgate 77 76%   
Sat, Jan 24 314 Lafayette 70 307 Lehigh 74 65%   
Sat, Jan 24 319 Bucknell 72 324 Loyola Maryland 75 61%   
Sat, Jan 24 224 American 72 320 Holy Cross 68 62%   
Sat, Jan 24 333 Army 67 194 Navy 78 86%   
Mon, Jan 26 319 Bucknell 68 314 Lafayette 72 63%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.6 59.3 23.1 14.0 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Colgate 2.1 35.2 32.9 22.7 5.9 2.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
American 2.3 26.7 34.7 26.2 7.8 2.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Boston University 5.4 1.0 3.9 9.2 22.8 20.9 15.6 11.2 7.8 5.2 2.4
Lehigh 4.9 1.6 5.9 12.2 27.3 20.2 13.5 8.9 5.8 3.4 1.1
Lafayette 7.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 8.9 13.1 14.9 16.2 15.7 15.0 13.1
Bucknell 6.7 0.2 1.2 3.5 11.2 14.7 15.9 16.4 15.4 12.7 8.7
Holy Cross 6.2 0.3 1.9 5.3 15.6 17.9 16.4 14.4 12.2 9.9 6.1
Loyola Maryland 7.4 0.1 0.4 1.6 6.5 10.5 13.4 15.3 16.8 18.3 17.1
Army 7.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 5.1 8.8 11.6 14.7 17.1 18.8 22.6

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 13 - 5 19 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 8.4 14.9 20.8 22.4 17.6 8.7 2.4
Colgate 13 - 5 17 - 12 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.1 7.4 14.2 20.9 22.7 18.5 9.5 2.4
American 12 - 6 17 - 12 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.4 9.7 16.1 21.7 21.6 15.4 7.5 1.7
Boston University 8 - 10 12 - 18 0.1 1.1 4.0 9.3 16.3 20.5 20.0 15.4 8.7 3.5 1.1 0.1
Lehigh 9 - 9 11 - 18 0.3 2.1 6.9 13.0 19.1 21.2 17.3 11.7 6.0 2.0 0.5 0.0
Lafayette 7 - 11 9 - 21 0.4 2.2 6.8 14.0 19.7 21.1 17.5 11.0 5.1 1.7 0.3 0.1
Bucknell 7 - 11 10 - 21 1.0 4.9 11.5 18.9 21.6 18.7 12.9 6.8 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
Holy Cross 8 - 10 11 - 18 0.5 2.8 8.3 15.4 20.0 20.4 16.2 9.8 4.5 1.6 0.4 0.0
Loyola Maryland 6 - 12 8 - 21 0.6 3.4 9.4 16.8 21.7 20.7 15.0 7.8 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
Army 6 - 12 10 - 19 0.9 4.8 11.7 18.6 22.2 19.7 12.6 6.5 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 59.3% 43.1 13.1 2.8 0.2 0.0
Colgate 35.2% 20.9 11.4 2.7 0.2
American 26.7% 13.9 10.0 2.6 0.2 0.0
Boston University 1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
Lehigh 1.6% 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bucknell 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Army 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 29.0% 29.0% 0.0% 16   0.1 1.1 4.9 14.0 8.9 71.0 0.0%
Colgate 27.1% 27.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.7 12.3 10.2 72.9 0.0%
American 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.0 8.6 9.1 79.8 0.0%
Boston University 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 6.5 93.0 0.0%
Lehigh 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 4.8 95.1 0.0%
Lafayette 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 2.7 97.3 0.0%
Bucknell 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 2.5 97.5 0.0%
Holy Cross 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.0 96.9 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 2.1 97.9 0.0%
Army 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 98.6 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 86.1% 0.9 13.9 86.1
2nd Round 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 29.0% 2.0% 28.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 27.1% 2.8% 25.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 20.2% 2.6% 18.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 7.0% 5.2% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 5.0% 4.3% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 2.7% 2.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 2.5% 2.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 3.1% 2.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.1% 2.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 1.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%