Colgate
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.8 209
Expected Predictive Rating -2.2 207
Pace 67.4 218
Improvement -2.0 267

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #198 C+ D+ C+ D D
Defense C- #228 C C+ D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 241 58% 178 -1.3 229
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 70 44% 39 +3.9 30
Three Pointers 37% 262 35% 113 -1.1 221
1st FG Attempt 1.05 125 +1.6 125
Second Chance 27.2% 276 0.96 277 0.26 294
Turnovers 16.3% 146
Freethrows 0.26 313 72% 198 0.19 304
Total Offense -1.1 198

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 137 60% 229 -1.7 236
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 182 36% 109 +0.4 157
Three Pointers 39% 240 34% 179 +0.9 143
1st FG Attempt 1.03 191 -0.5 191
Second Chance 30.5% 179 0.98 111 0.30 141
Turnovers 15.5% 267
Freethrows 0.32 239 72% 203 0.23 239
Total Defense -1.7 228

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.9 299 +0.1 190
Shot Type Accuracy +2.5 96 +0.3 196
Possession Length 17.6 216 17.3 182
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 185 0.14 81
Improvement -2.4 #308 +0.4 #158

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25% 26% 23%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 99% 100% 99%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 14% 25% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 1% 3%
First Round24% 26% 22%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Navy (Home) - 53.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 416 - 618 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 10 @Michigan St. L 69 - 80 2% -6  3% 0 - 1 B+ +12 B+ +8 A+ D+ D+ B- +4 A+ D+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 269 Northeastern L 65 - 68 73% +1  65% 0 - 2 D- -12 F -15 F+ F B- B- +2 B+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 217 Drexel W 90 - 83 62% +7  81% 1 - 2 C +1 A+ +15 A+ D+ D- F -14 F C- D-
 Fri, Nov 14 6 @Illinois L 65 - 84 1% -11  1% 1 - 3 B- +5 C +1 B- D+ A B- +3 A+ C- D
 Mon, Nov 17 181 @Siena W 72 - 69 33% +0  46% 2 - 3 C+ +5 C+ +3 B D+ B- C+ +2 B- D- D+
 Thu, Nov 20 159 @Cornell L 94 - 95 2OT 30% +0  43% 2 - 4 C+ +2 F+ -9 F+ D- C+ A +11 B A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 325 Albany W 69 - 67 76% -2  29% 3 - 4 D -8 D -6 B- F C+ C- -2 F A- C-
 Sun, Nov 30 157 Fordham W 72 - 62 40% +9  93% 4 - 4 B +10 B +5 A F+ C+ B +5 B- B- C+
 Wed, Dec 10 134 @St. Bonaventure L 77 - 85 24% +3  62% 4 - 5 C- -3 C+ +2 D A- A+ D+ -5 C C C
 Sun, Dec 21 4 @Florida L 60 - 90 1% -17  4% 4 - 6 C- -4 C+ +3 A+ D+ F+ F+ -9 D+ F D+
 Sun, Dec 28 153 Harvard L 69 - 78 50% -2  30% 4 - 7 D- -12 D- -7 D+ D+ D+ D -6 F A- F+
 Wed, Dec 31 319 @Lafayette W 85 - 77 66% +1  61% 5 - 7 1 - 0 C +1 B- +4 B+ F B C- -3 C- F+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 341 @Army W 76 - 69 72% +3  70% 6 - 7 2 - 0 C- -2 B +6 C+ D B+ D- -7 D+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 258 American W 64 - 62 71% -5  9% 7 - 7 3 - 0 D+ -7 D+ -4 D C- B- C- -2 F A B-
 Sat, Jan 10 306 Lehigh L 77 - 78 79% -2  26% 7 - 8 3 - 1 D- -12 C+ +2 B- D- C+ F -15 F+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 14 312 @Loyola Maryland W 86 - 80 62% +3  83% 8 - 8 4 - 1 C -0 B- +5 C- D+ B D+ -5 D+ B F
 Sat, Jan 17 324 Bucknell W 95 - 76 83% +14  97% 9 - 8 5 - 1 B- +6 A +13 A+ A B+ D -7 D+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 258 @American L 66 - 70 49% -1  44% 9 - 9 5 - 2 D+ -7 D- -8 D F+ D+ C+ +1 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 275 Boston University W 80 - 79 OT 74% -3  10% 10 - 9 6 - 2 D -8 D- -7 C B- F C -1 D A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 321 Holy Cross W 79 - 74 83% -0  38% 11 - 9 7 - 2 D -8 C+ +2 C- B- A F+ -10 F B F
 Sat, Jan 31 306 @Lehigh L 76 - 77 OT 60% -1  30% 11 - 10 7 - 3 D+ -6 D+ -3 D+ A F+ D+ -4 F D+ A+
 Wed, Feb 4 341 Army W 69 - 55 87% +8  57% 12 - 10 8 - 3 C -1 F+ -9 C- D F A- +9 B+ B+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 324 @Bucknell W 78 - 59 66% +14  99% 13 - 10 9 - 3 B+ +12 D+ -3 D D- A- A+ +14 A+ B- D
 Wed, Feb 11 321 @Holy Cross W 74 - 70 66% +5  77% 14 - 10 10 - 3 C- -3 D+ -3 F B- B C +0 A- D C+
 Sat, Feb 14 166 Navy W 70 - 69 53%
 Mon, Feb 16 275 @Boston University W 73 - 72 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 312 Loyola Maryland W 79 - 70 81%
 Wed, Feb 25 319 Lafayette W 76 - 66 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 166 @Navy L 67 - 72 30%
Totals 17 - 12 13 - 5 -3 C- -1 C+ D+ C+ C- -2 C C+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C B+ B- B- 36% 26% 37% D C+ D+ D+ D+ C+ D C D C- C- B- C C 40% 21% 39% C C C C+ C+ D+ C- C C-
1.07 58% 44% 35% +2 -1 1.05 27% 1.0 .26 16% .26 72% .19 1.11 60% 36% 34% 0 0 1.03 30% 1.0 .30 15% .32 72% .19
Nov
3		 Michigan St. B+ A+ A A A+ 24% 24% 52% C- A+ F A+ D+ D+ F D- F B- D- A+ A+ A+ 34% 32% 34% B+ A+ D- C+ D+ D- F A+ F
1.00 69% 46% 39% +9 -1 1.17 10% 1.0 .10 19% .11 67% .07 1.16 69% 20% 25% -7 -2 0.85 46% 1.1 .49 14% .62 65% .41
Nov
7		 Northeastern F D A+ F F+ 41% 24% 35% D F+ D F F B- D- A D+ B- D- A+ A+ A- 51% 12% 37% F+ B+ C A+ A+ F F D F
0.97 55% 58% 24% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.6 .18 16% .28 81% .23 1.01 65% 17% 21% -6 +2 0.94 28% 0.4 .10 10% .42 72% .30
Nov
11		 Drexel A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 33% 28% D A+ F A+ D+ D- A+ A+ A+ F B- F F F 39% 4% 57% F F F A- C- D- C A+ B
1.30 65% 64% 58% +21 -1 1.42 17% 1.7 .28 19% .48 89% .42 1.19 52% 50% 45% +8 +2 1.22 38% 0.7 .28 16% .26 53% .14
Nov
14		 Illinois C A+ B- F+ B+ 19% 49% 32% F B- F+ B D+ A C- A+ C+ B- C+ A+ A A+ 25% 15% 60% B+ A+ D B- C- D F F F
0.97 73% 39% 28% +1 -5 0.93 17% 1.0 .17 7% .15 89% .13 1.26 62% 25% 28% -6 0 0.89 45% 1.2 .52 10% .40 88% .35
Nov
17		 Siena C+ C+ A+ D- B- 55% 23% 21% B+ B F A D+ B- B- B+ B C+ B- F+ A B- 36% 32% 32% C+ B- F+ C- D- D+ D- F F
1.12 62% 55% 30% +5 +1 1.13 22% 1.2 .26 16% .31 76% .24 1.07 56% 50% 25% -1 -2 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 16% .33 83% .28
Nov
20		 Cornell F+ B- D F F+ 43% 27% 30% D F+ D- C D- C+ F A- F A D+ A+ C B+ 40% 11% 49% C B A+ A+ A+ B- F F+ F
1.02 66% 35% 27% 0 0 1.00 24% 1.2 .29 14% .17 77% .13 1.04 64% 29% 35% +3 +1 1.10 20% 0.3 .05 20% .41 80% .33
Nov
28		 Albany D B- C- A- B 31% 21% 48% D B- F F F C+ F F F C- C+ D- F F 43% 21% 36% C F B+ A- A- C- A+ A+ A+
1.07 63% 36% 40% +5 -1 1.12 26% 0.9 .24 14% .16 33% .05 1.04 57% 45% 42% +5 0 1.13 26% 0.8 .19 19% .06 33% .02
Nov
30		 Fordham B B+ A+ B+ A+ 29% 22% 49% C+ A A- F F+ C+ D- A+ C- B C+ A- A B 45% 24% 31% C- B- A- D+ B- C+ A F B+
1.12 64% 55% 38% +8 -1 1.16 35% 0.5 .18 16% .20 82% .17 0.96 57% 33% 25% -6 0 0.90 29% 1.0 .29 19% .13 86% .11
Dec
10		 St. Bonaventure C+ B- B- F D 37% 30% 33% D- D B+ B- A- A+ C F F D+ F C+ A+ C- 38% 33% 29% B+ C F A- C C F D F
1.10 62% 41% 26% -1 -1 0.96 37% 1.1 .41 9% .30 53% .16 1.22 75% 41% 27% +4 -2 1.08 43% 0.8 .35 17% .42 79% .33
Dec
21		 Florida C+ F C A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% C- A+ D+ F+ D+ F+ F F F F+ D F B- D+ 48% 10% 42% C D+ F D+ F D+ F B+ F
0.93 29% 35% 65% +5 -2 1.08 17% 0.5 .09 20% .15 38% .06 1.39 70% 60% 30% +5 +2 1.17 56% 1.1 .61 14% .48 67% .32
Dec
28		 Harvard D- B+ F D- D+ 48% 20% 31% C D+ F A+ D+ D+ F A F+ D C A+ F F 38% 20% 42% B- F A+ F A- F+ A+ C- A+
1.00 65% 18% 29% -3 +1 0.98 19% 1.3 .25 17% .18 80% .14 1.13 57% 27% 57% +12 0 1.25 13% 1.3 .17 15% .10 83% .09
Dec
31		 Lafayette B- B+ A+ B- B+ 40% 23% 37% C B+ F F F B A+ C- A+ C- C+ F A C- 45% 16% 39% C- C- A F F+ C F C F
1.16 67% 50% 37% +8 0 1.17 23% 0.4 .09 12% .51 73% .37 1.05 55% 50% 26% -4 +1 0.96 18% 1.8 .32 16% .46 68% .31
Jan
3		 Army B D+ B- A+ B- 33% 20% 47% D+ C+ C+ F D B+ D- A+ C D- B+ A- D- D+ 40% 9% 51% D+ D+ F+ F F F F A+ D
1.24 56% 40% 43% +7 0 1.14 33% 0.9 .30 11% .30 88% .26 1.13 47% 25% 38% -3 +2 1.00 35% 1.2 .41 13% .38 55% .21
Jan
7		 American D+ C- F B- D 50% 24% 26% C+ D B+ F C- B- A F C C- B B- F F 57% 6% 36% F F B+ A+ A B- A+ A+ A+
1.08 57% 30% 36% -1 0 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 17% .47 61% .28 1.04 52% 33% 53% +6 +3 1.21 21% 0.5 .10 19% .12 50% .06
Jan
10		 Lehigh C+ F A+ A+ B- 45% 27% 29% C- B- C+ F D- C+ B+ B- A- F B A+ F F+ 45% 20% 35% F+ F+ F A+ C- F F D- F
1.18 45% 62% 43% +4 0 1.10 36% 0.8 .27 15% .38 76% .29 1.20 50% 20% 59% +6 0 1.14 37% 0.6 .24 11% .45 77% .34
Jan
14		 Loyola Maryland B- B+ C- B C+ 29% 36% 35% F C- F A+ D+ B B+ A A D+ D- C C+ D 29% 19% 53% A- D+ B- A- B F F B+ D-
1.19 69% 40% 37% +5 -3 1.07 21% 1.6 .33 12% .35 82% .28 1.11 65% 36% 32% 0 0 1.02 25% 0.8 .20 8% .35 65% .23
Jan
17		 Bucknell A A+ A A+ A+ 33% 19% 48% C A+ C+ A+ A B+ B D- C+ D F A- A+ C- 41% 8% 51% F D+ A+ F C+ F F F F
1.33 76% 50% 44% +16 0 1.33 34% 1.4 .48 14% .36 68% .24 1.06 67% 25% 23% -6 +2 0.94 16% 1.6 .26 15% .40 92% .36
Jan
21		 American D- B- C+ D C- 30% 36% 34% F D D- F F+ D+ B F+ C C+ D+ A+ C- C+ 45% 16% 39% C- C F F F A+ D F F+
0.98 64% 41% 31% +2 -3 1.00 25% 0.8 .19 19% .42 65% .28 1.04 60% 14% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 1.3 .48 28% .29 86% .25
Jan
24		 Boston University D- F C+ A+ C+ 41% 30% 30% D C B+ D+ B- F F F F C F+ F A+ D 46% 15% 40% D- D A A+ A+ C- F D F
1.10 45% 44% 56% +7 -1 1.13 36% 1.0 .36 19% .20 58% .12 1.09 68% 86% 26% +7 +1 1.19 18% 0.6 .11 18% .45 74% .33
Jan
28		 Holy Cross C+ F A A C 38% 32% 30% F C- C- A- B- A F+ B- D- F+ F F C F 35% 27% 38% C- F A+ F B F A A+ A+
1.19 48% 50% 41% +3 -2 1.05 28% 1.3 .36 9% .20 75% .15 1.12 68% 60% 33% +9 -1 1.18 7% 2.0 .14 11% .17 50% .08
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Lehigh D+ C A+ F D+ 46% 30% 24% D+ D+ C A+ A F+ B- A+ A- D+ B D F F 38% 15% 48% F F B F D+ A+ B- D- C+
1.07 57% 67% 8% -1 -1 0.98 34% 1.4 .48 20% .35 85% .30 1.08 50% 43% 52% +11 +1 1.25 18% 1.4 .25 25% .24 77% .19
Feb
4		 Army F+ B+ B- C- C 35% 33% 33% F C- A- F D F B- C B- A- B A- B B 22% 18% 60% A B+ B B+ B+ B F B F+
1.07 69% 40% 33% +4 -2 1.07 41% 0.8 .31 22% .38 74% .28 0.86 50% 25% 30% -8 -1 0.84 25% 0.8 .19 20% .35 67% .23
Feb
7		 Bucknell D+ C- A D- D 36% 26% 38% D+ D D- D+ D- A- C+ F+ C- A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ 31% 22% 47% B+ A+ A- F B- D F B- F
1.06 58% 50% 30% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.0 .26 14% .33 67% .22 0.80 53% 36% 13% -16 -1 0.67 19% 1.3 .24 18% .45 74% .33
Feb
11		 Holy Cross D+ F+ C F+ F 39% 28% 33% D- F F+ A+ B- B C+ A+ B C D- B- A+ B+ 22% 33% 45% A- A- F A+ D C+ F F F
1.08 52% 40% 28% -5 -1 0.91 21% 1.7 .36 12% .28 82% .23 1.02 64% 38% 23% -6 -3 0.84 39% 0.7 .26 18% .48 85% .41



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.7 6.6 6.8 14.1 1st
2nd 0.6 6.8 23.9 35.8 18.6 85.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.9 6.9 23.9 36.5 25.1 6.8 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 6.8    4.1 2.8
14-4 26.1% 6.6    1.3 5.3
13-5 1.9% 0.7    0.0 0.7
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 14.1% 14.1 5.4 8.7



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 6.8% 33.7% 33.7% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.7 4.5
14-4 25.1% 28.4% 28.4% 15.0 0.0 1.3 4.8 1.0 18.0
13-5 36.5% 25.1% 25.1% 15.3 0.6 4.9 3.7 27.3
12-6 23.9% 19.9% 19.9% 15.6 0.1 1.8 2.9 19.1
11-7 6.9% 18.4% 18.4% 15.7 0.3 0.9 5.6
10-8 0.9% 18.4% 18.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.7
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.8% 24.8% 0.0% 15.2 75.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 14.2 0.4 11.7 57.4 30.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 0.4%