Colgate
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.5 #199
Expected Predictive Rating -2.5 #212
Pace 67.4 #225
Improvement -2.2 #281

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #163 B D- C+ D D
Defense #255 C C D C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #256 1.21 #122 -0.7 #203
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #87 0.90 #33 +3.6 #36
Three Pointers 39% #221 1.11 #59 +0.7 #152
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #77 +3.6 #78
Freethrows 15.1 #309 71% #222 10.8 #301
Second Chance 25.6% #312 0.94 #304 0.24 #327
Turnovers 15.6% #125
Total Offense +0.1 #163

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #117 1.20 #235 -2.2 #255
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #192 0.66 #45 +1.2 #101
Three Pointers 39% #243 1.05 #221 +0.4 #160
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #198 -0.7 #200
Freethrows 18.0 #204 72% #184 13.0 #199
Second Chance 31.7% #235 0.97 #79 0.31 #150
Turnovers 14.3% #305
Total Defense -2.6 #255

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #287 0.5% #215
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.8% #51 0.8% #196
Possession Length 18.0 #240 17.2 #162
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #210 0.14 #75
Improvement -0.3 #197 -1.8 #291

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.1% 28.4% 22.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 90.9% 94.4% 79.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.6% 96.4%
Conference Champion 35.2% 40.3% 19.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.8% 2.2% 4.6%
First Round25.8% 27.5% 20.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston University (Home) - 76.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 416 - 618 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 11 @Michigan St. L 69 - 80 2% -6  0 - 1 +12 +12 A+ D+ D+ -0 A+ D D-
 Fri, Nov 7 259 Northeastern L 65 - 68 71% +1  0 - 2 -11 -11 F F B +0 A- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 203 Drexel W 90 - 83 62% +7  1 - 2 +1 +17 A+ D- F -16 F C F
 Fri, Nov 14 9 @Illinois L 65 - 84 2% -11  1 - 3 +4 +5 A- D- A+ -1 A+ C- F
 Mon, Nov 17 169 @Siena W 72 - 69 33% +0  2 - 3 +5 +7 A- D+ C+ -2 C D D+
 Thu, Nov 20 187 @Cornell L 94 - 95 2OT 36% +0  2 - 4 +0 -7 F C- C+ +7 B+ A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 305 Albany W 69 - 67 71% -2  3 - 4 -6 -2 B+ F C -4 F A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 30 193 Fordham W 72 - 62 49% +9  4 - 4 +8 +6 A+ F D +2 B B- C+
 Wed, Dec 10 136 @St. Bonaventure L 77 - 85 25% +3  4 - 5 -3 +5 D B+ A+ -8 C- C+ B-
 Sun, Dec 21 10 @Florida L 60 - 90 2% -17  4 - 6 -7 +3 A+ D- F -12 D F D
 Sun, Dec 28 168 Harvard L 69 - 78 55% -2  4 - 7 -13 -4 D+ D C- -9 F A F
 Wed, Dec 31 314 @Lafayette W 85 - 77 64% +1  5 - 7 1 - 0 +2 +6 B+ F B- -5 C- F C
 Sat, Jan 3 333 @Army W 76 - 69 69% +3  6 - 7 2 - 0 -1 +8 B- F B- -8 C- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 224 American W 64 - 62 66% -5  7 - 7 3 - 0 -5 +0 D+ C- C+ -5 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 307 Lehigh L 77 - 78 80% -2  7 - 8 3 - 1 -12 +5 B- F C+ -17 F C- F
 Wed, Jan 14 324 @Loyola Maryland W 86 - 80 67% +3  8 - 8 4 - 1 -1 +6 C- D B -7 C- A- F
 Sat, Jan 17 319 Bucknell W 95 - 76 83% +23  9 - 8 5 - 1 +6 +16 A+ A+ B+ -10 D+ C- C-
 Wed, Jan 21 224 @American L 66 - 70 43% -1  9 - 9 5 - 2 -5 -4 D+ F D+ -1 C+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 285 Boston University W 77 - 70 76%
 Wed, Jan 28 320 Holy Cross W 77 - 67 83%
 Sat, Jan 31 307 @Lehigh W 75 - 72 61%
 Wed, Feb 4 333 Army W 82 - 71 85%
 Sat, Feb 7 319 @Bucknell W 74 - 70 66%
 Wed, Feb 11 320 @Holy Cross W 74 - 70 65%
 Sat, Feb 14 194 Navy W 73 - 70 60%
 Mon, Feb 16 285 @Boston University W 74 - 73 56%
 Sat, Feb 21 324 Loyola Maryland W 81 - 71 83%
 Wed, Feb 25 314 Lafayette W 78 - 68 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 194 @Navy L 70 - 73 38%
Totals 17 - 12 13 - 5 -3 +0 B D- C+ -3 C C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.2 8.1 13.2 9.1 2.4 35.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.0 10.7 12.3 5.1 0.4 32.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.4 8.5 7.8 2.4 0.2 22.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.1 7.4 14.2 20.9 22.7 18.5 9.5 2.4 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.4    2.4 0.0
15-3 95.7% 9.1    7.5 1.6 0.1
14-4 71.3% 13.2    7.8 4.8 0.6
13-5 35.5% 8.1    2.9 3.9 1.3 0.0
12-6 10.6% 2.2    0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1
11-7 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.2% 35.2 20.9 11.4 2.7 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.4% 48.8% 48.8% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.2
15-3 9.5% 39.5% 39.5% 14.5 0.2 1.7 1.8 0.1 5.8
14-4 18.5% 34.2% 34.2% 15.0 0.0 1.1 4.1 1.2 12.2
13-5 22.7% 28.0% 28.0% 15.3 0.0 0.4 3.5 2.5 16.4
12-6 20.9% 23.7% 23.7% 15.6 0.1 1.9 2.9 16.0
11-7 14.2% 20.0% 20.0% 15.7 0.0 0.7 2.1 11.4
10-8 7.4% 15.4% 15.4% 15.9 0.2 1.0 6.2
9-9 3.1% 12.4% 12.4% 15.9 0.0 0.4 2.7
8-10 1.0% 12.4% 12.4% 16.0 0.1 0.8
7-11 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.1% 27.1% 0.0% 15.2 72.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 13.3 0.4 10.8 47.8 36.6 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%