Illinois
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.0#17
Expected Predictive Rating+13.6#40
Pace75.0#52
Improvement-2.4#324

Offense
Total Offense+9.6#17
First Shot+7.9#18
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#84
Layup/Dunks+1.7#121
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#53
Freethrows+1.6#101
Improvement-2.2#339

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#16
First Shot+5.0#42
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#52
Layups/Dunks+8.9#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.6#362
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#210
Freethrows+4.6#7
Improvement-0.2#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
#1 Seed 3.9% 5.7% 2.1%
Top 2 Seed 11.5% 16.5% 6.5%
Top 4 Seed 38.9% 49.1% 28.7%
Top 6 Seed 65.2% 75.6% 54.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.0% 96.0% 87.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.5% 95.7% 87.3%
Average Seed 5.3 4.7 5.9
.500 or above 98.0% 99.4% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.0% 95.1% 90.8%
Conference Champion 6.4% 7.9% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.2% 1.8% 4.6%
First Round90.7% 95.3% 86.1%
Second Round72.3% 78.8% 65.8%
Sweet Sixteen39.6% 46.4% 32.8%
Elite Eight18.2% 22.0% 14.3%
Final Four8.2% 10.5% 5.9%
Championship Game3.5% 4.7% 2.4%
National Champion1.4% 1.9% 1.0%

Next Game: Tennessee (Neutral) - 50.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 9
Quad 26 - 113 - 10
Quad 35 - 017 - 10
Quad 45 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 312 Jackson St. W 113-55 99%     1 - 0 +46.6 +28.6 +13.7
  Fri, Nov 7 177 Florida Gulf Coast W 113-70 97%     2 - 0 +38.7 +28.6 +7.3
  Tue, Nov 11 30 Texas Tech W 81-77 73%     3 - 0 +14.7 +10.2 +4.5
  Fri, Nov 14 176 Colgate W 84-65 97%     4 - 0 +14.7 +12.7 +2.9
  Wed, Nov 19 11 Alabama L 86-90 43%     4 - 1 +14.8 +9.2 +6.1
  Sat, Nov 22 230 LIU Brooklyn W 98-58 98%     5 - 1 +33.0 +20.5 +11.8
  Mon, Nov 24 213 UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-73 97%     6 - 1 +7.8 +10.7 -3.0
  Fri, Nov 28 5 Connecticut L 61-74 37%     6 - 2 +7.5 +1.5 +5.2
  Sat, Dec 6 16 Tennessee L 76-77 50%    
  Tue, Dec 9 25 @Ohio St. L 78-79 48%    
  Sat, Dec 13 49 Nebraska W 84-75 80%    
  Mon, Dec 22 37 Missouri W 82-78 66%    
  Mon, Dec 29 201 Southern W 92-69 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 96 Penn St. W 86-74 86%    
  Thu, Jan 8 120 Rutgers W 83-66 94%    
  Sun, Jan 11 27 @Iowa L 73-74 50%    
  Wed, Jan 14 60 @Northwestern W 80-75 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 95 Minnesota W 79-64 91%    
  Wed, Jan 21 86 Maryland W 85-71 89%    
  Sat, Jan 24 2 @Purdue L 74-82 23%    
  Thu, Jan 29 57 Washington W 84-73 83%    
  Sun, Feb 1 49 @Nebraska W 81-78 61%    
  Wed, Feb 4 60 Northwestern W 83-72 84%    
  Sat, Feb 7 10 @Michigan St. L 72-77 33%    
  Tue, Feb 10 36 Wisconsin W 84-77 74%    
  Sun, Feb 15 24 Indiana W 80-75 69%    
  Wed, Feb 18 32 @USC W 82-81 52%    
  Sat, Feb 21 31 @UCLA W 75-74 52%    
  Fri, Feb 27 1 Michigan L 78-84 30%    
  Tue, Mar 3 80 Oregon W 84-71 87%    
  Sun, Mar 8 86 @Maryland W 82-74 76%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.1 6.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.4 5.0 3.3 0.8 0.0 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.8 6.7 3.5 0.6 0.0 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.4 6.5 3.1 0.4 0.0 16.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.8 2.8 0.4 13.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 4.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.2 0.6 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.7 0.1 3.9 9th
10th 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.5 6.5 9.5 12.7 15.4 15.3 13.8 10.0 5.9 2.8 1.0 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 95.6% 0.9    0.8 0.2
18-2 70.3% 1.9    1.1 0.7 0.1
17-3 35.2% 2.1    0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0
16-4 10.8% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
15-5 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 2.9 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 35.5% 64.5% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.0% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.8% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 1.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.9% 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 2.4 1.1 2.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.0% 100.0% 11.0% 89.0% 3.1 0.8 2.2 3.6 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 13.8% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 3.8 0.2 1.4 3.7 4.7 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 15.3% 100.0% 6.3% 93.6% 4.8 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.1 4.6 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 15.4% 99.3% 3.7% 95.6% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.0 3.8 2.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
12-8 12.7% 97.1% 2.5% 94.6% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.0 3.0 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.4 97.0%
11-9 9.5% 91.8% 1.0% 90.8% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.8 91.7%
10-10 6.5% 76.2% 0.8% 75.4% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.0 1.6 76.0%
9-11 3.5% 41.3% 0.1% 41.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.0 41.2%
8-12 2.1% 16.6% 16.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.7 16.6%
7-13 0.9% 4.4% 4.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.4%
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 92.0% 6.0% 86.0% 5.3 3.9 7.6 12.6 14.8 14.2 12.0 9.5 6.5 4.6 3.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 8.0 91.5%