Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.3 #55
Expected Predictive Rating +9.0 #64
Pace 72.9 #74
Improvement -3.3 #319

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #49 B+ B B B+ A-
Defense #75 C+ B+ C+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #121 1.22 #110 +2.5 #96
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #344 0.78 #140 -3.4 #333
Three Pointers 48% #46 1.10 #70 +5.5 #32
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #57 +4.7 #57
Freethrows 20.5 #50 74% #136 15.1 #53
Second Chance 34.1% #84 1.11 #106 0.38 #65
Turnovers 14.4% #62
Total Offense +6.6 #49

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #24 1.06 #69 -1.8 #240
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #115 0.78 #215 -0.9 #256
Three Pointers 32% #355 1.03 #207 +4.2 #37
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #133 +1.4 #133
Freethrows 18.1 #211 72% #180 13.1 #204
Second Chance 28.8% #107 0.89 #24 0.26 #41
Turnovers 17.7% #101
Total Defense +3.7 #75

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.7% #28 0.6% #222
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.2% #82 -3.4% #116
Possession Length 16.0 #57 17.7 #245
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #90 0.17 #162
Improvement +0.8 #137 -4.1 #348

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.0% 28.9% 18.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.2% 9.9% 4.2%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 10.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.7% 97.4%
Conference Champion 8.2% 10.3% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.9% 5.6% 3.1%
First Round23.4% 25.9% 17.3%
Second Round7.7% 8.8% 5.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 1.9% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Away) - 71.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 25 - 36 - 9
Quad 37 - 113 - 10
Quad 410 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 326 Wagner W 103 - 74 98% +12  1 - 0 +16 +14 B- A+ C+ -0 B A B-
 Fri, Nov 7 39 Utah St. L 77 - 80 40% -8  1 - 1 +10 +2 A- D+ F +8 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 220 St. Peter's W 78 - 61 93% +10  2 - 1 +10 +6 A+ F F +5 A+ C+ B+
 Mon, Nov 17 26 @North Carolina St. L 79 - 85 23% -4  2 - 2 +12 +10 C B+ A+ +2 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 364 Coppin St. W 101 - 58 99% +23  3 - 2 +20 +12 B+ F A+ +6 C A+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 74 South Florida W 78 - 66 60% +3  4 - 2 +20 +6 C- B- A +13 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Nov 27 21 Vanderbilt L 74 - 89 25% -10  4 - 3 +2 +3 F A- B- +1 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 58 Virginia Tech W 86 - 68 52% +10  5 - 3 +28 +17 A+ F C- +11 A A- A+
 Fri, Dec 5 249 Samford W 83 - 57 94% +7  6 - 3 +18 +4 B B F +14 A+ A+ B
 Wed, Dec 10 51 New Mexico L 78 - 81 60% +1  6 - 4 +5 +11 D+ A B+ -6 F A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 352 Niagara W 84 - 58 98% +8  7 - 4 +10 +14 A+ D C -1 B- C- D
 Thu, Dec 18 224 American W 105 - 83 93% +12  8 - 4 +15 +29 A+ A+ A -14 D+ C+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 354 Rider W 100 - 79 98% +11  9 - 4 +5 +18 A+ A+ C -14 D F D-
 Wed, Dec 31 136 St. Bonaventure W 89 - 82 86% +0  10 - 4 1 - 0 +6 +17 A- B A+ -11 D C C-
 Sat, Jan 3 118 @Duquesne W 93 - 80 67% +7  11 - 4 2 - 0 +19 +21 A- A+ C -2 F A+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 28 Saint Louis L 62 - 71 45% -6  11 - 5 2 - 1 +3 -11 F F C- +14 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 86 @George Mason L 80 - 86 51% -1  11 - 6 2 - 2 +4 +15 A- A A+ -12 D+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 122 @Rhode Island W 84 - 75 68% +8  12 - 6 3 - 2 +15 +19 A- A- A+ -4 F A+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 159 Saint Joseph's W 79 - 72 89% +0  13 - 6 4 - 2 +4 +4 C B B- -1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 137 @Davidson W 76 - 70 71%
 Tue, Jan 27 120 Richmond W 84 - 73 84%
 Fri, Jan 30 268 Loyola Chicago W 87 - 68 96%
 Tue, Feb 3 193 @Fordham W 77 - 67 82%
 Fri, Feb 6 73 Dayton W 77 - 71 70%
 Wed, Feb 11 197 @La Salle W 80 - 70 82%
 Sat, Feb 14 120 @Richmond W 81 - 76 67%
 Tue, Feb 17 72 George Washington W 86 - 81 69%
 Fri, Feb 20 28 @Saint Louis L 78 - 85 26%
 Sat, Feb 28 193 Fordham W 80 - 64 93%
 Tue, Mar 3 86 George Mason W 78 - 72 72%
 Fri, Mar 6 73 @Dayton L 74 - 75 48%
Totals 22 - 9 13 - 5 +10 +7 B+ B B +4 C+ B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.8 1.8 8.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 3.0 11.7 14.1 5.5 0.3 34.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.7 10.4 11.2 2.8 0.2 27.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.8 6.4 1.2 0.0 15.7 4th
5th 0.4 3.3 3.7 0.6 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 6.8 13.8 20.4 24.5 19.2 9.5 2.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 87.6% 1.8    1.1 0.7 0.0
15-3 39.9% 3.8    1.4 2.1 0.3
14-4 11.4% 2.2    0.4 1.1 0.6 0.1
13-5 1.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 2.9 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.1% 78.3% 39.8% 38.5% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 64.0%
15-3 9.5% 51.0% 28.7% 22.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.1 0.0 4.7 31.2%
14-4 19.2% 36.3% 25.5% 10.8% 10.7 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.9 0.1 12.2 14.5%
13-5 24.5% 24.5% 19.8% 4.7% 10.9 0.1 0.8 4.9 0.2 18.5 5.8%
12-6 20.4% 18.8% 16.9% 1.9% 11.0 0.3 3.2 0.4 16.6 2.2%
11-7 13.8% 13.8% 13.1% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 1.5 0.3 11.9 0.7%
10-8 6.8% 8.9% 8.9% 11.3 0.5 0.2 6.2
9-9 2.7% 7.1% 7.1% 11.4 0.1 0.1 2.5
8-10 0.8% 6.0% 6.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.7
7-11 0.2% 5.4% 5.4% 12.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.0% 19.4% 6.6% 10.6 74.0 8.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 7.1 2.5 9.2 26.4 25.8 20.2 11.0 4.3 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 67.7% 9.6 2.0 8.1 19.2 24.2 14.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 68.5% 9.7 1.1 6.5 14.1 37.0 9.8