Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#47
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#77
Pace72.3#103
Improvement-0.9#243

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#60
First Shot+4.4#72
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#83
Layup/Dunks+1.0#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#44
Freethrows+1.2#108
Improvement+1.8#61

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#44
First Shot+3.2#79
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#37
Layups/Dunks-0.7#211
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#31
Freethrows-1.3#278
Improvement-2.7#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.9% 36.7% 24.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.8% 15.2% 7.0%
Average Seed 10.2 10.2 10.7
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.4% 98.3% 92.4%
Conference Champion 29.7% 32.5% 14.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four6.3% 6.6% 4.2%
First Round32.0% 33.6% 22.8%
Second Round12.6% 13.4% 7.8%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 3.3% 1.8%
Elite Eight0.9% 0.9% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Home) - 84.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 26 - 37 - 8
Quad 36 - 213 - 10
Quad 410 - 024 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 295 Wagner W 103-74 96%     1 - 0 +18.9 +17.8 -1.3
  Fri, Nov 7 33 Utah St. L 77-80 41%     1 - 1 +10.5 +3.5 +7.2
  Wed, Nov 12 297 St. Peter's W 78-61 97%     2 - 1 +6.7 +3.9 +3.2
  Mon, Nov 17 28 @North Carolina St. L 79-85 26%     2 - 2 +11.8 +9.5 +2.6
  Sat, Nov 22 364 Coppin St. W 101-58 99%     3 - 2 +20.8 +12.3 +6.0
  Wed, Nov 26 79 South Florida W 78-66 66%     4 - 2 +18.9 +5.4 +13.2
  Thu, Nov 27 9 Vanderbilt L 74-89 20%     4 - 3 +5.1 +4.7 +1.4
  Fri, Nov 28 74 Virginia Tech W 86-68 63%     5 - 3 +25.7 +15.3 +10.1
  Fri, Dec 5 227 Samford W 83-57 94%     6 - 3 +19.0 +5.4 +13.4
  Wed, Dec 10 66 New Mexico L 78-81 71%     6 - 4 +2.2 +8.3 -6.1
  Mon, Dec 15 352 Niagara W 84-58 99%     7 - 4 +9.8 +14.1 -1.3
  Thu, Dec 18 268 American W 105-83 96%     8 - 4 +13.1 +27.1 -14.1
  Mon, Dec 22 344 Rider W 100-79 98%     9 - 4 +6.2 +20.4 -14.9
  Wed, Dec 31 116 St. Bonaventure W 80-69 85%    
  Sat, Jan 3 121 @Duquesne W 84-78 70%    
  Wed, Jan 7 37 Saint Louis W 81-80 53%    
  Sat, Jan 10 88 @George Mason W 74-72 56%    
  Wed, Jan 14 119 @Rhode Island W 77-72 68%    
  Mon, Jan 19 188 Saint Joseph's W 81-65 93%    
  Sat, Jan 24 140 @Davidson W 77-70 73%    
  Tue, Jan 27 104 Richmond W 81-71 81%    
  Fri, Jan 30 270 Loyola Chicago W 85-65 96%    
  Tue, Feb 3 193 @Fordham W 75-65 83%    
  Fri, Feb 6 68 Dayton W 77-71 71%    
  Wed, Feb 11 233 @La Salle W 78-66 87%    
  Sat, Feb 14 104 @Richmond W 78-74 63%    
  Tue, Feb 17 77 George Washington W 85-78 73%    
  Fri, Feb 20 37 @Saint Louis L 78-83 33%    
  Sat, Feb 28 193 Fordham W 78-62 93%    
  Tue, Mar 3 88 George Mason W 77-69 76%    
  Fri, Mar 6 68 @Dayton W 75-74 50%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 6.1 9.4 8.0 3.8 0.8 29.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 8.1 9.6 4.1 0.6 24.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 6.3 6.6 1.9 0.1 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.2 4.5 1.1 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.6 1.2 0.1 7.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.1 0.1 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.1 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.6 6.7 10.7 14.5 17.5 17.6 13.7 8.5 3.8 0.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.8    3.7 0.1
16-2 93.3% 8.0    6.5 1.4 0.0
15-3 68.8% 9.4    5.4 3.6 0.5 0.0
14-4 34.6% 6.1    1.8 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 8.8% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.7% 29.7 18.3 8.6 2.4 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 95.0% 53.8% 41.2% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.1%
17-1 3.8% 84.6% 45.0% 39.6% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.6 72.0%
16-2 8.5% 68.5% 40.5% 28.0% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.0 1.5 0.0 2.7 47.0%
15-3 13.7% 52.3% 32.3% 20.1% 10.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.5 3.5 0.1 6.5 29.6%
14-4 17.6% 39.9% 28.4% 11.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.7 0.3 10.6 16.1%
13-5 17.5% 30.1% 23.9% 6.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.0 0.5 12.2 8.2%
12-6 14.5% 20.8% 18.9% 1.9% 11.1 0.0 0.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.5 2.4%
11-7 10.7% 14.0% 13.2% 0.8% 11.3 0.0 1.0 0.4 9.2 0.9%
10-8 6.7% 10.5% 10.1% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 6.0 0.4%
9-9 3.6% 7.2% 7.2% 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.3
8-10 1.6% 6.9% 6.9% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
7-11 0.6% 3.2% 3.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.6
6-12 0.2% 1.4% 1.4% 13.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 34.9% 24.4% 10.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.3 7.6 18.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 65.1 13.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 4.4 1.6 3.1 16.4 34.4 25.8 16.4 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 90.6% 7.6 3.8 17.0 18.9 32.1 9.4 7.5 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 89.5% 7.6 5.3 13.2 26.3 15.8 26.3 2.6