Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -9.7 317
Results Rating -10.5 326
Consistency 0.12 49
Pace 64.5 285
Improvement -1.2 227

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 304 D+ C+ D D+ C-
Defense D 313 D+ C D- D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 207 F+ 49% 356 -4.0 322
2 Pt. Jumpers 46% 87 C+ 40% 124 +1.6 91
Three Pointers 38% 231 C 34% 171 -1.1 226
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 250 D+ -3.0 283
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 287
Second Chance C+ 32.0% 124 C+ 1.05 149 C+ 0.34 118
Opponents' Steals D- 11.2% 321
Other Turnovers D+ 8.0% 275
Turnovers D 19.2% 326
Freethrows D+ 0.27 269 C- 71% 235 D+ 0.20 277
Total Offense D -5.0 304

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 44% 261 D 13.6% 326
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 195 B- 3.3% 60
Three Pointers C- 82% 223 B- 0.6% 109
Total D+ 51% 273 C- 6.2% 246


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 32 C+ 56% 122 +2.7 273
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 305 C- 39% 218 -1.4 73
Three Pointers 39% 251 D- 37% 319 +0.9 232
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +0.9 340 C- +1.2 227
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 253
Second Chance C 30.1% 176 C- 1.06 234 C 0.32 214
Turnovers from Steals D- 7.2% 332
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 273
Turnovers D- 13.8% 338
Freethrows D- 0.37 335 C 72% 184 D- 0.27 333
Total Defense D -4.7 313

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 258 D 6.8% 332
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 207 C- 4.1% 218
Three Pointers C- 85% 215 F+ -0.2% 363
Total C- 59% 252 D 3.6% 326

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 292 16.8 87
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 341 0.20 297
Consistency 0.11 64 0.12 169
Improvement -3.0 312 +1.8 92

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 324 319 307
Results Rating Rank 338 334 276
Conference Record 8 - 8 8 - 8 8 - 8
Conference Finish 6 6 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 15% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four7% 15% 0%
First Round3% 6% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 411 - 1011 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74 - 103 2% -12  1% 0 - 1 F+ -15 C- -2 D+ C D- F -11 C- F D+
 Fri, Nov 7 53 @Seton Hall L 61 - 68 3% -3  23% 0 - 2 B- +7 C+ +3 A A- F B +4 B- C C+
 Tue, Nov 11 159 @Fordham L 61 - 63 12% +2  56% 0 - 3 C +1 C +1 D- A C- C -0 B C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 194 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70 - 71 OT 16% +1  51% 0 - 4 C -0 F+ -10 F C+ F A +10 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 80 @Georgetown L 75 - 92 4% -11  10% 0 - 5 D+ -7 C -0 C+ C- F D -5 C- C- D
 Wed, Nov 26 323 @Manhattan W 103 - 101 OT 42% -8  6% 1 - 5 D+ -6 A- +11 A+ B- D- F -17 F+ F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 107 @Maryland L 63 - 89 7% -9  9% 1 - 6 F -19 F -12 F+ F+ F D -6 B+ C F
 Wed, Dec 17 349 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 64 74% +6  94% 2 - 6 C- -2 C+ +3 D A A+ D -5 F A+ C-
 Fri, Jan 2 351 @Chicago St. W 79 - 72 54% +4  93% 3 - 6 1 - 0 C- -4 B +6 D B+ A+ F+ -9 C B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 335 Stonehill L 60 - 69 69% -2  35% 3 - 7 1 - 1 F -24 F+ -8 D- B- F F -17 F C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 355 St. Francis (PA) L 69 - 71 78% +1  49% 3 - 8 1 - 2 F -20 F -11 F C+ D F+ -9 D- D D
 Sat, Jan 10 291 Mercyhurst L 69 - 70 53% +1  57% 3 - 9 1 - 3 D- -11 D -5 C- B- C- D- -7 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 325 @New Haven L 74 - 80 42% -8  0% 3 - 10 1 - 4 D- -14 A- +10 A A F F -24 F A D-
 Mon, Jan 19 336 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 61 - 68 47% -4  3% 3 - 11 1 - 5 F+ -16 D- -7 F C B- F -11 D- F A
 Fri, Jan 23 298 @Le Moyne L 67 - 69 33% +2  65% 3 - 12 1 - 6 D+ -7 C +0 A- C- F D- -8 A F F
 Thu, Jan 29 306 Central Connecticut St. L 55 - 62 57% -2  29% 3 - 13 1 - 7 F -19 F -18 F C- C+ C -1 C B- D
 Sat, Jan 31 336 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75 - 72 OT 70% +1  56% 4 - 13 2 - 7 D- -12 D- -7 F C+ B- D -5 F A+ D
 Thu, Feb 5 298 Le Moyne W 79 - 78 55% +1  46% 5 - 13 3 - 7 D -10 C +1 A B+ F F -11 F B- C+
 Sat, Feb 7 306 @Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 84 34% -9  2% 5 - 14 3 - 8 F -23 D- -8 F B- C- F -16 F F D+
 Thu, Feb 12 218 LIU Brooklyn L 57 - 67 37% -1  31% 5 - 15 3 - 9 F+ -16 F -20 F+ F F B +4 B+ B+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 335 @Stonehill W 68 - 57 46% +4  62% 6 - 15 4 - 9 C+ +2 C- -2 F A D+ B +5 A+ F C+
 Mon, Feb 16 218 @LIU Brooklyn L 65 - 83 18% -7  20% 6 - 16 4 - 10 F -18 D+ -2 C+ D- F F -17 F C D-
 Thu, Feb 19 291 @Mercyhurst W 83 - 80 OT 31% +4  70% 7 - 16 5 - 10 C -1 C +1 D+ B- F+ C- -3 D+ C+ D-
 Sat, Feb 21 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 65 - 56 59% +3  85% 8 - 16 6 - 10 C- -3 F -12 F D- F A +10 B B- C-
 Thu, Feb 26 325 New Haven W 65 - 62 65% -2  18% 9 - 16 7 - 10 D -11 D -6 F+ C B+ D+ -4 A+ C- F
 Sat, Feb 28 351 Chicago St. W 80 - 61 75% +16  99% 10 - 16 8 - 10 C+ +2 C- -2 C- A F B +5 C A+ F
 Wed, Mar 4 306 @Central Connecticut St. L 69 - 73 34%
Totals 10 - 17 8 - 10 -10 D -5 B- D+ C- D -5 C C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D F+ C+ C D+ 38% 46% 38% C- D+ C+ C+ C+ D D+ C- D+ D C+ C- D- C- 45% 17% 39% D- D+ C C- C D- D- C D-
1.02 49% 40% 34% -3 0 0.95 32% 1.1 .34 19% .27 71% .20 1.15 56% 39% 37% +1 +1 1.07 30% 1.1 .32 14% .37 72% .20
Nov
3		 Virginia Commonwealth C- F C- A+ D+ 48% 21% 31% C+ D+ B D- C D- A+ C- A F C- A+ C- C 47% 2% 51% F C- F+ F F D+ F A- D
0.97 36% 36% 44% -6 +1 0.90 33% 0.9 .29 20% .39 71% .28 1.35 62% 0% 36% +2 +3 1.13 41% 1.5 .62 13% .47 68% .32
Nov
7		 Seton Hall C+ F A+ A+ A+ 33% 14% 53% C+ A C+ A+ A- F F F F B D+ A+ B+ B 46% 17% 37% D B- F A+ C C+ F A+ C+
0.95 29% 50% 48% +3 0 1.09 31% 1.2 .38 31% .27 42% .11 1.05 62% 13% 29% -5 +1 0.93 50% 0.8 .38 17% .45 50% .22
Nov
11		 Fordham C F B+ B- D- 27% 29% 45% D+ D- A- A A C- F F F C A+ F A- A- 48% 20% 33% D B A F C- F F C- F
1.02 23% 43% 36% -6 -2 0.86 34% 1.2 .42 17% .12 50% .06 1.05 36% 67% 27% -8 +1 0.87 26% 1.3 .34 12% .40 71% .28
Nov
16		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F+ F A+ F F 50% 24% 26% C F C- B+ C+ F B- F C A B C A+ A+ 35% 27% 38% B- A+ F F F A+ F A- F
0.92 44% 54% 21% -8 0 0.87 27% 1.2 .32 20% .26 63% .16 0.94 53% 38% 17% -11 -1 0.77 32% 1.3 .42 24% .55 69% .38
Nov
22		 Georgetown C C- C- B C+ 37% 21% 42% B- C+ C- C C- F B C+ B D C- B- F+ D+ 42% 25% 33% C C- B+ F C- D F F F
1.00 53% 36% 36% -1 0 1.00 28% 1.0 .28 21% .32 74% .24 1.23 61% 36% 39% +3 0 1.07 29% 1.4 .40 12% .43 89% .38
Nov
26		 Manhattan A- B- A A+ A+ 60% 12% 29% A A+ A F+ B- D- A+ C A+ F A+ F F F 37% 23% 40% C F+ F D- F F+ F B- F
1.33 65% 50% 60% +16 +3 1.40 48% 0.9 .45 18% .42 74% .31 1.30 33% 54% 48% +3 0 1.07 36% 1.2 .43 12% .51 77% .39
Dec
2		 Maryland F F+ B F F+ 33% 23% 44% D+ F+ C- F F+ F B- A+ A D C A+ A+ A 50% 12% 38% F B+ F+ A- C F F C+ F
0.85 47% 42% 26% -8 -1 0.85 24% 0.7 .16 24% .32 83% .27 1.20 58% 17% 25% -8 +2 0.90 42% 0.9 .38 11% .68 71% .49
Dec
17		 Maryland Eastern Shore C+ F+ A- D+ D 34% 19% 47% D+ D D- A+ A A+ A+ F B- D F F B F 42% 20% 38% D F B- A+ A+ C- D- A C-
1.20 50% 44% 32% -3 0 0.96 26% 2.0 .51 8% .47 61% .28 0.98 68% 67% 29% +7 0 1.18 27% 0.3 .07 23% .28 64% .18
Jan
2		 Chicago St. B F C- A+ D 45% 23% 32% D D C+ A B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F+ A+ A F C+ 47% 26% 26% F C D+ A B- F F F F
1.23 48% 36% 47% +1 0 1.04 36% 1.3 .48 12% .54 73% .39 1.12 36% 29% 50% -7 0 0.89 30% 0.8 .23 8% .46 85% .39
Jan
4		 Stonehill F+ F D+ A D- 52% 24% 24% C+ D- B- C B- F F A+ D+ F B+ F F F 47% 17% 36% D F C- C C- F F A- F
0.98 42% 33% 42% -7 +1 0.90 32% 1.1 .35 16% .18 100% .18 1.13 45% 50% 41% 0 +1 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 13% .36 63% .23
Jan
8		 St. Francis (PA) F A+ F F F 35% 26% 39% F+ F A- F+ C+ D C+ F D+ F+ D C- C D 40% 17% 44% F+ D- C- F+ D D F F F
1.06 88% 17% 22% -2 -1 0.96 42% 1.0 .42 20% .37 63% .23 1.09 63% 38% 33% +1 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 17% .35 84% .30
Jan
10		 Mercyhurst D F A+ A+ D 53% 8% 39% A- C- C- A B- C- F+ F F D- C D F D- 51% 22% 27% F F A+ A+ A+ F F F F
1.07 35% 50% 47% -4 +3 1.00 31% 1.3 .38 19% .30 56% .17 1.08 56% 45% 38% +2 +1 1.08 4% 0.0 .00 8% .35 81% .28
Jan
17		 New Haven A- A- B A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% D+ A A+ F A F F F+ F F F A+ F F 28% 15% 57% C- F C A+ A D- C- F F
1.22 69% 44% 45% +12 0 1.27 50% 0.9 .46 28% .16 71% .11 1.32 69% 14% 58% +20 0 1.41 21% 0.4 .08 15% .27 93% .25
Jan
19		 Fairleigh Dickinson D- D C- F+ F 36% 36% 29% F F F+ A+ C B- C- A+ B F A+ F F F 19% 44% 36% A+ D- F F+ F A F F+ F
1.05 56% 38% 31% -2 -2 0.93 19% 1.4 .27 14% .32 88% .28 1.17 43% 50% 38% +5 -4 1.03 41% 1.1 .45 24% .57 76% .43
Jan
23		 Le Moyne C B- A A A- 45% 16% 39% B- A- B- F+ C- F F F F D- A A+ B+ A+ 45% 14% 40% D A F F+ F F F C F
1.10 60% 43% 41% +6 +1 1.16 33% 0.9 .30 20% .25 58% .14 1.13 47% 17% 29% -11 +1 0.83 38% 1.1 .44 13% .64 71% .45
Jan
29		 Central Connecticut St. F F A+ F F 40% 7% 53% B- F C C- C- C+ A+ F A C D A+ B+ B 43% 13% 43% F C A F B- D D- B- D
0.92 41% 67% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 12% .41 68% .28 1.03 65% 17% 30% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 75% .24
Jan
31		 Fairleigh Dickinson D- F F B- F 46% 13% 40% B+ F C+ C C+ B- B+ A+ A D B- F F F 52% 9% 39% F F A+ A+ A+ D A A+ A+
1.09 42% 29% 38% -6 +1 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 13% .39 83% .32 1.05 54% 60% 48% +8 +2 1.22 21% 0.4 .09 16% .19 36% .07
Feb
5		 Le Moyne C A+ B+ B- A 43% 22% 35% C A D+ A+ B+ F B A- A- F F+ F A- F 54% 15% 30% F+ F B C- B- C+ D D D-
1.15 70% 40% 38% +7 0 1.17 27% 1.6 .42 20% .37 80% .29 1.14 68% 86% 29% +10 +2 1.26 21% 1.0 .21 20% .37 75% .28
Feb
7		 Central Connecticut St. D- F B+ F F 41% 20% 39% D F C B+ B- C- C- F D F F A F F 36% 43% 21% B+ F F+ F F D+ F C F
1.02 39% 45% 27% -10 0 0.82 31% 1.2 .36 14% .25 71% .18 1.28 87% 28% 56% +13 -3 1.21 32% 1.7 .55 15% .56 77% .43
Feb
12		 LIU Brooklyn F D- C+ F F+ 38% 21% 40% D F+ F F F F B- F D B D- C+ A+ A 57% 17% 26% F B+ A C- B+ D F B+ F
0.81 50% 40% 26% -7 0 0.87 24% 0.8 .19 24% .36 53% .19 0.95 65% 38% 8% -6 +2 0.93 26% 1.0 .26 19% .45 62% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Stonehill C- C- F C+ F+ 36% 36% 28% F F A+ D- A D+ B- A B+ B A+ C A A+ 36% 16% 48% C- A+ C- F F C+ C- F D
1.03 56% 17% 36% -8 -2 0.82 45% 0.9 .43 14% .32 78% .25 0.87 28% 38% 25% -17 0 0.68 28% 1.5 .41 21% .25 77% .19
Feb
16		 LIU Brooklyn D+ C- F A+ B 41% 32% 27% F C+ A F D- F A+ F B+ F C F F F 49% 12% 39% F F C+ C- C D- B D C+
1.02 56% 29% 50% +2 -1 1.05 44% 0.6 .26 24% .45 59% .27 1.30 58% 67% 53% +14 +2 1.35 33% 1.0 .33 17% .25 69% .17
Feb
19		 Mercyhurst C F A+ A C 30% 36% 34% F D+ B C+ B- F+ A+ A A+ C- A D+ F D+ 33% 33% 33% C- D+ D+ A- C+ D- F A+ F
1.11 33% 50% 41% +1 -3 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 21% .51 80% .41 1.07 44% 44% 39% 0 -2 0.98 28% 0.9 .26 12% .41 63% .26
Feb
21		 St. Francis (PA) F A- F F F 25% 18% 57% F+ F C+ F D- F A+ A- A+ A B A+ B- A- 44% 17% 40% F B F+ A+ B- C- D- A+ B
1.00 73% 25% 28% -4 -1 0.93 35% 0.8 .29 23% .46 78% .36 0.86 52% 13% 32% -8 +1 0.88 33% 0.6 .21 18% .32 47% .15
Feb
26		 New Haven D F A+ D- F+ 30% 21% 49% D- F+ C- B+ C B+ C- A C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 10% 46% F A+ C+ F C- F F F F
1.04 36% 60% 30% -5 -1 0.91 25% 1.3 .31 13% .26 86% .22 0.99 43% 20% 23% -16 +2 0.73 19% 1.1 .22 10% .37 90% .34
Feb
28		 Chicago St. C- F+ B- A+ C+ 40% 25% 35% D- C- C+ A+ A F D B+ C- B B- C+ A B- 47% 25% 27% F C A A+ A+ F C A+ B+
1.16 53% 42% 47% +6 0 1.13 37% 1.5 .53 23% .30 81% .25 0.89 50% 36% 27% -7 0 0.87 20% 0.6 .13 12% .25 60% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 100.0% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 6.9 93.1
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 16.0 93.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.9% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 15.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 24.0%
Lose Out 54.0%