Wagner
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.5#339
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#320
Pace57.0#362
Improvement-1.0#228

Offense
Total Offense-9.9#360
First Shot-9.0#358
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#247
Layup/Dunks-7.9#360
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#33
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#248
Freethrows-2.0#297
Improvement+1.4#96

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#226
First Shot-3.8#300
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#28
Layups/Dunks-0.1#173
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#137
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#289
Freethrows-1.6#287
Improvement-2.4#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 6.5% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 22.2% 31.8% 12.1%
.500 or above in Conference 34.0% 47.0% 20.4%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 19.8% 8.7% 31.4%
First Four5.4% 6.3% 4.5%
First Round1.9% 2.2% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercyhurst (Away) - 51.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 11 - 4
Quad 410 - 1111 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 67   @ Rutgers L 52-75 3%     0 - 1 -12.0 -14.8 +2.3
  Nov 13, 2024 17   @ St. John's L 45-66 1%     0 - 2 -1.8 -11.7 +8.1
  Nov 16, 2024 132   @ Seton Hall L 28-54 8%     0 - 3 -21.4 -32.2 +2.7
  Nov 19, 2024 282   @ Boston University W 60-58 24%     1 - 3 -2.2 -3.6 +1.7
  Nov 26, 2024 68   @ Georgetown L 41-66 3%     1 - 4 -14.1 -17.1 -1.0
  Dec 04, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 65-52 78%     2 - 4 -6.8 +1.4 -5.2
  Dec 08, 2024 361   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 63-61 54%     3 - 4 -10.6 -6.1 -4.2
  Dec 14, 2024 355   @ NJIT W 50-43 47%     4 - 4 -3.8 -19.0 +15.9
  Dec 18, 2024 297   Manhattan L 66-80 46%     4 - 5 -24.4 -8.5 -17.4
  Jan 03, 2025 360   Chicago St. L 52-64 72%     4 - 6 0 - 1 -29.4 -16.0 -15.5
  Jan 05, 2025 325   Fairleigh Dickinson L 59-71 54%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -24.6 -20.1 -4.5
  Jan 10, 2025 230   @ Central Connecticut St. W 62-57 17%     5 - 7 1 - 2 +3.9 +2.7 +2.0
  Jan 18, 2025 359   Mercyhurst L 65-69 71%     5 - 8 1 - 3 -21.4 -6.6 -15.4
  Jan 20, 2025 344   St. Francis (PA) W 70-68 2OT 62%     6 - 8 2 - 3 -12.6 -11.3 -1.3
  Jan 24, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst W 59-58 51%    
  Jan 26, 2025 344   @ St. Francis (PA) L 60-62 40%    
  Jan 30, 2025 316   @ Stonehill L 58-63 30%    
  Feb 01, 2025 350   Le Moyne W 65-61 64%    
  Feb 06, 2025 313   LIU Brooklyn L 57-58 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 325   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 62-66 33%    
  Feb 13, 2025 350   @ Le Moyne L 62-64 43%    
  Feb 20, 2025 316   Stonehill W 61-60 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 360   @ Chicago St. W 59-58 51%    
  Feb 27, 2025 313   @ LIU Brooklyn L 55-61 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 230   Central Connecticut St. L 54-59 33%    
Projected Record 11 - 14 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 2.1 1.0 0.1 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 5.3 2.5 0.3 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 2.5 7.9 3.7 0.3 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 8.8 5.5 0.3 16.1 5th
6th 0.6 7.5 7.6 0.7 16.3 6th
7th 0.3 4.7 8.3 1.5 0.0 14.8 7th
8th 0.3 3.2 7.1 2.2 0.0 12.8 8th
9th 0.6 2.9 4.5 1.8 0.1 9.8 9th
Total 0.6 3.2 8.0 14.2 19.6 20.4 16.2 10.2 5.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-4 81.0% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 30.3% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 6.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.6% 20.7% 20.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5
11-5 1.9% 12.4% 12.4% 16.0 0.2 1.6
10-6 5.2% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.6 4.6
9-7 10.2% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 1.1 9.1
8-8 16.2% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 1.3 14.9
7-9 20.4% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 1.1 19.4
6-10 19.6% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.9 18.8
5-11 14.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 14.0
4-12 8.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.0
3-13 3.2% 3.2
2-14 0.6% 0.6
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.5 94.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%