Wagner
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#281
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#177
Pace57.0#363
Improvement+0.5#122

Offense
Total Offense-7.6#351
First Shot-6.4#336
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#246
Layup/Dunks-3.7#296
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#27
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#295
Freethrows-2.6#309
Improvement+1.1#55

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#129
First Shot-1.7#240
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#24
Layups/Dunks+1.8#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#206
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#275
Freethrows-0.8#236
Improvement-0.6#266
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.1% 33.4% 25.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 80.8% 93.9% 79.1%
.500 or above in Conference 88.3% 93.9% 87.6%
Conference Champion 35.5% 46.6% 34.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.8% 2.0%
First Four16.2% 14.4% 16.4%
First Round17.2% 25.2% 16.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 11.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 4
Quad 416 - 616 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 44   @ Rutgers L 52-75 4%     0 - 1 -9.4 -12.1 +2.2
  Nov 13, 2024 16   @ St. John's L 45-66 2%     0 - 2 -3.5 -16.2 +10.8
  Nov 16, 2024 88   @ Seton Hall L 28-54 9%     0 - 3 -17.0 -26.3 +1.2
  Nov 19, 2024 286   @ Boston University W 60-58 39%     1 - 3 -1.4 -4.0 +3.0
  Nov 26, 2024 116   @ Georgetown L 55-68 12%    
  Dec 04, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 65-49 93%    
  Dec 08, 2024 354   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 62-57 66%    
  Dec 14, 2024 360   @ NJIT W 60-55 69%    
  Dec 18, 2024 329   Manhattan W 64-58 72%    
  Jan 03, 2025 350   Chicago St. W 67-57 81%    
  Jan 05, 2025 347   Fairleigh Dickinson W 71-62 80%    
  Jan 10, 2025 254   @ Central Connecticut St. L 57-61 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 62-51 84%    
  Jan 20, 2025 342   St. Francis (PA) W 65-56 79%    
  Jan 24, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst W 59-54 68%    
  Jan 26, 2025 342   @ St. Francis (PA) W 62-59 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 343   @ Stonehill W 60-57 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 337   Le Moyne W 65-57 75%    
  Feb 06, 2025 338   LIU Brooklyn W 67-59 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 347   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 13, 2025 337   @ Le Moyne W 62-60 56%    
  Feb 20, 2025 343   Stonehill W 63-54 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 350   @ Chicago St. W 64-60 63%    
  Feb 27, 2025 338   @ LIU Brooklyn W 64-62 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 254   Central Connecticut St. W 60-58 55%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.5 7.6 9.8 8.1 4.5 1.3 35.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 5.5 8.7 6.5 2.6 0.5 25.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.8 5.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.2 1.2 0.1 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.0 0.8 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.2 7.9 11.0 13.3 14.9 14.6 12.4 8.6 4.5 1.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
15-1 100.0% 4.5    4.4 0.1
14-2 94.6% 8.1    7.1 1.0
13-3 78.7% 9.8    7.2 2.5 0.1
12-4 52.5% 7.6    4.0 3.1 0.5 0.0
11-5 23.6% 3.5    0.9 1.6 0.8 0.1
10-6 5.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 35.5% 35.5 25.0 8.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.3% 65.4% 65.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4
15-1 4.5% 54.2% 54.2% 14.9 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 2.1
14-2 8.6% 45.7% 45.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 4.7
13-3 12.4% 39.1% 39.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.0 7.5
12-4 14.6% 31.9% 31.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.4 9.9
11-5 14.9% 25.0% 25.0% 16.0 0.0 3.7 11.1
10-6 13.3% 18.5% 18.5% 16.0 0.0 2.5 10.8
9-7 11.0% 14.8% 14.8% 16.0 1.6 9.4
8-8 7.9% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.9 7.0
7-9 5.2% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.4 4.8
6-10 3.4% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.2 3.2
5-11 1.8% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 1.7
4-12 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-13 0.4% 0.4
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 26.1% 26.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.8 20.6 73.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.3 1.9 9.6 46.2 40.4 1.9