Wagner
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.2#309
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#229
Pace57.0#363
Improvement-0.6#224

Offense
Total Offense-9.0#358
First Shot-9.0#357
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#182
Layup/Dunks-7.9#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#227
Freethrows-1.9#286
Improvement+0.5#139

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#145
First Shot-1.7#227
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#31
Layups/Dunks+0.9#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#268
Freethrows-1.6#289
Improvement-1.0#263
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 15.0% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 65.0% 70.3% 43.3%
.500 or above in Conference 74.7% 79.7% 54.6%
Conference Champion 16.4% 18.7% 6.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 2.8% 11.8%
First Four10.8% 11.2% 9.2%
First Round7.9% 8.6% 5.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 80.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 5
Quad 414 - 814 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 64   @ Rutgers L 52-75 4%     0 - 1 -11.2 -13.9 +2.2
  Nov 13, 2024 13   @ St. John's L 45-66 1%     0 - 2 -2.1 -14.5 +10.5
  Nov 16, 2024 116   @ Seton Hall L 28-54 10%     0 - 3 -20.2 -28.6 +0.3
  Nov 19, 2024 256   @ Boston University W 60-58 28%     1 - 3 -0.2 -3.5 +3.6
  Nov 26, 2024 71   @ Georgetown L 41-66 5%     1 - 4 -14.0 -19.3 +1.4
  Dec 04, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 65-52 88%     2 - 4 -8.2 +0.1 -5.3
  Dec 08, 2024 359   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 63-61 61%     3 - 4 -9.1 -5.5 -3.3
  Dec 14, 2024 352   @ NJIT W 50-43 55%     4 - 4 -2.5 -19.4 +17.7
  Dec 18, 2024 293   Manhattan L 66-80 57%     4 - 5 -24.1 -7.3 -18.3
  Jan 03, 2025 360   Chicago St. W 65-56 80%    
  Jan 05, 2025 334   Fairleigh Dickinson W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 10, 2025 221   @ Central Connecticut St. L 53-61 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 358   Mercyhurst W 62-53 79%    
  Jan 20, 2025 336   St. Francis (PA) W 65-59 70%    
  Jan 24, 2025 358   @ Mercyhurst W 59-56 61%    
  Jan 26, 2025 336   @ St. Francis (PA) L 61-62 49%    
  Jan 30, 2025 322   @ Stonehill L 58-60 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 332   Le Moyne W 64-59 67%    
  Feb 06, 2025 340   LIU Brooklyn W 63-57 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 334   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 13, 2025 332   @ Le Moyne L 61-62 46%    
  Feb 20, 2025 322   Stonehill W 61-57 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 360   @ Chicago St. W 62-59 61%    
  Feb 27, 2025 340   @ LIU Brooklyn W 61-60 51%    
  Mar 01, 2025 221   Central Connecticut St. L 56-58 42%    
Projected Record 13 - 12 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.9 4.4 2.6 0.8 0.2 16.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 6.5 7.7 4.4 1.2 0.2 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 6.9 6.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.9 5.4 1.2 0.1 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.2 4.5 0.9 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.3 0.9 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.1 1.0 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.8 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.2 7.0 10.7 13.2 15.2 14.9 12.7 9.4 5.6 2.7 0.8 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
14-2 94.0% 2.6    2.2 0.3 0.0
13-3 77.9% 4.4    3.1 1.2 0.0
12-4 51.9% 4.9    2.5 2.0 0.3 0.0
11-5 22.5% 2.9    0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1
10-6 4.6% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 16.4% 16.4 9.6 5.2 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 32.6% 32.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.8% 40.2% 40.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5
14-2 2.7% 32.2% 32.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.8
13-3 5.6% 31.1% 31.1% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.9
12-4 9.4% 25.0% 25.0% 16.0 0.1 2.2 7.1
11-5 12.7% 18.5% 18.5% 16.0 0.0 2.3 10.4
10-6 14.9% 15.5% 15.5% 16.0 0.0 2.3 12.6
9-7 15.2% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 0.0 1.7 13.5
8-8 13.2% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 1.2 12.0
7-9 10.7% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.8 9.9
6-10 7.0% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.3 6.7
5-11 4.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 4.1
4-12 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-13 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 12.8 85.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.8 3.3 33.3 46.7 16.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%