Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#197
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#154
Pace65.4#256
Improvement+0.9#150

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#274
First Shot-0.2#181
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#344
Layup/Dunks+1.6#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#264
Freethrows-2.6#321
Improvement+2.3#78

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#127
First Shot+0.3#175
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#71
Layups/Dunks-3.8#312
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#68
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#199
Freethrows+2.5#34
Improvement-1.4#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.2% 55.9% 51.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.5% 3.0%
First Round54.8% 55.6% 50.5%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Home) - 84.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 31 - 12 - 3
Quad 421 - 423 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 79   @ Providence L 55-59 14%     0 - 1 +5.8 -8.6 +14.0
  Nov 08, 2024 78   @ Saint Joseph's W 73-67 13%     1 - 1 +15.9 +7.5 +8.5
  Nov 16, 2024 212   Northeastern L 62-80 52%     1 - 2 -20.6 -11.0 -9.8
  Nov 21, 2024 274   @ Sacred Heart L 54-67 57%     1 - 3 -16.8 -20.2 +2.9
  Nov 24, 2024 299   Binghamton W 64-56 78%     2 - 3 -2.2 +1.0 -1.4
  Dec 01, 2024 225   Umass Lowell W 69-67 65%     3 - 3 -4.0 -10.5 +6.4
  Dec 04, 2024 168   @ Massachusetts W 73-69 34%     4 - 3 +6.2 +4.7 +1.5
  Dec 07, 2024 317   @ Holy Cross W 69-56 67%     5 - 3 +6.4 +0.8 +7.2
  Dec 15, 2024 121   @ Rhode Island L 69-77 25%     5 - 4 -3.2 -2.2 -0.9
  Dec 18, 2024 328   @ Fairfield W 64-63 71%     6 - 4 -6.7 -6.8 +0.2
  Dec 21, 2024 189   Quinnipiac W 84-80 58%     7 - 4 -0.2 +8.1 -8.4
  Jan 03, 2025 331   @ St. Francis (PA) W 74-59 72%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +7.0 +2.5 +5.7
  Jan 05, 2025 350   @ Mercyhurst W 62-50 78%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +1.7 -5.1 +8.8
  Jan 10, 2025 347   Wagner L 57-62 89%     9 - 5 2 - 1 -20.2 -10.8 -10.3
  Jan 12, 2025 323   LIU Brooklyn L 52-54 82%     9 - 6 2 - 2 -14.0 -11.0 -3.4
  Jan 18, 2025 318   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 71-60 67%     10 - 6 3 - 2 +4.3 -3.5 +7.9
  Jan 24, 2025 357   @ Le Moyne W 93-70 81%     11 - 6 4 - 2 +11.7 +16.5 -3.8
  Jan 26, 2025 360   Chicago St. W 81-64 93%     12 - 6 5 - 2 -1.3 +2.5 -3.6
  Jan 30, 2025 323   @ LIU Brooklyn W 63-50 68%     13 - 6 6 - 2 +6.1 -4.7 +11.5
  Feb 01, 2025 324   @ Stonehill W 71-63 69%     14 - 6 7 - 2 +0.8 -8.1 +8.7
  Feb 06, 2025 318   Fairleigh Dickinson W 87-66 82%     15 - 6 8 - 2 +9.2 +9.8 -0.6
  Feb 13, 2025 350   Mercyhurst W 73-63 89%     16 - 6 9 - 2 -5.4 -4.0 -1.0
  Feb 15, 2025 331   St. Francis (PA) W 83-67 85%     17 - 6 10 - 2 +2.9 +7.3 -3.6
  Feb 20, 2025 360   @ Chicago St. W 81-75 85%     18 - 6 11 - 2 -7.2 +3.1 -10.4
  Feb 22, 2025 324   Stonehill W 72-62 84%    
  Feb 27, 2025 357   Le Moyne W 78-64 92%    
  Mar 01, 2025 347   @ Wagner W 63-55 76%    
Projected Record 21 - 6 14 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.4 6.4 33.7 59.5 100.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.4 6.4 33.7 59.5 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 59.5    59.5
13-3 100.0% 33.7    33.7
12-4 100.0% 6.4    5.3 1.1
11-5 87.8% 0.4    0.2 0.2
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 100.0% 100.0 98.7 1.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 59.5% 57.5% 57.5% 14.4 0.0 2.1 15.5 16.1 0.5 25.3
13-3 33.7% 52.6% 52.6% 15.1 0.0 1.7 11.9 4.1 16.0
12-4 6.4% 49.2% 49.2% 15.5 0.0 1.6 1.6 3.3
11-5 0.4% 29.3% 29.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 55.2% 55.2% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 2.1 17.2 29.6 6.3 44.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 34.2% 100.0% 14.4 0.1 6.0 45.3 47.2 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.2%