Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#222
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#139
Pace65.3#276
Improvement+0.0#189

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#309
First Shot-0.7#191
After Offensive Rebound-3.9#352
Layup/Dunks+1.9#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#273
Freethrows-2.6#321
Improvement+0.1#165

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#125
First Shot+0.6#158
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#111
Layups/Dunks-3.7#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#195
Freethrows+2.6#39
Improvement-0.2#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.9% 44.3% 37.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 96.9% 98.7% 94.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.9% 97.8% 95.9%
Conference Champion 60.3% 64.6% 55.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four10.2% 8.0% 12.6%
First Round35.8% 40.4% 30.8%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Away) - 52.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 32 - 22 - 4
Quad 417 - 620 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 75   @ Providence L 55-59 11%     0 - 1 +6.2 -5.8 +11.5
  Nov 08, 2024 103   @ Saint Joseph's W 73-67 15%     1 - 1 +13.9 +6.3 +7.7
  Nov 16, 2024 158   Northeastern L 62-80 38%     1 - 2 -18.0 -8.7 -9.4
  Nov 21, 2024 277   @ Sacred Heart L 54-67 50%     1 - 3 -16.1 -19.1 +2.6
  Nov 24, 2024 310   Binghamton W 64-56 78%     2 - 3 -3.2 -0.2 -1.2
  Dec 01, 2024 151   Umass Lowell W 69-67 48%     3 - 3 -0.6 -7.8 +7.2
  Dec 04, 2024 200   @ Massachusetts W 73-69 34%     4 - 3 +5.2 +2.2 +3.1
  Dec 07, 2024 330   @ Holy Cross W 69-56 65%     5 - 3 +6.0 -0.5 +8.1
  Dec 15, 2024 98   @ Rhode Island L 69-77 14%     5 - 4 +0.4 -0.2 +0.7
  Dec 18, 2024 292   @ Fairfield W 69-68 53%    
  Dec 21, 2024 238   Quinnipiac W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 03, 2025 335   @ St. Francis (PA) W 70-66 66%    
  Jan 05, 2025 360   @ Mercyhurst W 68-60 78%    
  Jan 10, 2025 290   Wagner W 60-53 73%    
  Jan 12, 2025 337   LIU Brooklyn W 71-60 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 339   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 24, 2025 338   @ Le Moyne W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 26, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 74-60 90%    
  Jan 30, 2025 337   @ LIU Brooklyn W 68-63 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 323   @ Stonehill W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 06, 2025 339   Fairleigh Dickinson W 80-69 84%    
  Feb 13, 2025 360   Mercyhurst W 71-57 90%    
  Feb 15, 2025 335   St. Francis (PA) W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 20, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. W 71-63 76%    
  Feb 22, 2025 323   Stonehill W 70-61 79%    
  Feb 27, 2025 338   Le Moyne W 73-62 83%    
  Mar 01, 2025 290   @ Wagner W 57-56 52%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.0 11.9 15.9 14.6 9.0 3.0 60.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.6 7.5 5.4 1.8 0.2 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.5 6.6 10.5 14.2 17.5 17.7 14.8 9.0 3.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.0    3.0
15-1 100.0% 9.0    8.9 0.0
14-2 98.5% 14.6    13.8 0.8 0.0
13-3 89.7% 15.9    12.9 2.9 0.1
12-4 67.8% 11.9    7.1 4.2 0.6 0.0
11-5 35.1% 5.0    1.5 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
10-6 9.0% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 60.3% 60.3 47.3 10.6 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.0% 65.8% 65.8% 13.1 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-1 9.0% 59.1% 59.1% 14.1 0.1 1.2 2.2 1.7 0.2 3.7
14-2 14.8% 53.5% 53.5% 14.8 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.3 1.2 6.9
13-3 17.7% 46.1% 46.1% 15.3 0.0 0.8 4.1 3.2 9.5
12-4 17.5% 41.1% 41.1% 15.7 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.9 10.3
11-5 14.2% 34.0% 34.0% 15.9 0.0 0.6 4.3 9.4
10-6 10.5% 28.7% 28.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.9 7.5
9-7 6.6% 22.5% 22.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5 5.1
8-8 3.5% 18.7% 18.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7 2.8
7-9 1.8% 13.2% 13.2% 16.0 0.2 1.6
6-10 0.9% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 0.1 0.8
5-11 0.3% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-12 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 40.9% 40.9% 0.0% 15.2 0.1 0.7 2.2 5.8 13.0 19.1 59.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 12.4 5.6 52.9 36.6 4.6 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%