Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#235
Expected Predictive Rating+8.8#53
Pace66.9#255
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#279
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#167
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.8% 44.3% 35.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 87.9% 94.9% 83.4%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 97.1% 93.3%
Conference Champion 54.1% 61.5% 49.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four13.0% 10.7% 14.4%
First Round32.0% 39.0% 27.6%
Second Round1.1% 1.6% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Neutral) - 38.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 31 - 22 - 4
Quad 417 - 619 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 84   @ Providence L 55-59 11%     0 - 1 +6.0 -4.1 +9.7
  Nov 08, 2024 106   @ Saint Joseph's W 73-67 15%     1 - 1 +13.7 +5.9 +7.9
  Nov 16, 2024 170   Northeastern L 66-69 39%    
  Nov 21, 2024 335   @ Sacred Heart W 76-72 65%    
  Nov 24, 2024 330   Binghamton W 72-63 80%    
  Dec 01, 2024 138   Umass Lowell L 71-73 43%    
  Dec 04, 2024 109   @ Massachusetts L 65-76 17%    
  Dec 07, 2024 343   @ Holy Cross W 71-66 68%    
  Dec 15, 2024 116   @ Rhode Island L 68-78 19%    
  Dec 18, 2024 258   @ Fairfield L 67-68 45%    
  Dec 21, 2024 247   Quinnipiac W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 03, 2025 350   @ St. Francis (PA) W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 05, 2025 356   @ Mercyhurst W 69-61 75%    
  Jan 10, 2025 275   Wagner W 62-56 69%    
  Jan 12, 2025 339   LIU Brooklyn W 76-65 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 348   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 24, 2025 337   @ Le Moyne W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 26, 2025 342   Chicago St. W 76-65 82%    
  Jan 30, 2025 339   @ LIU Brooklyn W 73-68 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 359   @ Stonehill W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 06, 2025 348   Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-69 85%    
  Feb 13, 2025 356   Mercyhurst W 72-58 88%    
  Feb 15, 2025 350   St. Francis (PA) W 76-64 85%    
  Feb 20, 2025 342   @ Chicago St. W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 359   Stonehill W 74-60 89%    
  Feb 27, 2025 337   Le Moyne W 74-64 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 275   @ Wagner L 59-60 48%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.2 8.1 13.1 14.3 10.5 4.3 54.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.6 7.1 6.7 3.1 0.6 21.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 2.7 1.1 0.1 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.4 6.6 9.6 12.8 15.3 16.3 14.9 10.5 4.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 4.3    4.3
15-1 100.0% 10.5    10.3 0.2
14-2 95.7% 14.3    12.9 1.4 0.0
13-3 80.7% 13.1    9.7 3.3 0.2
12-4 53.1% 8.1    4.2 3.3 0.6 0.0
11-5 24.7% 3.2    0.8 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 5.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 54.1% 54.1 42.2 9.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 4.3% 70.0% 70.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.3
15-1 10.5% 62.0% 62.0% 14.4 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.5 0.9 4.0
14-2 14.9% 54.1% 54.1% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.2 2.8 6.9
13-3 16.3% 45.0% 45.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 4.3 9.0
12-4 15.3% 36.9% 36.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.5 9.7
11-5 12.8% 29.7% 29.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.6 9.0
10-6 9.6% 22.1% 22.1% 16.0 0.1 2.1 7.5
9-7 6.6% 18.8% 18.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2 5.4
8-8 4.4% 13.2% 13.2% 16.0 0.6 3.8
7-9 2.7% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.3 2.4
6-10 1.4% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.1 1.3
5-11 0.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-12 0.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 38.8% 38.8% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.3 10.0 20.4 61.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 4.8 9.5 42.9 33.3 9.5