Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#158
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#131
Pace69.2#169
Improvement-2.6#320

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#208
First Shot-1.3#204
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#191
Layup/Dunks+7.6#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#262
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#332
Freethrows-2.0#296
Improvement-2.6#340

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#128
First Shot+2.1#112
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#241
Layups/Dunks-0.9#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#82
Freethrows+0.3#165
Improvement+0.0#188
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 12.3% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 92.0% 96.6% 88.2%
.500 or above in Conference 79.7% 83.8% 76.2%
Conference Champion 13.1% 16.0% 10.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.8% 1.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round10.5% 12.3% 9.0%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Away) - 45.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 36 - 67 - 9
Quad 414 - 420 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 252   @ Boston University W 80-72 59%     1 - 0 +5.8 +12.5 -6.1
  Nov 10, 2024 119   Princeton L 76-79 51%     1 - 1 -3.2 +0.2 -3.3
  Nov 13, 2024 232   Harvard W 78-56 74%     2 - 1 +15.2 +3.0 +12.0
  Nov 16, 2024 222   Central Connecticut St. W 80-62 62%     3 - 1 +14.8 +9.5 +5.5
  Nov 22, 2024 242   Florida International W 60-58 67%     4 - 1 -2.5 -8.1 +5.7
  Nov 23, 2024 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 59-55 42%     5 - 1 +6.0 -6.0 +12.4
  Nov 24, 2024 245   Cal St. Bakersfield L 60-68 68%     5 - 2 -12.7 -7.6 -6.1
  Nov 30, 2024 194   @ Vermont L 64-68 45%     5 - 3 -2.6 -2.7 +0.0
  Dec 03, 2024 155   La Salle W 82-68 61%     6 - 3 +11.3 -0.3 +10.1
  Dec 08, 2024 224   Colgate W 78-75 73%     7 - 3 -3.3 +1.4 -4.7
  Dec 15, 2024 318   @ Old Dominion W 75-71 71%     8 - 3 -1.8 -2.0 +0.1
  Dec 18, 2024 200   @ Massachusetts L 73-74 46%    
  Dec 29, 2024 59   @ Northwestern L 60-72 13%    
  Jan 02, 2025 207   Delaware W 78-73 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 156   Hofstra W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 09, 2025 209   @ Towson L 63-64 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 309   @ Stony Brook W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 16, 2025 142   @ UNC Wilmington L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 18, 2025 122   @ College of Charleston L 71-77 30%    
  Jan 23, 2025 153   Drexel W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 27, 2025 209   Towson W 66-61 69%    
  Jan 30, 2025 270   @ Hampton W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 01, 2025 149   @ Elon L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 06, 2025 156   @ Hofstra L 64-67 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 270   Hampton W 72-63 79%    
  Feb 13, 2025 269   Campbell W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 15, 2025 309   Stony Brook W 76-65 84%    
  Feb 20, 2025 122   College of Charleston W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 273   @ Monmouth W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 27, 2025 313   N.C. A&T W 83-71 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 225   @ William & Mary W 79-78 51%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.1 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 13.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.3 2.8 0.7 0.1 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.0 6.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 6.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 5.0 3.9 0.7 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.2 3.3 4.8 1.1 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.8 1.8 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.4 2.5 0.2 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.8 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.3 5.7 8.8 12.0 14.0 14.8 13.7 11.0 7.4 4.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 95.8% 1.7    1.6 0.2
15-3 84.4% 3.6    2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 55.6% 4.1    1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0
13-5 22.7% 2.5    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.1% 13.1 7.2 4.1 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 44.2% 44.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 36.2% 36.2% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.8% 29.7% 29.7% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.3
15-3 4.3% 24.0% 24.0% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.3
14-4 7.4% 22.1% 22.1% 13.3 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 5.8
13-5 11.0% 19.2% 19.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 8.9
12-6 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 11.9
11-7 14.8% 10.1% 10.1% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 13.3
10-8 14.0% 5.6% 5.6% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 13.2
9-9 12.0% 3.6% 3.6% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.6
8-10 8.8% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 8.6
7-11 5.7% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.6
6-12 3.3% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.2
5-13 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.3 4.2 1.9 0.2 89.5 0.0%