Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#245
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#218
Pace63.0#323
Improvement-2.1#305

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#244
First Shot-2.5#249
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#198
Layup/Dunks-5.1#326
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#347
Freethrows+2.2#62
Improvement-1.9#315

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#235
First Shot-2.1#243
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#176
Layups/Dunks+3.5#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#196
Freethrows-6.3#364
Improvement-0.2#214
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 13.1% 18.9% 6.9%
.500 or above in Conference 19.2% 22.9% 15.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 22.2% 18.6% 26.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 51.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 95 - 14
Quad 47 - 512 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 120   @ California L 73-86 16%     0 - 1 -7.3 -3.1 -3.7
  Nov 11, 2024 131   North Dakota St. W 86-81 37%     1 - 1 +3.8 +17.1 -12.8
  Nov 16, 2024 256   Fresno St. W 74-58 64%     2 - 1 +7.7 -2.2 +9.3
  Nov 22, 2024 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 54-74 26%     2 - 2 -18.0 -6.8 -15.3
  Nov 23, 2024 242   Florida International L 73-76 OT 49%     2 - 3 -7.5 -2.0 -5.4
  Nov 24, 2024 158   Northeastern W 68-60 32%     3 - 3 +8.0 +4.8 +4.2
  Nov 30, 2024 210   @ Southern Utah L 64-74 30%     3 - 4 -9.4 -6.7 -3.1
  Dec 05, 2024 63   @ UC Irvine L 66-82 7%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -4.3 +4.1 -8.6
  Dec 07, 2024 95   @ UC San Diego L 60-81 11%     3 - 6 0 - 2 -12.3 -7.9 -4.6
  Dec 18, 2024 312   @ Portland W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 21, 2024 276   Portland St. W 73-69 66%    
  Dec 23, 2024 131   @ North Dakota St. L 65-74 19%    
  Jan 02, 2025 184   UC Davis L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 04, 2025 272   Long Beach St. W 68-64 65%    
  Jan 09, 2025 136   @ UC Santa Barbara L 65-74 20%    
  Jan 11, 2025 148   Cal St. Northridge L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 19, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 63-70 26%    
  Jan 23, 2025 278   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 64-66 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 177   UC Riverside L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 30, 2025 249   Cal Poly W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 148   @ Cal St. Northridge L 69-77 23%    
  Feb 06, 2025 136   UC Santa Barbara L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 177   @ UC Riverside L 64-71 27%    
  Feb 13, 2025 95   UC San Diego L 64-71 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 278   Cal St. Fullerton W 67-63 65%    
  Feb 20, 2025 184   @ UC Davis L 64-71 28%    
  Feb 22, 2025 63   UC Irvine L 61-71 17%    
  Feb 27, 2025 272   @ Long Beach St. L 65-67 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 249   @ Cal Poly L 75-78 40%    
  Mar 06, 2025 174   Hawaii L 66-67 47%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 3.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 3.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 4.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.6 3.6 0.7 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.4 4.3 0.8 0.0 14.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.8 4.7 0.9 0.0 16.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.9 6.1 4.0 0.8 0.0 16.1 10th
11th 0.2 0.8 2.4 4.0 4.2 2.1 0.5 0.0 14.2 11th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.2 8.6 11.7 13.9 14.1 12.8 10.9 8.2 5.2 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 72.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 45.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 19.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 15.0% 15.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.2% 12.1% 12.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.7% 8.4% 8.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-7 1.6% 4.9% 4.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
12-8 3.2% 3.5% 3.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
11-9 5.2% 1.8% 1.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1
10-10 8.2% 0.6% 0.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1
9-11 10.9% 0.6% 0.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9
8-12 12.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 12.8
7-13 14.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.1
6-14 13.9% 13.9
5-15 11.7% 11.7
4-16 8.6% 8.6
3-17 5.2% 5.2
2-18 2.5% 2.5
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%