UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.7#63
Expected Predictive Rating+14.1#36
Pace72.2#91
Improvement-2.6#322

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#163
First Shot+0.5#157
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#197
Layup/Dunks+3.6#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#214
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#275
Freethrows+0.6#144
Improvement-2.6#344

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#6
First Shot+6.4#22
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#47
Layups/Dunks-0.3#177
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#16
Freethrows+2.2#51
Improvement+0.0#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.3% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 3.1% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.9% 52.7% 44.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.1% 5.6% 1.5%
Average Seed 11.1 10.9 11.6
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.7% 99.3%
Conference Champion 64.3% 67.4% 58.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 1.8% 0.7%
First Round49.2% 51.9% 44.5%
Second Round16.0% 17.9% 12.7%
Sweet Sixteen4.9% 5.6% 3.6%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.4% 0.8%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 64.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 23 - 3
Quad 312 - 316 - 5
Quad 411 - 127 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 189   @ Loyola Marymount W 66-51 75%     1 - 0 +16.6 -4.0 +20.8
  Nov 10, 2024 99   @ Northern Iowa W 80-60 52%     2 - 0 +28.3 +10.5 +18.0
  Nov 16, 2024 226   Pepperdine W 80-62 91%     3 - 0 +11.5 +4.5 +7.1
  Nov 22, 2024 208   @ Weber St. W 93-87 78%     4 - 0 +6.6 +12.1 -5.9
  Nov 28, 2024 154   Kennesaw St. W 76-59 79%     5 - 0 +17.3 -1.8 +18.0
  Nov 29, 2024 115   Kent St. W 51-39 70%     6 - 0 +15.3 -11.5 +28.2
  Nov 30, 2024 209   Towson W 67-60 85%     7 - 0 +4.6 -1.2 +6.2
  Dec 05, 2024 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 82-66 93%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +8.3 +6.8 +1.7
  Dec 14, 2024 67   @ Oregon St. L 55-67 41%     8 - 1 -0.8 -12.1 +11.5
  Dec 19, 2024 129   @ Belmont W 78-74 64%    
  Dec 21, 2024 198   @ Duquesne W 69-62 76%    
  Dec 30, 2024 175   @ California Baptist W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 02, 2025 249   @ Cal Poly W 84-73 84%    
  Jan 04, 2025 177   UC Riverside W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 09, 2025 148   @ Cal St. Northridge W 76-71 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 95   @ UC San Diego W 68-67 50%    
  Jan 16, 2025 278   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-57 95%    
  Jan 18, 2025 249   Cal Poly W 87-70 94%    
  Jan 23, 2025 177   @ UC Riverside W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 25, 2025 174   Hawaii W 74-61 87%    
  Jan 30, 2025 272   @ Long Beach St. W 73-61 86%    
  Feb 01, 2025 184   UC Davis W 75-62 88%    
  Feb 08, 2025 95   UC San Diego W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 13, 2025 136   UC Santa Barbara W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 16, 2025 174   @ Hawaii W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 20, 2025 148   Cal St. Northridge W 79-68 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 245   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-61 83%    
  Feb 27, 2025 278   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 72-60 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 272   Long Beach St. W 76-58 94%    
  Mar 06, 2025 184   @ UC Davis W 72-65 73%    
  Mar 08, 2025 136   @ UC Santa Barbara W 72-68 66%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.1 11.0 16.2 16.0 10.7 4.0 64.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.4 7.3 5.6 2.5 0.5 23.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.1 5.5 9.1 13.2 16.6 18.7 16.4 10.7 4.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 4.0    4.0
19-1 100.0% 10.7    10.5 0.2
18-2 97.1% 16.0    14.8 1.2
17-3 86.6% 16.2    13.1 3.1 0.0
16-4 65.8% 11.0    7.1 3.6 0.2
15-5 38.5% 5.1    2.2 2.3 0.5 0.0
14-6 15.0% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 64.3% 64.3 52.1 11.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 4.0% 85.4% 71.6% 13.8% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.6 48.6%
19-1 10.7% 72.6% 65.1% 7.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.3 3.5 1.0 0.0 2.9 21.5%
18-2 16.4% 62.5% 59.0% 3.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 5.6 3.7 0.0 6.2 8.4%
17-3 18.7% 54.5% 53.5% 1.0% 11.6 0.0 0.1 3.8 6.1 0.2 8.5 2.1%
16-4 16.6% 47.7% 47.5% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 1.8 5.8 0.4 0.0 8.7 0.3%
15-5 13.2% 40.5% 40.4% 0.1% 12.0 0.6 4.2 0.5 0.0 7.8 0.1%
14-6 9.1% 31.3% 31.3% 12.2 0.1 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.2
13-7 5.5% 24.7% 24.7% 12.3 0.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.2
12-8 3.1% 18.9% 18.9% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5
11-9 1.5% 12.7% 12.7% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
10-10 0.8% 8.9% 8.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
9-11 0.3% 7.6% 7.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
8-12 0.1% 5.2% 5.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 49.9% 47.8% 2.1% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.2 2.5 15.9 24.4 2.3 0.1 0.0 50.1 4.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 5.1 2.0 3.7 11.7 25.7 20.8 16.2 8.3 4.2 3.2 2.3 1.7 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 65.6% 8.5 0.5 1.1 7.1 3.8 10.4 4.4 12.6 9.3 15.8 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 60.7% 8.9 2.8 3.7 6.5 4.7 3.7 5.6 11.2 21.5 0.9