Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#249
Expected Predictive Rating-0.3#173
Pace85.8#1
Improvement-2.6#326

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#223
First Shot-1.5#215
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#203
Layup/Dunks+0.3#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#90
Freethrows-1.8#284
Improvement+0.5#138

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#272
First Shot-2.4#256
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#244
Layups/Dunks-0.7#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#208
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#273
Freethrows+0.6#143
Improvement-3.1#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 15.1
.500 or above 9.4% 11.4% 3.2%
.500 or above in Conference 11.6% 12.9% 7.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 28.5% 26.6% 34.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 75.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 33 - 84 - 15
Quad 48 - 412 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 56   @ San Francisco L 78-86 6%     0 - 1 +4.5 +2.2 +3.4
  Nov 07, 2024 120   @ California L 73-91 16%     0 - 2 -12.3 -5.8 -5.2
  Nov 14, 2024 140   Seattle W 75-71 38%     1 - 2 +2.1 -2.6 +4.6
  Nov 17, 2024 251   @ Eastern Washington W 82-78 39%     2 - 2 +1.9 -3.6 +5.1
  Nov 20, 2024 61   @ Arizona St. L 89-93 7%     2 - 3 +8.1 +12.9 -4.4
  Nov 23, 2024 41   @ St. Mary's L 66-80 5%     2 - 4 +0.6 +0.2 +0.7
  Nov 26, 2024 287   Grambling St. W 82-79 68%     3 - 4 -6.7 +5.4 -12.1
  Nov 30, 2024 87   @ Stanford W 97-90 10%     4 - 4 +16.2 +18.6 -3.0
  Dec 05, 2024 184   @ UC Davis L 66-77 26%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -9.2 -11.3 +3.7
  Dec 07, 2024 148   Cal St. Northridge L 91-102 41%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -13.5 +3.2 -14.9
  Dec 14, 2024 185   @ San Jose St. L 100-107 OT 26%     4 - 7 -5.2 +4.4 -8.1
  Dec 17, 2024 325   Denver W 85-78 75%    
  Dec 21, 2024 294   @ Nebraska Omaha L 80-81 46%    
  Jan 02, 2025 63   UC Irvine L 73-84 16%    
  Jan 05, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 74-81 26%    
  Jan 09, 2025 95   @ UC San Diego L 72-86 10%    
  Jan 11, 2025 136   UC Santa Barbara L 80-83 38%    
  Jan 16, 2025 184   UC Davis L 79-80 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 63   @ UC Irvine L 70-87 6%    
  Jan 25, 2025 272   Long Beach St. W 79-75 64%    
  Jan 30, 2025 245   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 75-78 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 177   @ UC Riverside L 76-83 26%    
  Feb 06, 2025 174   Hawaii L 77-78 46%    
  Feb 13, 2025 278   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 148   @ Cal St. Northridge L 82-90 23%    
  Feb 20, 2025 95   UC San Diego L 75-83 24%    
  Feb 22, 2025 177   UC Riverside L 79-80 46%    
  Feb 27, 2025 136   @ UC Santa Barbara L 77-86 21%    
  Mar 01, 2025 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-75 60%    
  Mar 06, 2025 278   Cal St. Fullerton W 78-74 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 272   @ Long Beach St. L 76-78 43%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 3.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.5 4.3 0.7 0.0 14.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.7 7.5 4.9 0.9 0.0 17.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.9 7.4 4.9 0.9 0.1 19.7 10th
11th 0.2 1.3 3.3 5.3 5.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 18.7 11th
Total 0.2 1.3 3.5 6.8 10.8 14.2 15.8 14.5 12.3 9.1 5.9 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 62.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 34.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 30.4% 30.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 9.9% 9.9% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.7% 3.9% 3.9% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-8 1.6% 3.7% 3.7% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
11-9 3.1% 1.2% 1.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
10-10 5.9% 1.3% 1.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
9-11 9.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0
8-12 12.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 12.3
7-13 14.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.4
6-14 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.8
5-15 14.2% 14.2
4-16 10.8% 10.8
3-17 6.8% 6.8
2-18 3.5% 3.5
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%