IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-10.1	#333
Expected Predictive Rating	-5.1	#273

Pace	79.5	#18
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-6.9	#348

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.2	#277

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	15.1	15.1

.500 or above	1.2%	3.0%	0.7%
.500 or above in Conference	4.5%	7.6%	3.6%
Conference Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	55.1%	45.2%	57.9%

First Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Home) - 22.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 5	0 - 8
Quad 3	1 - 9	2 - 17
Quad 4	5 - 7	6 - 25

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2024	69	@ San Francisco	L	78-86	4%	0 - 1			+3.0	-0.5	+4.7
Nov 07, 2024	119	@ California	L	73-91	7%	0 - 2			-11.9	-2.5	-8.1
Nov 14, 2024	152	Seattle	L	69-77	22%
Nov 17, 2024	228	@ Eastern Washington	L	77-87	18%
Nov 20, 2024	72	@ Arizona St.	L	65-86	3%
Nov 23, 2024	40	@ St. Mary's	L	60-84	1%
Nov 26, 2024	241	Grambling St.	L	69-72	38%
Nov 30, 2024	70	@ Stanford	L	63-84	3%
Dec 05, 2024	168	@ UC Davis	L	70-83	13%
Dec 07, 2024	202	Cal St. Northridge	L	77-82	33%
Dec 14, 2024	251	@ San Jose St.	L	68-77	22%
Dec 17, 2024	309	Denver	W	80-79	52%
Dec 21, 2024	266	@ Nebraska Omaha	L	71-79	25%
Jan 02, 2025	60	UC Irvine	L	65-81	8%
Jan 05, 2025	175	@ Hawaii	L	67-79	14%
Jan 09, 2025	132	@ UC San Diego	L	65-80	10%
Jan 11, 2025	117	UC Santa Barbara	L	74-84	19%
Jan 16, 2025	168	UC Davis	L	73-80	28%
Jan 18, 2025	60	@ UC Irvine	L	62-84	3%
Jan 25, 2025	250	Long Beach St.	L	78-81	41%
Jan 30, 2025	261	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	68-76	25%
Feb 01, 2025	155	@ UC Riverside	L	69-83	12%
Feb 06, 2025	175	Hawaii	L	70-76	30%
Feb 13, 2025	262	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	68-76	25%
Feb 15, 2025	202	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	74-85	18%
Feb 20, 2025	132	UC San Diego	L	68-77	23%
Feb 22, 2025	155	UC Riverside	L	72-80	26%
Feb 27, 2025	117	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	71-87	9%
Mar 01, 2025	261	Cal St. Bakersfield	L	71-73	43%
Mar 06, 2025	262	Cal St. Fullerton	L	71-73	44%
Mar 08, 2025	250	@ Long Beach St.	L	75-84	23%
Projected Record						6 - 25	4 - 16

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		0.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.3	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.6	3rd
4th										0.0	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1									1.1	4th
5th									0.1	0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0									1.9	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	0.7	1.5	0.8	0.1											3.3	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.2	2.2	1.2	0.2	0.0											5.0	7th
8th					0.0	0.5	2.2	3.4	1.9	0.3	0.0												8.4	8th
9th			0.0	0.2	1.4	3.9	4.9	2.5	0.4	0.0													13.3	9th
10th		0.1	1.2	4.2	7.2	6.7	2.9	0.5	0.0														22.7	10th
11th	3.7	8.8	11.9	10.5	6.3	2.0	0.3	0.0															43.5	11th

Total	3.7	8.8	13.1	14.9	14.9	13.0	10.5	7.7	5.4	3.5	2.1	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.0			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4	37.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0
15-5	25.0%	0.0			0.0	0.0
14-6	11.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0
13-7	3.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%																							0.0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4	0.0%																							0.0
15-5	0.1%																				0.0	0.0		0.0
14-6	0.1%		9.1%	9.1%		14.5															0.0	0.0		0.1
13-7	0.3%		4.5%	4.5%		14.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
12-8	0.7%		1.0%	1.0%		15.0															0.0		0.0	0.6
11-9	1.2%		1.7%	1.7%		15.5															0.0	0.0	0.0	1.2
10-10	2.1%		1.0%	1.0%		15.2															0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1
9-11	3.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	3.5
8-12	5.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.4
7-13	7.7%																							7.7
6-14	10.5%																							10.5
5-15	13.0%																							13.0
4-16	14.9%																							14.9
3-17	14.9%																							14.9
2-18	13.1%																							13.1
1-19	8.8%																							8.8
0-20	3.7%																							3.7

Total	100%		0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	15.1														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	99.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.4%