Long Beach St.
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#272
Expected Predictive Rating-7.3#292
Pace62.7#332
Improvement+2.2#53

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#237
First Shot-3.2#272
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#134
Layup/Dunks-6.0#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#182
Freethrows+0.5#148
Improvement+1.5#67

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#288
First Shot-3.1#279
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#222
Layups/Dunks-2.3#261
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#209
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#256
Freethrows+1.1#104
Improvement+0.7#131
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 1.3% 2.7% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 21.7% 26.4% 19.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 13.6% 10.6% 14.8%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Away) - 30.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 103 - 16
Quad 46 - 69 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 123   @ South Dakota St. L 79-80 14%     0 - 1 +4.5 +9.1 -4.6
  Nov 13, 2024 56   @ San Francisco L 54-84 5%     0 - 2 -17.5 -7.7 -11.7
  Nov 16, 2024 312   Portland L 61-63 70%     0 - 3 -13.3 -7.4 -6.2
  Nov 20, 2024 3   @ Gonzaga L 41-84 1%     0 - 4 -19.8 -18.6 -5.8
  Nov 23, 2024 256   Fresno St. L 69-72 59%     0 - 5 -11.3 -6.6 -4.5
  Nov 25, 2024 157   UNC Greensboro L 48-71 28%     0 - 6 -22.9 -18.7 -6.6
  Nov 26, 2024 132   UTEP L 44-70 24%     0 - 7 -24.5 -24.6 -0.9
  Nov 27, 2024 185   San Jose St. L 66-82 32%     0 - 8 -17.2 +0.0 -19.4
  Dec 05, 2024 278   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 73-56 39%     1 - 8 1 - 0 +13.9 +4.5 +10.4
  Dec 07, 2024 174   Hawaii W 76-68 42%     2 - 8 2 - 0 +4.2 +7.3 -2.5
  Dec 10, 2024 315   @ San Diego W 76-70 49%     3 - 8 +0.2 +13.2 -12.2
  Dec 19, 2024 226   @ Pepperdine L 67-72 30%    
  Jan 02, 2025 177   UC Riverside L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 04, 2025 245   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 64-68 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 184   @ UC Davis L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 16, 2025 95   UC San Diego L 63-72 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 278   Cal St. Fullerton W 67-64 62%    
  Jan 23, 2025 148   @ Cal St. Northridge L 69-78 19%    
  Jan 25, 2025 249   @ Cal Poly L 75-79 36%    
  Jan 30, 2025 63   UC Irvine L 61-73 14%    
  Feb 01, 2025 136   @ UC Santa Barbara L 65-75 17%    
  Feb 06, 2025 184   UC Davis L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 148   Cal St. Northridge L 72-75 38%    
  Feb 14, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 63-71 23%    
  Feb 20, 2025 177   @ UC Riverside L 64-72 24%    
  Feb 22, 2025 136   UC Santa Barbara L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 27, 2025 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-65 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 63   @ UC Irvine L 58-76 6%    
  Mar 06, 2025 95   @ UC San Diego L 60-75 9%    
  Mar 08, 2025 249   Cal Poly W 78-76 57%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.2 1.3 2.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 3.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 5.2 3.3 0.6 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.6 4.5 0.8 0.0 14.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 7.6 5.4 1.0 0.1 17.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.9 7.0 5.3 1.0 0.0 16.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.2 3.9 1.0 0.0 13.8 10th
11th 0.5 1.9 2.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.3 11th
Total 0.5 2.6 6.2 10.3 14.3 16.4 15.4 12.7 9.4 6.0 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 90.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 59.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 19.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 9.2% 9.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.7% 7.4% 7.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-7 1.7% 3.6% 3.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
12-8 3.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.4
11-9 6.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.9
10-10 9.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.4
9-11 12.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.6
8-12 15.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.4
7-13 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.4
6-14 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.3
5-15 10.3% 10.3
4-16 6.2% 6.2
3-17 2.6% 2.6
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%