UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#157
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#182
Pace63.1#321
Improvement-3.0#333

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#202
First Shot-2.7#252
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#103
Layup/Dunks-5.1#330
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#74
Freethrows-0.8#232
Improvement-1.6#302

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#130
First Shot+1.4#131
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#195
Layups/Dunks+4.0#55
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#347
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#198
Freethrows+1.0#113
Improvement-1.4#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.9% 14.3% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 68.0% 82.3% 59.4%
.500 or above in Conference 81.6% 86.4% 78.8%
Conference Champion 13.6% 17.3% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round11.7% 14.2% 10.1%
Second Round0.9% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Away) - 37.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 65 - 11
Quad 411 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 180   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-64 65%     1 - 0 +5.0 +4.0 +1.7
  Nov 11, 2024 49   @ SMU L 68-81 11%     1 - 1 +0.3 -2.6 +3.5
  Nov 21, 2024 46   @ Indiana L 58-69 10%     1 - 2 +2.8 -7.0 +9.5
  Nov 25, 2024 272   Long Beach St. W 71-48 72%     2 - 2 +17.1 +1.9 +17.5
  Nov 26, 2024 185   San Jose St. L 64-69 55%     2 - 3 -6.2 -6.7 +0.2
  Nov 27, 2024 132   UTEP L 58-64 44%     2 - 4 -4.5 -3.5 -1.9
  Dec 03, 2024 134   High Point W 72-68 56%     3 - 4 +2.4 +7.9 -4.8
  Dec 07, 2024 313   @ N.C. A&T W 67-55 71%     4 - 4 +6.4 -2.8 +10.3
  Dec 14, 2024 167   @ North Florida L 77-89 41%     4 - 5 -9.5 -0.4 -8.9
  Dec 21, 2024 149   @ Elon L 65-68 38%    
  Jan 01, 2025 163   @ Wofford L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 04, 2025 126   Furman W 66-65 53%    
  Jan 09, 2025 178   @ Chattanooga L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 109   @ Samford L 73-80 26%    
  Jan 15, 2025 345   The Citadel W 72-57 91%    
  Jan 18, 2025 308   @ Western Carolina W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 22, 2025 229   Mercer W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 350   @ VMI W 73-64 80%    
  Jan 29, 2025 147   East Tennessee St. W 68-66 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 163   Wofford W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 05, 2025 345   @ The Citadel W 69-60 78%    
  Feb 08, 2025 308   Western Carolina W 74-63 84%    
  Feb 12, 2025 350   VMI W 76-61 91%    
  Feb 15, 2025 126   @ Furman L 63-68 32%    
  Feb 19, 2025 147   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 22, 2025 229   @ Mercer W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 27, 2025 178   Chattanooga W 71-67 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 109   Samford L 76-77 47%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.2 3.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 13.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.4 6.4 3.3 0.7 0.1 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 5.3 7.0 2.6 0.3 16.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 5.2 6.9 2.1 0.1 15.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 5.0 6.2 1.9 0.1 14.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.0 4.6 1.7 0.1 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 2.7 0.9 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.1 5.2 8.2 11.7 14.2 15.1 14.1 11.6 7.8 4.4 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 97.0% 2.0    1.8 0.2
15-3 84.6% 3.7    2.8 0.9 0.0
14-4 54.1% 4.2    1.9 1.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 21.4% 2.5    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.6% 13.6 7.8 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 60.7% 60.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.6% 38.9% 38.9% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.0% 33.2% 33.2% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.4
15-3 4.4% 28.0% 28.0% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 3.2
14-4 7.8% 24.6% 24.6% 13.4 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 5.9
13-5 11.6% 19.3% 19.3% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 9.4
12-6 14.1% 13.3% 13.3% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 12.2
11-7 15.1% 9.1% 9.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 13.7
10-8 14.2% 7.6% 7.6% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 13.1
9-9 11.7% 5.6% 5.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 11.0
8-10 8.2% 3.7% 3.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.9
7-11 5.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.0
6-12 3.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 3.0
5-13 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.9 2.8 1.0 88.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 11.0 13.0 56.5 30.4