UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#154
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#150
Pace61.8#340
Improvement-1.9#274

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#189
First Shot-0.8#202
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#162
Layup/Dunks-4.0#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#161
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#62
Freethrows-1.0#252
Improvement-1.0#231

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#144
First Shot+2.9#79
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#318
Layups/Dunks+3.6#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#154
Freethrows+0.5#141
Improvement-0.9#238
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.6% 16.8% 13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 24.7% 36.2% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.6% 16.8% 13.6%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Away) - 60.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 36 - 77 - 10
Quad 411 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 180   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-64 66%     1 - 0 +5.4 +2.7 +3.4
  Nov 11, 2024 37   @ SMU L 68-81 9%     1 - 1 +2.1 -2.2 +4.9
  Nov 21, 2024 57   @ Indiana L 58-69 12%     1 - 2 +2.1 -6.3 +8.0
  Nov 25, 2024 304   Long Beach St. W 71-48 80%     2 - 2 +14.6 +0.0 +17.0
  Nov 26, 2024 163   San Jose St. L 64-69 53%     2 - 3 -5.2 -5.7 +0.2
  Nov 27, 2024 139   UTEP L 58-64 48%     2 - 4 -4.8 -4.4 -1.3
  Dec 03, 2024 96   High Point W 72-68 43%     3 - 4 +6.5 +8.6 -1.4
  Dec 07, 2024 316   @ N.C. A&T W 67-55 75%     4 - 4 +5.4 -1.5 +8.0
  Dec 14, 2024 266   @ North Florida L 77-89 64%     4 - 5 -15.0 -2.9 -11.8
  Dec 21, 2024 175   @ Elon L 69-73 46%     4 - 6 -2.3 +4.1 -6.9
  Jan 01, 2025 142   @ Wofford W 68-66 38%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +5.6 +2.6 +3.2
  Jan 04, 2025 159   Furman W 84-67 61%     6 - 6 2 - 0 +14.6 +18.8 -2.3
  Jan 09, 2025 119   @ Chattanooga W 78-75 32%     7 - 6 3 - 0 +8.3 +13.7 -5.0
  Jan 11, 2025 113   @ Samford L 69-76 32%     7 - 7 3 - 1 -1.5 +4.2 -6.3
  Jan 15, 2025 358   The Citadel W 70-57 94%     8 - 7 4 - 1 -3.9 -0.5 -1.6
  Jan 18, 2025 333   @ Western Carolina W 83-55 80%     9 - 7 5 - 1 +19.8 +12.6 +9.0
  Jan 22, 2025 256   Mercer L 78-79 79%     9 - 8 5 - 2 -8.8 -0.9 -7.8
  Jan 25, 2025 309   @ VMI W 60-57 73%     10 - 8 6 - 2 -3.0 -10.2 +7.5
  Jan 29, 2025 148   East Tennessee St. W 70-65 59%     11 - 8 7 - 2 +3.2 +14.2 -9.8
  Feb 01, 2025 142   Wofford L 62-74 58%     11 - 9 7 - 3 -13.5 -6.6 -8.2
  Feb 05, 2025 358   @ The Citadel W 76-61 87%     12 - 9 8 - 3 +3.2 +10.8 -5.2
  Feb 08, 2025 333   Western Carolina W 74-70 90%     13 - 9 9 - 3 -9.3 -0.9 -8.2
  Feb 12, 2025 309   VMI W 80-54 86%     14 - 9 10 - 3 +15.0 +3.3 +11.7
  Feb 15, 2025 159   @ Furman W 58-50 42%     15 - 9 11 - 3 +10.7 -7.1 +18.8
  Feb 19, 2025 148   @ East Tennessee St. L 49-65 40%     15 - 10 11 - 4 -12.7 -13.4 -2.0
  Feb 22, 2025 256   @ Mercer W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 27, 2025 119   Chattanooga W 72-71 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 113   Samford W 72-71 52%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 6.5 18.1 24.7 1st
2nd 0.1 15.7 32.9 48.6 2nd
3rd 3.6 17.6 21.2 3rd
4th 5.5 5.5 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 9.2 33.3 39.4 18.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 18.1    4.6 13.6
13-5 16.5% 6.5    0.1 3.7 2.8
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 24.7% 24.7 4.7 17.2 2.8



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 18.1% 19.1% 19.1% 13.1 0.5 2.1 0.8 0.1 14.7
13-5 39.4% 18.6% 18.6% 13.7 0.2 2.2 4.2 0.7 32.1
12-6 33.3% 11.8% 11.8% 14.1 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.1 29.4
11-7 9.2% 9.5% 9.5% 14.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 8.3
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 13.7 0.7 4.8 7.8 2.3 0.0 84.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.5% 100.0% 13.1 15.3 59.7 23.6 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.3%
Lose Out 5.0%