UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#129
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#133
Pace61.8#344
Improvement+0.0#178

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#139
First Shot+0.6#155
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#138
Layup/Dunks-3.5#299
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#145
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#53
Freethrows-0.8#230
Improvement+3.2#34

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#142
First Shot+2.7#93
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#328
Layups/Dunks+3.5#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#162
Freethrows+0.5#146
Improvement-3.1#332
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 21.4% 14.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 13.6
.500 or above 96.3% 97.9% 89.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 99.1%
Conference Champion 47.1% 52.3% 26.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round20.0% 21.4% 14.2%
Second Round1.9% 2.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 80.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 37 - 68 - 10
Quad 411 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 168   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-64 69%     1 - 0 +5.9 +4.5 +2.2
  Nov 11, 2024 37   @ SMU L 68-81 12%     1 - 1 +2.0 -2.4 +5.0
  Nov 21, 2024 56   @ Indiana L 58-69 16%     1 - 2 +1.7 -5.9 +7.2
  Nov 25, 2024 293   Long Beach St. W 71-48 82%     2 - 2 +15.4 +0.3 +17.4
  Nov 26, 2024 160   San Jose St. L 64-69 57%     2 - 3 -4.7 -6.0 +1.0
  Nov 27, 2024 131   UTEP L 58-64 51%     2 - 4 -4.1 -4.2 -0.8
  Dec 03, 2024 105   High Point W 72-68 55%     3 - 4 +4.9 +7.7 -2.0
  Dec 07, 2024 323   @ N.C. A&T W 67-55 80%     4 - 4 +5.4 -2.7 +9.3
  Dec 14, 2024 245   @ North Florida L 77-89 65%     4 - 5 -13.9 -3.8 -9.9
  Dec 21, 2024 158   @ Elon L 69-73 46%     4 - 6 -0.9 +4.7 -6.0
  Jan 01, 2025 130   @ Wofford W 68-66 40%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +6.7 +2.4 +4.5
  Jan 04, 2025 151   Furman W 84-67 65%     6 - 6 2 - 0 +15.2 +19.8 -2.7
  Jan 09, 2025 156   @ Chattanooga W 78-75 46%     7 - 6 3 - 0 +6.2 +12.7 -6.1
  Jan 11, 2025 115   @ Samford L 69-76 36%     7 - 7 3 - 1 -1.3 +2.5 -4.4
  Jan 15, 2025 352   The Citadel W 70-57 94%     8 - 7 4 - 1 -2.7 +0.5 -1.4
  Jan 18, 2025 342   @ Western Carolina W 83-55 85%     9 - 7 5 - 1 +19.2 +14.0 +7.1
  Jan 22, 2025 233   Mercer W 75-66 80%    
  Jan 25, 2025 327   @ VMI W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 29, 2025 146   East Tennessee St. W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 130   Wofford W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 05, 2025 352   @ The Citadel W 71-59 88%    
  Feb 08, 2025 342   Western Carolina W 77-61 94%    
  Feb 12, 2025 327   VMI W 76-61 92%    
  Feb 15, 2025 151   @ Furman L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 19, 2025 146   @ East Tennessee St. L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 233   @ Mercer W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 27, 2025 156   Chattanooga W 74-70 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 115   Samford W 75-73 57%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 6.0 15.3 15.8 7.9 1.8 47.1 1st
2nd 0.2 4.2 11.1 6.2 0.9 0.0 22.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 8.1 3.8 0.2 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.2 3.2 0.1 8.3 4th
5th 0.4 2.2 2.3 0.2 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 2.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.5 4.1 8.9 16.1 21.0 21.8 16.6 7.9 1.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8
16-2 99.9% 7.9    7.5 0.3
15-3 94.7% 15.8    12.6 3.1 0.1
14-4 70.4% 15.3    7.0 7.1 1.2 0.0
13-5 28.5% 6.0    0.8 2.2 2.2 0.8 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.1% 47.1 29.6 12.8 3.7 1.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.8% 37.9% 37.9% 11.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 1.1
16-2 7.9% 33.2% 33.2% 12.6 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.2 5.3
15-3 16.6% 29.4% 29.4% 13.0 0.0 1.1 2.7 1.1 0.0 11.7
14-4 21.8% 23.3% 23.3% 13.4 0.5 2.3 2.0 0.2 16.7
13-5 21.0% 18.0% 18.0% 13.7 0.1 1.3 2.0 0.4 17.2
12-6 16.1% 10.3% 10.3% 13.9 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 14.4
11-7 8.9% 8.6% 8.6% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 8.2
10-8 4.1% 10.2% 10.2% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 3.7
9-9 1.5% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.1 1.4
8-10 0.2% 9.5% 9.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.3 3.2 8.1 6.8 1.6 0.1 80.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 11.8 1.4 23.2 65.2 10.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%